Texas Instruments (TXN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TXN - Texas Instruments Incorporated
$309.83
0.92 (0.30%)
▲
5d:
+8.85%
30d:
+9.99%
90d:
+11.15%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 28, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 20, 2026 at $281.15 · last confirmed Oct 28, 2026
Strength: 8.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TXN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TXN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$562.54
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$349.29
11.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TXN is currently trading at $309.83, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $274.18 to $294.00. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 26.7) is in line with its historical norms (29.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 77.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXN is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $310.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TXN scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXN is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $310.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TXN scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$274.18 -
$294.00
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
19.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TXN? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.4% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($336.86)
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$274.18 -
$294.00
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$272.01
Resistance Level
$310.00
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 28, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
26.73
Wall Street Target
$336.86
(+9.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
27.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
77.0%
Profit Margin
34.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
26.7 vs 29.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$299.64
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$290.65
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$281.93
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 27→29)
$308.99
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 26.7, Growth: 27.5%)
$640.79
(+107%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 27.5%)
$476.03
(+54%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 27.5%)
$404.62
(+31%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (39x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (27x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 38.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.71
Bull Case
$491.47
(+59%)
Analyst growth 49.9%, PE expands to 42.5
Base Case
$446.79
(+45%)
Market implied 49.9%, PE stable at 38.7
Bear Case
$202.72
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 32.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 26.7 to 29.3
Stabilization Target:
$338.56
(+9.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 28, 2026 3:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:55 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is TXN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced TXN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TXN price and gamma walls.
