SPH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SPH - Suburban Propane Partners L P
$17.17
0.18 (1.05%)
▲
5d:
-1.61%
30d:
-14.92%
90d:
-15.22%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SPH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SPH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.56
Based on 0.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.15
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SPH is currently trading at $17.17, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.15 to $20.26. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.6) compared to its historical average (9.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPH is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $19.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SPH has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPH is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $19.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SPH has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$18.15 -
$20.26
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($17.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$18.15 -
$20.26
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$19.00
Resistance Level
$20.10
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.62
Wall Street Target
$17.00
(+0.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-6.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-1.9%
Profit Margin
9.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.6 vs 9.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.29
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$15.63
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$14.98
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$17.03
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -3.4%)
$38.64
(+127%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.6, Growth: -3.4%)
$15.30
(-10%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.3, Growth: -3.4%)
$13.01
(-24%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 8.44 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.96
Bull Case
$18.30
(+8%)
Analyst growth 0.5%, PE expands to 9.3
Base Case
$16.63
(-2%)
Market implied 0.5%, PE stable at 8.4
Bear Case
$11.25
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.6 to 9.8
Stabilization Target:
$19.31
(+13.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 10:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:29 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:29 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SPH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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