NXPI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NXPI - NXP Semiconductors N.V.
$304.86
2.31 (0.76%)
▲
5d:
+3.01%
30d:
+2.16%
90d:
+59.73%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 12, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NXPI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NXPI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$458.07
Based on 11.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$284.43
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NXPI is currently trading at $304.86, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $291.46 to $318.75. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 17.3) compared to its historical average (15.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NXPI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $279.36, while resistance sits at $328.21.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NXPI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $279.36, while resistance sits at $328.21.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$291.46 -
$318.75
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($303.68)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 4.9% growth expectation is conservative given 131% recent growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$291.46 -
$318.75
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$279.36
Resistance Level
$328.21
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 12, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.29
Wall Street Target
$303.68
(-0.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
130.7%
Profit Margin
21.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.9% premium
PE vs Historical
17.3 vs 15.0
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$319.80
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$335.47
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$351.91
(+15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$305.24
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 19.5%)
$658.91
(+116%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.3, Growth: 19.5%)
$519.83
(+71%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.7, Growth: 19.5%)
$441.86
(+45%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.90 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.47
Bull Case
$560.35
(+84%)
Analyst growth 68.4%, PE expands to 31.8
Base Case
$509.41
(+67%)
Market implied 68.4%, PE stable at 28.9
Bear Case
$205.73
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 14, 2026 6:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NXPI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Andrew Micallef
SELL
1000 shares
2026-03-16
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-05
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Advanced NXPI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NXPI price and gamma walls.
