MPAA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MPAA - Motorcar Parts of America, Inc.
$11.95
0.18 (1.53%)
▲
5d:
-4.09%
30d:
-11.74%
90d:
+10.04%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 10, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MPAA trades at premium valuation expecting 6.9% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: MPAA trades at premium valuation expecting 6.9% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$4.15
Based on -14.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$2.58
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MPAA is currently trading at $11.95, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.37 to $14.13. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 10.3) compared to its historical average (8.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPAA is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $10.05, while resistance sits at $12.83.
Market Sentiment: MPAA scores 67/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.67 (+56.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPAA is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $10.05, while resistance sits at $12.83.
Market Sentiment: MPAA scores 67/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.67 (+56.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$12.37 -
$14.13
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
95.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MPAA? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (67/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 56.2% below Wall St target ($18.67)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 6.9% growth with -10.8% revenue growth
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 13% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.37 -
$14.13
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.16
(9.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.05
Resistance Level
$12.83
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.30
Wall Street Target
$18.67
(+56.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-10.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-18.2%
Profit Margin
-0.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.9% premium
PE vs Historical
10.3 vs 8.4
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.77
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$13.66
(+14%)
3-Year Target
$14.60
(+22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$11.90
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: -33.3%)
$16.97
(+42%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.3, Growth: -33.3%)
$8.71
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.4, Growth: -33.3%)
$7.10
(-41%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 7:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:51 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MPAA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced MPAA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MPAA price and gamma walls.
