TXN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TXN - Texas Instruments Incorporated
$258.64
-7.90 (-2.96%)
▼
5d:
-2.16%
30d:
-7.22%
90d:
-15.39%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 28, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TXN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TXN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$429.90
Based on 11.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$266.93
3.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TXN is currently trading at $258.64, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $266.14 to $284.60. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 25.6) compared to its historical average (29.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 51.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXN is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $255.18. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TXN scores 29/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $324.71 (+25.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXN is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $255.18. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TXN scores 29/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $324.71 (+25.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$266.14 -
$284.60
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TXN? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (29/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 25.5% below Wall St target ($324.71)
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$266.14 -
$284.60
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$255.18
Resistance Level
$286.21
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Aug 28, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
25.61
Wall Street Target
$324.71
(+25.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
51.8%
Profit Margin
31.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
25.6 vs 29.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$245.97
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$233.91
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$222.45
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 26→30)
$258.88
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 25.6, Growth: 18.7%)
$433.09
(+67%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 18.7%)
$339.45
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 18.7%)
$288.53
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (41x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (26x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 40.57 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.57
Bull Case
$450.75
(+74%)
Analyst growth 53.7%, PE expands to 44.6
Base Case
$409.77
(+58%)
Market implied 53.7%, PE stable at 40.6
Bear Case
$181.25
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 34.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 25.6 to 29.8
Stabilization Target:
$300.99
(+16.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 29, 2026 3:16 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:16 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:16 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is TXN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kevin Hern
SELL
2026-03-18
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