RIO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RIO - Rio Tinto plc
$100.69
-4.71 (-4.47%)
▼
5d:
-5.36%
30d:
-4.57%
90d:
+11.62%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 5, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: RIO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: RIO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$129.75
Based on 5.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$80.56
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RIO is currently trading at $100.69, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $100.49 to $108.44. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.4) is in line with its historical norms (11.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RIO is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $101.08. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RIO is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $101.08. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$100.49 -
$108.44
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.5%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($101.30)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.4% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$100.49 -
$108.44
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$101.08
Resistance Level
$112.21
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.36
Wall Street Target
$101.30
(+0.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-5.6%
Profit Margin
17.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.4 vs 11.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$100.19
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$99.69
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$99.19
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→12)
$100.39
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 5.9%)
$230.91
(+129%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.4, Growth: 5.9%)
$119.74
(+19%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.7, Growth: 5.9%)
$101.78
(+1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.61 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.08
Bull Case
$161.92
(+61%)
Analyst growth 45.8%, PE expands to 18.3
Base Case
$147.20
(+46%)
Market implied 45.8%, PE stable at 16.6
Bear Case
$68.67
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.4 to 11.5
Stabilization Target:
$101.92
(+1.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 07, 2026 11:48 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:48 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:48 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RIO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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