SPH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SPH - Suburban Propane Partners L P
$17.20
-0.19 (-1.09%)
▼
5d:
-1.83%
30d:
-2.88%
90d:
-9.23%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SPH shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SPH shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.59
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.51
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SPH is currently trading at $17.20, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.37 to $17.94. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.4) compared to its historical average (9.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPH is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.32. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 46/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPH is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.32. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 46/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$17.37 -
$17.94
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (46/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($17.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$17.37 -
$17.94
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.32
Resistance Level
$17.85
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 10, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.36
Wall Street Target
$17.00
(-2.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-1.9%
Profit Margin
9.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.4 vs 9.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.62
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$15.89
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$15.19
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→10)
$17.45
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 7.8%)
$52.52
(+202%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.4, Growth: 7.8%)
$21.77
(+25%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.1, Growth: 7.8%)
$18.50
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.98 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.94
Bull Case
$20.54
(+18%)
Analyst growth 7.2%, PE expands to 9.9
Base Case
$18.68
(+7%)
Market implied 7.2%, PE stable at 9.0
Bear Case
$11.85
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.4 to 9.6
Stabilization Target:
$19.97
(+14.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 11, 2026 1:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:40 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SPH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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