TXRH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TXRH - Texas Roadhouse, Inc.
$196.59
5.98 (3.14%)
▲
5d:
+10.6%
30d:
+8.32%
90d:
+18.18%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 26, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: TXRH is 7.2% above its trading range ($183.46). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: TXRH is 7.2% above its trading range ($183.46). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$317.90
Based on 11.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$197.39
0.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TXRH is currently trading at $196.59, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $167.01 to $183.46. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 25.7) is in line with its historical norms (24.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXRH is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $185.58. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: TXRH has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXRH is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $185.58. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: TXRH has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$167.01 -
$183.46
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
Protect Your Profits
TXRH is technically overbought (RSI 74). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+7.2% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.1%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($197.96)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$167.01 -
$183.46
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$160.00
Resistance Level
$185.58
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
25.71
Wall Street Target
$197.96
(+0.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
10.0%
Profit Margin
6.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.2% premium
PE vs Historical
25.7 vs 24.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$200.91
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$205.34
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$209.85
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 26→24)
PE COMPRESSION
$196.75
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 25.7, Growth: 19.3%)
$333.39
(+70%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 19.3%)
$282.47
(+44%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 19.3%)
$240.10
(+22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (26x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.40 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.27
Bull Case
$255.74
(+30%)
Analyst growth 22.0%, PE expands to 33.4
Base Case
$232.50
(+18%)
Market implied 22.0%, PE stable at 30.4
Bear Case
$129.61
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 27, 2026 2:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:55 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TXRH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Regina A Tobin
SELL
4450 shares
2026-03-19
Hugh J Carroll
SELL
988 shares
2026-03-16
Hernan E Mujica
SELL
5000 shares
2026-03-13
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