Is MORN stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, MORN is currently a HOLD with low confidence. 📊 HOLD: MORN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of MORN stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for MORN to be between $165.85 and $185.73. The current price is $156.21.

What is the analyst price target for MORN?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for MORN is $234.00. This implies a potential upside of 49.8% from current levels.

MORN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

MORN - Morningstar, Inc.

INVESTMENT ADVICE

$156.21

2.80 (1.83%) ▲

5d: -9.77%

30d: -9.9%

90d: -10.22%

HOLD

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Jul 29, 2026

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MORN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 12.8%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$311.32

Based on 8.4% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$193.31

19.2% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.5x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: MORN is currently trading at $156.21, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $165.85 to $185.73. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.6) compared to its historical average (15.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 50.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, MORN is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $173.91. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $234.00 (+49.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $165.85 - $185.73

Company Quality Score 50/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 83.5%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 49.8% below Wall St target ($234.00)
CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -9.8% 5-day decline

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $165.85 - $185.73

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Expected Move (7 Days) ±$7.74 (5.0%)

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $173.91

Resistance Level $196.92

Current Trend Downtrend

Technical data as of Jun 9, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 11.62

Wall Street Target $234.00 (+49.8%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 10.8%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 50.0%

Profit Margin 16.1%

Valuation Discount vs History -9.1% cheaper

PE vs Historical 11.6 vs 15.5 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -9.1% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $141.99 (-9%)

2-Year Target $129.07 (-17%)

3-Year Target $117.33 (-25%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 12→16) $156.55 (+0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.8%) $420.20 (+169%)

Base: (SPY PE: 11.6, Growth: 12.8%) $224.12 (+44%)

Bear: (PE: 9.9, Growth: 12.8%) $190.50 (+22%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 15.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.79

Bull Case $231.79 (+48%)

Analyst growth 37.4%, PE expands to 17.2

Base Case $210.72 (+35%)

Market implied 37.4%, PE stable at 15.7

Bear Case $104.32 (-33%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.3

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.6 to 15.5

Stabilization Target: $208.43 (+33.4%)

PE Expansion Potential: +33.4%

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Last updated: June 23, 2026 6:05 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:05 PM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

Sells

Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Michael Holt BUY 1000 shares 2026-03-04

Joseph D Mansueto SELL 3122 shares 2026-03-02

Joseph D Mansueto SELL 7250 shares 2026-02-26

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