SPH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SPH - Suburban Propane Partners L P
$17.30
-0.11 (-0.63%)
▼
5d:
+1.65%
30d:
+2.85%
90d:
-5.67%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 12, 2026
20d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SPH shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SPH shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.03
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.16
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SPH is currently trading at $17.30, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.62 to $17.22. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.3) compared to its historical average (9.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPH is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.88. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SPH scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPH is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.88. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SPH scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$16.62 -
$17.22
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
23.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (38/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($17.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.62 -
$17.22
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.88
Resistance Level
$17.51
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.32
Wall Street Target
$17.00
(-1.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-1.9%
Profit Margin
9.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.3 vs 9.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.63
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$15.98
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$15.35
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$17.35
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 7.8%)
$51.71
(+199%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.3, Growth: 7.8%)
$21.66
(+25%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.1, Growth: 7.8%)
$18.41
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.02 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.93
Bull Case
$20.64
(+19%)
Analyst growth 7.8%, PE expands to 9.9
Base Case
$18.76
(+9%)
Market implied 7.8%, PE stable at 9.0
Bear Case
$11.84
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.3 to 9.4
Stabilization Target:
$19.55
(+13.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 21, 2026 9:04 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:04 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:04 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is SPH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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