PKG
Packaging Corp of America
PAPERBOARD CONTAINERS & BOXES
Packaging Corp of America (PKG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$253.94
-0.29 (-0.11%)
âŧ
5d:
-2.02%
30d:
+9.62%
90d:
-1.21%
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70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
0d
Protect PKG Gains
Updated Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (50%)
Quality Score
42/100
Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
30-Day Fair Range
$232.36 â $254.47
Position: SLIGHTLY HIGH
Forward P/E & Valuation
17.9x
FAIR
vs 18.3x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$269.22
+5.9% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$242.11 / $262.59
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: PKG is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.8% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$507.23
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$314.95
19.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PKG is currently trading at $253.94, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $232.36 to $254.47. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.9) is in line with its historical norms (18.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 16.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PKG is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $242.11, while resistance sits at $262.59.
Market Sentiment: PKG scores 39/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PKG is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $242.11, while resistance sits at $262.59.
Market Sentiment: PKG scores 39/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$232.36 -
$254.47
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
50.0%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$232.36 -
$254.47
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
Âą$10.09
(4.0%)
Support Level
$242.11
Resistance Level
$262.59
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding PKG? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (39/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($269.22)
- WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.86
Wall Street Target
$269.22
(+5.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
16.7%
Profit Margin
7.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.9 vs 18.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$252.20
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$250.18
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$248.18
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18â18)
$254.27
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 34.1%)
$682.10
(+168%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.9, Growth: 34.1%)
$613.45
(+141%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.2, Growth: 34.1%)
$521.44
(+105%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.37 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.11
Bull Case
$491.15
(+93%)
Analyst growth 75.5%, PE expands to 34.5
Base Case
$446.50
(+76%)
Market implied 75.5%, PE stable at 31.4
Bear Case
$173.00
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.9 to 18.3
Stabilization Target:
$260.47
(+2.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.5%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (PKG)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Sep 24, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Smurfit Westrock's acquisition of CMPC's Chilean containerboard business positions the company for growth in Latin America, with expectations of $7 billion in adjusted EBITDA by 2030.
Key Retail Themes:
company growth through acquisitions
asset optimization and business improvement
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 3:11 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:11 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:11 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PKG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced PKG Option Strategies
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