KTOS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KTOS - Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.
$58.43
-4.84 (-7.65%)
▼
5d:
+1.97%
30d:
-5.65%
90d:
-34.44%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.5/10
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16 traders called KTOS this week
95% bullish • 1 bearish
95% bullish • 1 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: KTOS appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -15.8% annual earnings decline despite 131% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: KTOS appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -15.8% annual earnings decline despite 131% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$52.28
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$32.46
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KTOS is currently trading at $58.43, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $54.89 to $62.43. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 54.4) compared to its historical average (91.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 15.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 130.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KTOS is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $52.65, while resistance sits at $66.83. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 7.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: KTOS has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $113.05 (+93.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KTOS is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $52.65, while resistance sits at $66.83. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 7.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: KTOS has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $113.05 (+93.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$54.89 -
$62.43
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-7.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 93.5% below Wall St target ($113.05)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$54.89 -
$62.43
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$52.65
Resistance Level
$66.83
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
54.41
Wall Street Target
$113.05
(+93.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
130.6%
Profit Margin
2.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-15.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
54.4 vs 91.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-15.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$52.59
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$47.33
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$42.60
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 54→91)
$71.31
(+22%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 54.4, Growth: 41.2%)
$164.48
(+182%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.9, Growth: 41.2%)
$66.23
(+13%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.6, Growth: 41.2%)
$56.29
(-4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (149x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (54x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 149.25 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.44
Bull Case
$78.72
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 156.7
Base Case
$65.19
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 149.3
Bear Case
$49.87
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 134.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 54.4 to 91.1
Stabilization Target:
$97.82
(+67.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+67.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 10:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:51 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KTOS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Scot B Jarvis
SELL
5417 shares
2026-04-16
Marie Mendoza
SELL
1500 shares
2026-04-15
Phillip D Carrai
SELL
6500 shares
2026-04-15
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's KTOS price and gamma walls.
