NXPI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NXPI - NXP Semiconductors N.V.
$270.23
-7.06 (-2.55%)
▼
5d:
+1.39%
30d:
-8.1%
90d:
+12.05%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
3d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NXPI is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: NXPI is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$473.93
Based on 12.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$294.28
8.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NXPI is currently trading at $270.23, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $271.55 to $301.06. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.6) is in line with its historical norms (15.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NXPI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $258.54, while resistance sits at $293.90.
Market Sentiment: NXPI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $310.66 (+11.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NXPI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $258.54, while resistance sits at $293.90.
Market Sentiment: NXPI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $310.66 (+11.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$271.55 -
$301.06
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
Protect Your Profits
Holding NXPI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($310.66)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$271.55 -
$301.06
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$258.54
Resistance Level
$293.90
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.62
Wall Street Target
$310.66
(+11.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
130.7%
Profit Margin
21.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.9% premium
PE vs Historical
15.6 vs 15.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$281.31
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$283.84
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$286.40
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$278.62
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.9, Growth: 19.9%)
$644.75
(+131%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.6, Growth: 19.9%)
$480.84
(+73%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.3, Growth: 19.9%)
$408.71
(+47%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.58 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.68
Bull Case
$502.02
(+81%)
Analyst growth 67.1%, PE expands to 28.1
Base Case
$456.38
(+65%)
Market implied 67.1%, PE stable at 25.6
Bear Case
$185.74
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 24, 2026 11:24 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:24 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:24 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NXPI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Andrew Micallef
SELL
1000 shares
2026-03-16
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-05
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Advanced NXPI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NXPI price and gamma walls.
