O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ORLY - O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.
$84.90
-0.13 (-0.15%)
âŧ
5d:
-1.41%
30d:
-2.38%
90d:
+0.78%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
23d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ORLY is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -3.5% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ORLY is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -3.5% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$131.34
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$81.55
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ORLY is currently trading at $84.90, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $84.72 to $88.36. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 23.3) compared to its historical average (25.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 10.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORLY is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $82.83. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 51/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $107.35 (+26.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORLY is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $82.83. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 51/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $107.35 (+26.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$84.72 -
$88.36
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ORLY? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (51/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.4% below Wall St target ($107.35)
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$84.72 -
$88.36
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$82.83
Resistance Level
$87.45
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.27
Wall Street Target
$107.35
(+26.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
10.3%
Profit Margin
14.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
23.3 vs 25.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$81.93
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$79.06
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$76.29
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23â26)
$84.90
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.3, Growth: 11.2%)
$116.82
(+38%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 11.2%)
$102.39
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 11.2%)
$87.03
(+3%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.08 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.14
Bull Case
$108.66
(+28%)
Analyst growth 16.2%, PE expands to 29.8
Base Case
$98.78
(+16%)
Market implied 16.2%, PE stable at 27.1
Bear Case
$57.82
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 23.3 to 25.9
Stabilization Target:
$94.48
(+11.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 7:02 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:02 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:02 PM
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Technical Signals Check
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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