O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ORLY - O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.
$85.16
-2.06 (-2.36%)
▼
5d:
-0.85%
30d:
-6.47%
90d:
-5.65%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Sep 14, 2026 at $86.72 · last confirmed Sep 14, 2026
Strength: 6.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ORLY trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ORLY trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$131.71
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$81.78
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ORLY is currently trading at $85.16, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $86.73 to $91.49. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 23.3) compared to its historical average (26.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 10.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORLY is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $84.84. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ORLY scores 76/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $107.80 (+26.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORLY is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $84.84. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ORLY scores 76/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $107.80 (+26.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$86.73 -
$91.49
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (76/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.6% below Wall St target ($107.80)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 76/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$86.73 -
$91.49
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$84.84
Resistance Level
$89.23
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.34
Wall Street Target
$107.80
(+26.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
10.3%
Profit Margin
14.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
23.3 vs 26.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$82.09
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$79.14
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$76.29
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→26)
$85.00
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.3, Growth: 11.3%)
$117.35
(+38%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 11.3%)
$101.53
(+19%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.2, Growth: 11.3%)
$86.30
(+1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.15
Bull Case
$111.15
(+31%)
Analyst growth 15.9%, PE expands to 30.5
Base Case
$101.05
(+19%)
Market implied 15.9%, PE stable at 27.7
Bear Case
$59.31
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 23.3 to 26.0
Stabilization Target:
$94.88
(+11.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 16, 2026 2:15 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:15 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:15 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ORLY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
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