SQM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SQM - Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile SA
$56.37
-2.07 (-3.54%)
▼
5d:
-6.78%
30d:
-18.4%
90d:
-17.98%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 17, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SQM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SQM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$87.38
Based on -1.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$54.25
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SQM is currently trading at $56.37, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $61.12 to $68.70. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.1) compared to its historical average (13.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 16.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 646.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SQM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $55.97. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: SQM scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $82.89 (+47.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SQM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $55.97. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: SQM scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $82.89 (+47.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$61.12 -
$68.70
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading 47.0% below Wall St target ($82.89)
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$61.12 -
$68.70
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$55.97
Resistance Level
$64.91
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.09
Wall Street Target
$82.89
(+47.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
136.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
646.4%
Profit Margin
20.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-16.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.1 vs 13.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-16.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$50.73
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$45.66
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$41.09
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→14)
$70.06
(+24%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -7.6%)
$108.97
(+93%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.1, Growth: -7.6%)
$44.41
(-21%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.9, Growth: -7.6%)
$37.75
(-33%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.02 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.86
Bull Case
$92.11
(+63%)
Analyst growth 43.3%, PE expands to 13.2
Base Case
$83.74
(+49%)
Market implied 43.3%, PE stable at 12.0
Bear Case
$39.74
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.1 to 13.8
Stabilization Target:
$96.10
(+70.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+70.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 7:57 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:57 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:57 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is SQM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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