O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$92.19
+0.63 (+0.69%)
▲
5d:
+2.56%
30d:
+4.17%
90d:
+2.17%
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70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
0d
Protect ORLY Gains
Updated Nov 13, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (49%)
Quality Score
51/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$86.67 – $91.25
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
25.1x
FAIR
vs 25.6x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$106.46
+15.5% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$88.45 / $93.75
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ORLY shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 30, 2026 at $89.72 · last confirmed Nov 9, 2026
Strength: 4.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$130.30
Based on 7.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$80.91
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ORLY is currently trading at $92.19, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $86.67 to $91.25. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 25.1) is in line with its historical norms (25.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 14.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORLY is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $93.75. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $106.46 (+15.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORLY is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $93.75. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $106.46 (+15.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$86.67 -
$91.25
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
48.6%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$86.67 -
$91.25
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$88.45
Resistance Level
$93.75
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 13, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding ORLY? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($106.46)
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
25.13
Wall Street Target
$106.46
(+15.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.1%
Profit Margin
14.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
25.1 vs 25.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$91.54
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$90.90
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$90.27
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 25→26)
$91.96
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 25.1, Growth: 10.6%)
$124.59
(+35%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 10.6%)
$98.47
(+7%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 10.6%)
$83.70
(-9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (25x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.09 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.26
Bull Case
$113.35
(+23%)
Analyst growth 12.5%, PE expands to 30.9
Base Case
$103.04
(+12%)
Market implied 12.5%, PE stable at 28.1
Bear Case
$62.26
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 25.1 to 25.6
Stabilization Target:
$93.92
(+1.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.9%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (ORLY)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 29, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) reported strong Q3 earnings, beating estimates with EPS of $0.97 and revenue of $5.12 billion. The company attributed the results to market share gains and raised its full-year guidance.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
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Last updated: November 14, 2026 5:12 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:12 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:12 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ORLY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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