SPH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SPH - Suburban Propane Partners L P
$17.65
0.04 (0.23%)
▲
5d:
-0.56%
30d:
-3.76%
90d:
-12.54%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SPH trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.4% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SPH trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.4% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.59
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.51
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SPH is currently trading at $17.65, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.65 to $18.47. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.4) compared to its historical average (9.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPH is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.41. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SPH scores 80/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPH is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.41. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SPH scores 80/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$17.65 -
$18.47
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
85.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (80/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($17.00)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 80/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$17.65 -
$18.47
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.41
Resistance Level
$17.98
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.41
Wall Street Target
$17.00
(-2.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-1.9%
Profit Margin
9.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.4 vs 9.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.72
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$15.98
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$15.28
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→10)
$17.45
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 7.8%)
$52.36
(+199%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.4, Growth: 7.8%)
$21.89
(+25%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.1, Growth: 7.8%)
$18.61
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.20 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.93
Bull Case
$21.04
(+19%)
Analyst growth 7.8%, PE expands to 10.1
Base Case
$19.13
(+8%)
Market implied 7.8%, PE stable at 9.2
Bear Case
$12.07
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.4 to 9.6
Stabilization Target:
$19.97
(+14.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 8:36 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:36 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:36 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SPH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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