SQM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SQM - Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile SA
$67.06
-1.37 (-2.00%)
▼
5d:
-2.43%
30d:
-9.65%
90d:
-27.24%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 19, 2026
15d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SQM appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -14.2% annual earnings decline despite 165% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SQM appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -14.2% annual earnings decline despite 165% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$128.17
Based on 3.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$79.58
15.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SQM is currently trading at $67.06, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $68.24 to $74.50. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.7) compared to its historical average (15.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 14.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 165.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SQM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $65.66. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $84.78 (+26.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SQM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $65.66. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $84.78 (+26.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$68.24 -
$74.50
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.4% below Wall St target ($84.78)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$68.24 -
$74.50
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$65.66
Resistance Level
$71.33
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.67
Wall Street Target
$84.78
(+26.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
69.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
165.2%
Profit Margin
15.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-14.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.7 vs 15.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-14.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$60.35
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$54.32
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$48.89
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→15)
$77.35
(+15%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 3.7%)
$160.16
(+139%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.7, Growth: 3.7%)
$74.71
(+11%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.2, Growth: 3.7%)
$63.50
(-5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.93 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.86
Bull Case
$150.55
(+125%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 26.3
Base Case
$136.86
(+104%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 23.9
Bear Case
$46.53
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.7 to 15.3
Stabilization Target:
$106.11
(+58.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+58.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 10:28 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:28 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:28 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SQM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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