NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NXPI - NXP Semiconductors N.V.
$225.21
-2.31 (-1.02%)
âŧ
5d:
-6.93%
30d:
-4.82%
90d:
-20.66%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 12, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
13d
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 5, 2026 at $241.31 · last confirmed Oct 12, 2026
Strength: 6.3/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NXPI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -5.3% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NXPI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -5.3% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$467.66
Based on 12.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$290.38
22.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NXPI is currently trading at $225.21, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $225.15 to $238.61. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.4) compared to its historical average (14.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 72.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NXPI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $223.29. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $306.72 (+36.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NXPI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $223.29. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $306.72 (+36.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$225.15 -
$238.61
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding NXPI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (42/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 36.2% below Wall St target ($306.72)
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$225.15 -
$238.61
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$223.29
Resistance Level
$248.86
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 12, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.42
Wall Street Target
$306.72
(+36.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
72.6%
Profit Margin
22.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.4 vs 14.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$213.27
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$201.97
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$191.27
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12â15)
$224.86
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 20.4%)
$628.99
(+179%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.4, Growth: 20.4%)
$393.31
(+75%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.6, Growth: 20.4%)
$334.31
(+48%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.43 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.71
Bull Case
$387.59
(+72%)
Analyst growth 54.9%, PE expands to 21.4
Base Case
$352.35
(+57%)
Market implied 54.9%, PE stable at 19.4
Bear Case
$154.71
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.4 to 14.6
Stabilization Target:
$264.77
(+17.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 13, 2026 8:40 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:40 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:40 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NXPI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced NXPI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NXPI price and gamma walls.
