STZ Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
STZ - Constellation Brands, Inc.
$142.93
0.66 (0.46%)
▲
5d:
+3.74%
30d:
+0.28%
90d:
-3.63%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 30, 2026
18d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: STZ shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: STZ shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$190.67
Based on 5.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$118.39
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: STZ is currently trading at $142.93, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $138.99 to $148.72. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.5) is in line with its historical norms (12.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STZ is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $135.11, while resistance sits at $150.80.
Market Sentiment: STZ has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $176.09 (+23.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STZ is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $135.11, while resistance sits at $150.80.
Market Sentiment: STZ has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $176.09 (+23.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$138.99 -
$148.72
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.8% below Wall St target ($176.09)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$138.99 -
$148.72
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$135.11
Resistance Level
$150.80
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.51
Wall Street Target
$176.09
(+23.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-11.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-15.0%
Profit Margin
18.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.5 vs 12.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$140.42
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$138.60
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$136.79
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
$142.65
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 6.3%)
$325.12
(+129%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.5, Growth: 6.3%)
$170.69
(+20%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.8, Growth: 6.3%)
$145.08
(+2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.58 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.61
Bull Case
$198.24
(+39%)
Analyst growth 28.6%, PE expands to 16.0
Base Case
$180.22
(+27%)
Market implied 28.6%, PE stable at 14.6
Bear Case
$95.26
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.5 to 12.0
Stabilization Target:
$148.36
(+4.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 11, 2026 3:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is STZ showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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2026-03-10
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2026-02-17
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