MCK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MCK - McKesson Corporation
$750.63
-29.17 (-3.74%)
▼
5d:
-4.64%
30d:
-1.48%
90d:
-16.5%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MCK shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MCK shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$1306.66
Based on 8.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$811.33
7.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MCK is currently trading at $750.63, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $742.02 to $778.85. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.0) compared to its historical average (19.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 37.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCK is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $729.19. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $941.40 (+25.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCK is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $729.19. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $941.40 (+25.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$742.02 -
$778.85
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.7%)
- BULLISH: Trading 25.4% below Wall St target ($941.40)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$742.02 -
$778.85
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$729.19
Resistance Level
$787.26
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.02
Wall Street Target
$941.40
(+25.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
37.2%
Profit Margin
1.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.0 vs 19.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$714.60
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$680.30
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$647.64
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→20)
$749.69
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 13.1%)
$1388.13
(+85%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.0, Growth: 13.1%)
$1084.67
(+45%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.5, Growth: 13.1%)
$921.97
(+23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.30 | Current EPS (TTM): $38.41
Bull Case
$985.00
(+31%)
Analyst growth 14.8%, PE expands to 22.3
Base Case
$895.45
(+19%)
Market implied 14.8%, PE stable at 20.3
Bear Case
$530.26
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.0 to 19.7
Stabilization Target:
$868.90
(+15.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 19, 2026 2:01 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:01 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:01 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MCK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
Michele Lau
SELL
2725 shares
2026-03-02
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-24
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MCK price and gamma walls.
