NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NXPI - NXP Semiconductors N.V.
$237.57
5.16 (2.22%)
▲
5d:
+4.96%
30d:
+5.32%
90d:
-20.79%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NXPI appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -3.8% annual earnings decline despite 73% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NXPI appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -3.8% annual earnings decline despite 73% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
NXPI is flagged by 1 backtest-validated scanner today
SOXX Bullish (stocks from this scanner have beaten SPY by a median 0.81% over the next 20 trading days; NXPI has been on it 1 day). Backtested on 8 months of scanner history vs the S&P 500, as of 2026-09-22.
See all of today's Best Signals in the free scanner →Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$470.99
Based on 12.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$292.45
18.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NXPI is currently trading at $237.57, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $222.39 to $231.27. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.1) compared to its historical average (14.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 72.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NXPI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $238.94. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NXPI scores 71/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $311.10 (+31.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NXPI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $238.94. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NXPI scores 71/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $311.10 (+31.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$222.39 -
$231.27
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (71/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 31.0% below Wall St target ($311.10)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 71/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$222.39 -
$231.27
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$216.66
Resistance Level
$238.94
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.13
Wall Street Target
$311.10
(+31.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
72.6%
Profit Margin
22.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.1 vs 14.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$228.54
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$219.86
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$211.50
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→15)
$238.42
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 20.2%)
$639.18
(+169%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.1, Growth: 20.2%)
$412.17
(+74%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.2, Growth: 20.2%)
$350.35
(+48%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.83 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.72
Bull Case
$394.71
(+66%)
Analyst growth 54.4%, PE expands to 21.8
Base Case
$358.83
(+51%)
Market implied 54.4%, PE stable at 19.8
Bear Case
$158.04
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.1 to 14.8
Stabilization Target:
$267.81
(+12.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 23, 2026 4:49 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:49 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:49 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NXPI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
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Advanced NXPI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NXPI price and gamma walls.
