ORLY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ORLY - O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.
$89.76
0.41 (0.46%)
▲
5d:
-0.92%
30d:
-0.54%
90d:
-7.15%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ORLY shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly high pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ORLY shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly high pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$131.71
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$81.78
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ORLY is currently trading at $89.76, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $85.18 to $90.25. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 24.6) is in line with its historical norms (26.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 10.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORLY is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $85.31, while resistance sits at $93.24.
Market Sentiment: ORLY has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $108.17 (+20.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORLY is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $85.31, while resistance sits at $93.24.
Market Sentiment: ORLY has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $108.17 (+20.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$85.18 -
$90.25
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.5% below Wall St target ($108.17)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$85.18 -
$90.25
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$85.31
Resistance Level
$93.24
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.60
Wall Street Target
$108.17
(+20.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
10.3%
Profit Margin
14.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
24.6 vs 26.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$87.79
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$85.85
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$83.97
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 25→26)
$89.78
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.6, Growth: 11.3%)
$123.69
(+38%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 11.3%)
$104.25
(+16%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 11.3%)
$88.61
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (25x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.37 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.15
Bull Case
$113.87
(+27%)
Analyst growth 15.9%, PE expands to 31.2
Base Case
$103.52
(+15%)
Market implied 15.9%, PE stable at 28.4
Bear Case
$60.76
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 24.6 to 26.3
Stabilization Target:
$95.98
(+6.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 12:41 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:41 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:41 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ORLY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
Jonathan L. Jackson
SELL
2026-03-19
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