MPC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MPC - MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION
$296.88
13.14 (4.63%)
▲
5d:
+10.37%
30d:
+12.76%
90d:
+33.36%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
20d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.3/10
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1 traders called MPC this week
0% bullish • 1 bearish
0% bullish • 1 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: MPC is 8.1% above its trading range ($274.76). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: MPC is 8.1% above its trading range ($274.76). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$175.91
Based on -9.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$109.22
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MPC is currently trading at $296.88, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $248.77 to $274.76. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.4) is in line with its historical norms (12.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 350.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $272.46. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: MPC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $272.46. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: MPC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$248.77 -
$274.76
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
Protect Your Profits
MPC is technically overbought (RSI 75). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+8.1% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.6%)
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($275.65)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$248.77 -
$274.76
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$241.36
Resistance Level
$272.46
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.39
Wall Street Target
$275.65
(-7.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
350.7%
Profit Margin
3.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.4 vs 12.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$294.50
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$292.15
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$289.81
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→13)
$297.12
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -23.7%)
$380.52
(+28%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.4, Growth: -23.7%)
$216.43
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.5, Growth: -23.7%)
$183.96
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $15.18
Bull Case
$492.76
(+66%)
Analyst growth 57.9%, PE expands to 20.6
Base Case
$447.96
(+51%)
Market implied 57.9%, PE stable at 18.7
Bear Case
$192.94
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.4 to 12.7
Stabilization Target:
$304.36
(+2.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 8:16 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:16 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:16 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MPC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
1626 shares
2026-03-13
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SELL
1037 shares
2026-03-12
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SELL
1810 shares
2026-03-11
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