RIO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RIO - Rio Tinto plc
$105.30
3.13 (3.06%)
▲
5d:
+10.05%
30d:
+15.07%
90d:
+0.52%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: RIO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: RIO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$114.51
Based on 2.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$71.10
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RIO is currently trading at $105.30, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $91.51 to $100.52. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.9) is in line with its historical norms (11.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RIO is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $105.39. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RIO is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $105.39. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$91.51 -
$100.52
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (43/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.1%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($105.85)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$91.51 -
$100.52
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$95.39
Resistance Level
$105.39
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.90
Wall Street Target
$105.85
(+0.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
46.9%
Profit Margin
19.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.6% premium
PE vs Historical
11.9 vs 11.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$106.98
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$108.70
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$110.44
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$104.88
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 1.5%)
$185.66
(+76%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.9, Growth: 1.5%)
$110.06
(+5%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.1, Growth: 1.5%)
$93.56
(-11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.83 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.39
Bull Case
$134.59
(+28%)
Analyst growth 19.8%, PE expands to 15.2
Base Case
$122.36
(+16%)
Market implied 19.8%, PE stable at 13.8
Bear Case
$69.48
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 9:08 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:08 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:08 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RIO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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