Morningstar (MORN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MORN - Morningstar, Inc.
$183.55
-7.66 (-4.01%)
▼
5d:
-6.34%
30d:
-12.51%
90d:
+10.32%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MORN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MORN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$315.11
Based on 8.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$195.66
6.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MORN is currently trading at $183.55, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $192.37 to $212.65. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.2) compared to its historical average (15.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 35.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MORN is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $183.21. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (13th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $236.67 (+28.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MORN is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $183.21. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (13th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $236.67 (+28.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$192.37 -
$212.65
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
13th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MORN? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 13th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (48/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading 28.9% below Wall St target ($236.67)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (48/100) — watch for confirmation
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-6.3%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$192.37 -
$212.65
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$11.54
(6.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$183.21
Resistance Level
$207.72
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.17
Wall Street Target
$236.67
(+28.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
35.4%
Profit Margin
16.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.2 vs 15.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$175.84
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$168.46
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$161.38
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→15)
$183.82
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 13.2%)
$412.14
(+125%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.2, Growth: 13.2%)
$266.05
(+45%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.2, Growth: 13.2%)
$226.14
(+23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.73 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.72
Bull Case
$271.80
(+42%)
Analyst growth 30.0%, PE expands to 19.5
Base Case
$247.09
(+29%)
Market implied 30.0%, PE stable at 17.7
Bear Case
$129.23
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.2 to 15.0
Stabilization Target:
$209.07
(+13.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 5:26 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:26 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:26 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MORN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced MORN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MORN price and gamma walls.
