Constellation Brands (STZ) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
STZ - Constellation Brands, Inc.
$122.64
-0.99 (-0.80%)
âŧ
5d:
+8.66%
30d:
-0.94%
90d:
-8.82%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 9, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 06, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 6, 2026 at $115.67 · last confirmed Oct 9, 2026
Strength: 8.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: STZ is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -4.4% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: STZ is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -4.4% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$181.14
Based on 5.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$112.47
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: STZ is currently trading at $122.64, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $114.51 to $126.07. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.0) compared to its historical average (11.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 25.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STZ is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $124.19. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $160.96 (+30.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STZ is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $124.19. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $160.96 (+30.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$114.51 -
$126.07
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding STZ? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (43/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 30.2% below Wall St target ($160.96)
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$114.51 -
$126.07
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$110.60
Resistance Level
$124.19
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.00
Wall Street Target
$160.96
(+30.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
25.3%
Profit Margin
20.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.0 vs 11.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$118.19
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$112.99
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$108.02
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10â11)
$123.14
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.7, Growth: 6.3%)
$292.20
(+136%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.0, Growth: 6.3%)
$148.32
(+20%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.5, Growth: 6.3%)
$126.07
(+2%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.36 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.43
Bull Case
$140.86
(+14%)
Analyst growth 8.2%, PE expands to 11.4
Base Case
$128.05
(+4%)
Market implied 8.2%, PE stable at 10.4
Bear Case
$80.50
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.0 to 11.4
Stabilization Target:
$140.94
(+14.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 09, 2026 4:09 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:09 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:09 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is STZ showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced STZ Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's STZ price and gamma walls.
