NXPI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NXPI - NXP Semiconductors N.V.
$231.91
-1.50 (-0.64%)
▼
5d:
+0.06%
30d:
-16.88%
90d:
-22.28%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 11, 2026 at $236.60 · last confirmed Aug 13, 2026
Strength: 5.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NXPI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: NXPI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$480.54
Based on 12.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$298.37
22.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NXPI is currently trading at $231.91, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $237.12 to $280.53. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.9) compared to its historical average (15.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 72.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NXPI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $218.24, while resistance sits at $251.72.
Market Sentiment: NXPI scores 88/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $311.10 (+33.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NXPI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $218.24, while resistance sits at $251.72.
Market Sentiment: NXPI scores 88/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $311.10 (+33.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$237.12 -
$280.53
Company Quality Score
72/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding NXPI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (88/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 33.3% below Wall St target ($311.10)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 18% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$237.12 -
$280.53
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$218.24
Resistance Level
$251.72
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.90
Wall Street Target
$311.10
(+33.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
72.6%
Profit Margin
22.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.9 vs 15.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$221.53
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$210.23
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$199.51
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→15)
$233.53
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 20.2%)
$635.10
(+172%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.9, Growth: 20.2%)
$404.99
(+74%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.0, Growth: 20.2%)
$344.24
(+48%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (48x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 47.66 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.03
Bull Case
$527.36
(+127%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 52.4
Base Case
$479.42
(+107%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 47.7
Bear Case
$163.00
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 40.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.9 to 15.1
Stabilization Target:
$273.24
(+17.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 13, 2026 9:02 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:02 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:02 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is NXPI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Andrew Micallef
SELL
1000 shares
2026-03-16
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Advanced NXPI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NXPI price and gamma walls.
