ATO
Atmos Energy Corporation
NATURAL GAS DISTRIBUTION
Atmos Energy (ATO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$175.65
+0.28 (+0.16%)
▲
5d:
-0.45%
30d:
+7.45%
90d:
+3.35%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (39%)
Quality Score
30/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$162.84 – $174.19
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
19.4x
FAIR
vs 19.7x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$182.73
+4.0% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$170.58 / $181.51
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ATO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$231.56
Based on 5.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$143.78
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ATO is currently trading at $175.65, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $162.84 to $174.19. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.4) is in line with its historical norms (19.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 23.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ATO is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $170.58. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ATO scores 29/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ATO is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $170.58. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ATO scores 29/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$162.84 -
$174.19
Company Quality Score
30/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
38.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$162.84 -
$174.19
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$3.91
(2.2%)
Support Level
$170.58
Resistance Level
$181.51
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (29/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($182.73)
- WARNING: Composite score 30/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.43
Wall Street Target
$182.73
(+4.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
23.3%
Profit Margin
28.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.4 vs 19.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$174.95
(0%)
2-Year Target
$174.25
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$173.55
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→20)
$175.93
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 6.8%)
$218.77
(+25%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.4, Growth: 6.8%)
$214.08
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.5, Growth: 6.8%)
$181.96
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.90 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.39
Bull Case
$207.81
(+18%)
Analyst growth 7.7%, PE expands to 23.0
Base Case
$188.92
(+8%)
Market implied 7.7%, PE stable at 20.9
Bear Case
$119.25
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.4 to 19.7
Stabilization Target:
$178.05
(+1.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.4%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (ATO)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 5, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Atmos Energy Corporation announced the retirement of Kim R. Cocklin as Chairman of the Board of Directors and the appointment of J. Kevin Akers as his successor, effective at the 2027 annual meeting.
Key Retail Themes:
Leadership Change
Retirement
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 4:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:46 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:46 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ATO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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