MPAA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MPAA - Motorcar Parts of America, Inc.
$14.68
4.09 (38.62%)
▲
5d:
+38.36%
30d:
+27.99%
90d:
+44.63%
SELL
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 5, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 08, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⚠️ CAUTION: MPAA is extended with warning signals. Consider taking profits or waiting for better entry.
⚠️ CAUTION: MPAA is extended with warning signals. Consider taking profits or waiting for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.68
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.46
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MPAA is currently trading at $14.68, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.41 to $11.95. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.9) is in line with its historical norms (7.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPAA is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $11.38. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 38.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: MPAA has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.33 (+73.1%). Given the valuation headwinds and technical position, caution is warranted at these levels.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPAA is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $11.38. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 38.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: MPAA has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.33 (+73.1%). Given the valuation headwinds and technical position, caution is warranted at these levels.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$10.41 -
$11.95
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
36th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
32.7%
Protect Your Profits
Before you sell your MPAA shares, consider hedging with options to lock in your gains without triggering a tax event.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+22.8% above its trading range)
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 36th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+38.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 73.1% below Wall St target ($18.33)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.41 -
$11.95
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.57
(10.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.38
Resistance Level
$11.39
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.94
Wall Street Target
$18.33
(+73.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-9.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-18.2%
Profit Margin
0.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.9 vs 7.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.41
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$10.23
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$10.06
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
$10.57
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 103.3%)
$112.77
(+965%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.9, Growth: 103.3%)
$35.74
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.9, Growth: 103.3%)
$30.38
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 8.87 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.19
Bull Case
$12.79
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 9.3
Base Case
$10.59
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 8.9
Bear Case
$8.10
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 8.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.9 to 7.3
Stabilization Target:
$11.13
(+5.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 08, 2026 11:41 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:41 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:41 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MPAA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
David Bryan
BUY
1000 shares
2026-02-12
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Advanced MPAA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MPAA price and gamma walls.
