MGM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MGM - MGM RESORTS INTERNATIONAL
$44.57
-1.09 (-2.39%)
▼
5d:
-2.13%
30d:
-6.21%
90d:
+14.46%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MGM shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MGM shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$39.75
Based on 2.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$24.68
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MGM is currently trading at $44.57, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $45.60 to $47.70. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 21.9) compared to its historical average (17.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 8.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $43.94. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $50.41 (+13.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $43.94. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $50.41 (+13.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$45.60 -
$47.70
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
80.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($50.41)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 8.9% growth with 4.2% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$45.60 -
$47.70
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$43.94
Resistance Level
$47.16
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.94
Wall Street Target
$50.41
(+13.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-5.9%
Profit Margin
1.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+8.9% premium
PE vs Historical
21.9 vs 17.0
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+8.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$48.54
(+9%)
2-Year Target
$52.86
(+19%)
3-Year Target
$57.56
(+29%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$44.61
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 1.7%)
$46.83
(+5%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 1.7%)
$44.26
(-1%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.0, Growth: 1.7%)
$36.29
(-19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 22.94 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.94
Bull Case
$53.82
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 24.1
Base Case
$44.57
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 22.9
Bear Case
$34.10
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 20.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 6:19 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:19 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:19 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MGM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
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