MORN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MORN - Morningstar, Inc.
$185.76
1.85 (1.01%)
▲
5d:
+2.05%
30d:
+10.8%
90d:
-2.31%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 5, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MORN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MORN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$324.66
Based on 8.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$201.59
7.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MORN is currently trading at $185.76, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $169.15 to $183.88. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.7) compared to its historical average (15.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 50.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MORN is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $166.41, while resistance sits at $196.92.
Market Sentiment: MORN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $246.00 (+32.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MORN is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $166.41, while resistance sits at $196.92.
Market Sentiment: MORN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $246.00 (+32.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$169.15 -
$183.88
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
69.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 32.4% below Wall St target ($246.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$169.15 -
$183.88
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$9.41
(5.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$166.41
Resistance Level
$196.92
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.72
Wall Street Target
$246.00
(+32.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
50.0%
Profit Margin
16.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.7 vs 15.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$177.59
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$169.77
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$162.30
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→16)
$185.68
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 13.8%)
$436.82
(+135%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.7, Growth: 13.8%)
$273.60
(+47%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.7, Growth: 13.8%)
$232.56
(+25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.90 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.78
Bull Case
$281.39
(+52%)
Analyst growth 38.4%, PE expands to 20.8
Base Case
$255.81
(+38%)
Market implied 38.4%, PE stable at 18.9
Bear Case
$125.68
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.7 to 15.7
Stabilization Target:
$212.52
(+14.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 06, 2026 5:27 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:27 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:27 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MORN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
19
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Michael Holt
BUY
1000 shares
2026-03-04
Joseph D Mansueto
SELL
3122 shares
2026-03-02
Joseph D Mansueto
SELL
7250 shares
2026-02-26
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Advanced MORN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MORN price and gamma walls.
