STZ Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
STZ - Constellation Brands, Inc.
$132.68
-3.08 (-2.27%)
▼
5d:
+1.0%
30d:
-1.03%
90d:
-10.48%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 10, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 05, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 6, 2026 at $133.81 · last confirmed Aug 10, 2026
Strength: 6.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: STZ shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: STZ shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$185.91
Based on 5.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$115.43
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: STZ is currently trading at $132.68, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $130.02 to $135.55. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.0) is in line with its historical norms (11.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 30.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STZ is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $136.59. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: STZ scores 69/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $170.83 (+25.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STZ is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $136.59. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: STZ scores 69/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $170.83 (+25.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$130.02 -
$135.55
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (69/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 25.8% below Wall St target ($170.83)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 69/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$130.02 -
$135.55
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$128.50
Resistance Level
$136.59
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 10, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.98
Wall Street Target
$170.83
(+25.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
30.7%
Profit Margin
20.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.0 vs 11.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$132.77
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$129.85
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$127.00
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→12)
$135.31
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 6.3%)
$300.06
(+121%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.0, Growth: 6.3%)
$162.88
(+20%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.3, Growth: 6.3%)
$138.44
(+2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.44 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.65
Bull Case
$169.22
(+25%)
Analyst growth 16.1%, PE expands to 13.7
Base Case
$153.84
(+13%)
Market implied 16.1%, PE stable at 12.4
Bear Case
$90.11
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.0 to 11.7
Stabilization Target:
$144.65
(+6.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 10, 2026 3:18 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:18 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:18 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is STZ showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-10
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-17
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