KTOS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KTOS - Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.
$38.68
0.41 (1.07%)
▲
5d:
-4.3%
30d:
-17.74%
90d:
-21.78%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
9d
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 23, 2026 at $38.68 · last confirmed Oct 23, 2026
Strength: 7.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: KTOS shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: KTOS shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$54.90
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$34.09
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KTOS is currently trading at $38.68, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $39.97 to $46.44. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 34.3) compared to its historical average (71.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 21.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 7.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KTOS is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $36.37, while resistance sits at $43.07.
Market Sentiment: KTOS scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $96.88 (+150.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KTOS is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $36.37, while resistance sits at $43.07.
Market Sentiment: KTOS scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $96.88 (+150.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$39.97 -
$46.44
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding KTOS? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 150.5% below Wall St target ($96.88)
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$39.97 -
$46.44
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.37
Resistance Level
$43.07
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
34.30
Wall Street Target
$96.88
(+150.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
30.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7.4%
Profit Margin
2.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-21.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
34.3 vs 71.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-21.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$34.81
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$31.33
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$28.20
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 34→72)
$58.94
(+52%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 34.3, Growth: 37.5%)
$100.64
(+160%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 37.5%)
$58.27
(+51%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 37.5%)
$49.53
(+28%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (45x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (34x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 45.25 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.85
Bull Case
$46.71
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 47.5
Base Case
$38.68
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 45.3
Bear Case
$29.59
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 40.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 34.3 to 71.7
Stabilization Target:
$80.86
(+109.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+109.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 24, 2026 5:23 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:23 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:23 AM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is KTOS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced KTOS Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's KTOS price and gamma walls.
