SPH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SPH - Suburban Propane Partners L P
$16.39
-0.05 (-0.30%)
▼
5d:
-0.55%
30d:
-6.77%
90d:
-6.4%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 12, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SPH shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SPH shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.31
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.34
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SPH is currently trading at $16.39, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.67 to $17.57. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.9) compared to its historical average (9.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPH is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.25. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SPH scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPH is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.25. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SPH scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$16.67 -
$17.57
Company Quality Score
39/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($17.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 39/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.67 -
$17.57
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.25
Resistance Level
$17.24
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.90
Wall Street Target
$17.00
(+3.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-1.9%
Profit Margin
9.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.9 vs 9.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.49
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$14.59
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$13.74
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→10)
$16.52
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 7.8%)
$53.11
(+223%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.9, Growth: 7.8%)
$20.58
(+25%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.7, Growth: 7.8%)
$17.49
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.52 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.95
Bull Case
$19.49
(+19%)
Analyst growth 6.7%, PE expands to 9.4
Base Case
$17.72
(+8%)
Market implied 6.7%, PE stable at 8.5
Bear Case
$11.29
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.9 to 9.5
Stabilization Target:
$19.76
(+20.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 01, 2026 5:01 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:01 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:01 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is SPH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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