MPAA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MPAA - Motorcar Parts of America, Inc.
$14.95
-0.17 (-1.12%)
▼
5d:
+0.67%
30d:
+37.66%
90d:
+39.2%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 10, 2026
Get Alerted When MPAA Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MPAA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 20.0% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MPAA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 20.0% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$3.71
Based on -14.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$2.30
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MPAA is currently trading at $14.95, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.49 to $14.42. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 13.0) compared to its historical average (7.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 20.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPAA is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $15.30. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MPAA has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.67 (+23.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPAA is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $15.30. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MPAA has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.67 (+23.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$10.49 -
$14.42
Company Quality Score
68/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.5% below Wall St target ($18.67)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 20.0% growth with 9.9% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.49 -
$14.42
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.85
(5.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.38
Resistance Level
$15.30
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.03
Wall Street Target
$18.67
(+23.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-18.2%
Profit Margin
1.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+20.0% premium
PE vs Historical
13.0 vs 7.5
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+20.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$18.14
(+20%)
2-Year Target
$21.77
(+44%)
3-Year Target
$26.13
(+73%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$15.03
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -33.3%)
$18.42
(+22%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.0, Growth: -33.3%)
$11.02
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.5, Growth: -33.3%)
$6.34
(-58%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.77 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.62
Bull Case
$31.61
(+109%)
Analyst growth 87.1%, PE expands to 27.3
Base Case
$28.74
(+90%)
Market implied 87.1%, PE stable at 24.8
Bear Case
$10.44
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 10:40 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:40 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:40 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is MPAA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
David Bryan
BUY
1000 shares
2026-02-12
Top Rated Auto Parts Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Auto Parts by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
AZO
AutoZone Inc |
STRONG BUY
29 analysts |
$3969 | 57 HOLD |
|
ORLY
O’Reilly Automotive Inc |
STRONG BUY
28 analysts |
$110 | 57 HOLD |
|
APTV
Aptiv PLC |
STRONG BUY
21 analysts |
$78 | 50 HOLD |
|
MBLY
Mobileye Global Inc. Cla… |
BUY
28 analysts |
$13 | 50 HOLD |
|
BWA
BorgWarner Inc |
STRONG BUY
18 analysts |
$76 | 54 HOLD |
Advanced MPAA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MPAA price and gamma walls.
