SPH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SPH - Suburban Propane Partners L P
$18.56
0.22 (1.20%)
▲
5d:
+2.43%
30d:
+9.82%
90d:
-4.67%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
10d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SPH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SPH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.36
Based on 0.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.02
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SPH is currently trading at $18.56, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.19 to $18.31. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.4) is in line with its historical norms (9.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPH is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $18.72. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SPH has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPH is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $18.72. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SPH has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$17.19 -
$18.31
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($17.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$17.19 -
$18.31
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.00
Resistance Level
$18.72
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 24, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.42
Wall Street Target
$17.00
(-8.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-6.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-1.9%
Profit Margin
9.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.4 vs 9.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$18.39
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$18.23
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$18.06
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$18.60
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.8, Growth: -3.4%)
$36.92
(+99%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.4, Growth: -3.4%)
$16.71
(-10%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.0, Growth: -3.4%)
$14.21
(-24%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 9.41 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.95
Bull Case
$20.38
(+10%)
Analyst growth 1.0%, PE expands to 10.4
Base Case
$18.53
(0%)
Market implied 1.0%, PE stable at 9.4
Bear Case
$12.47
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.4 to 9.7
Stabilization Target:
$19.11
(+3.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 26, 2026 3:58 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:58 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:58 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SPH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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