KTOS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KTOS - Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.
$50.36
3.40 (7.24%)
▲
5d:
+0.04%
30d:
-14.32%
90d:
-31.53%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
21d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.6/10
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4 traders called KTOS this week
71% bullish • 2 bearish
71% bullish • 2 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: KTOS appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -18.0% annual earnings decline despite 131% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: KTOS appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -18.0% annual earnings decline despite 131% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$53.12
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$32.99
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KTOS is currently trading at $50.36, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $48.49 to $56.49. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 46.1) compared to its historical average (83.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 18.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 130.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KTOS is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $46.34, while resistance sits at $58.88. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 7.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $109.33 (+117.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KTOS is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $46.34, while resistance sits at $58.88. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 7.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $109.33 (+117.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$48.49 -
$56.49
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+7.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading 117.1% below Wall St target ($109.33)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$48.49 -
$56.49
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$46.34
Resistance Level
$58.88
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
46.15
Wall Street Target
$109.33
(+117.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
130.6%
Profit Margin
2.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-18.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
46.2 vs 83.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-18.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$45.32
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$40.79
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$36.71
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 46→84)
$66.58
(+32%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 46.2, Growth: 40.5%)
$139.65
(+177%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 40.5%)
$65.90
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 40.5%)
$56.02
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (80x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (46x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 80.00 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.63
Bull Case
$60.81
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 84.0
Base Case
$50.36
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 80.0
Bear Case
$38.53
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 72.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 46.2 to 83.7
Stabilization Target:
$91.33
(+81.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+81.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 15, 2026 8:06 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:06 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:06 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KTOS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Scot B Jarvis
SELL
5417 shares
2026-04-16
Marie Mendoza
SELL
1500 shares
2026-04-15
Phillip D Carrai
SELL
6500 shares
2026-04-15
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's KTOS price and gamma walls.
