Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TXRH - Texas Roadhouse, Inc.
$156.70
0.36 (0.23%)
▲
5d:
-3.0%
30d:
-18.2%
90d:
-19.34%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TXRH shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TXRH shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$317.46
Based on 11.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$197.12
20.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TXRH is currently trading at $156.70, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $167.13 to $198.04. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 20.1) compared to its historical average (24.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXRH is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $154.57. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $218.74 (+39.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXRH is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $154.57. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $218.74 (+39.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$167.13 -
$198.04
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TXRH? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 39.9% below Wall St target ($218.74)
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$167.13 -
$198.04
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$154.57
Resistance Level
$168.90
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.11
Wall Street Target
$218.74
(+39.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-0.5%
Profit Margin
6.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.1 vs 24.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$146.80
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$137.85
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$129.44
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→24)
$156.42
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 18.1%)
$260.95
(+67%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 18.1%)
$257.23
(+65%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 18.1%)
$218.64
(+40%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.15 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.25
Bull Case
$215.12
(+38%)
Analyst growth 24.4%, PE expands to 27.7
Base Case
$195.56
(+25%)
Market implied 24.4%, PE stable at 25.2
Bear Case
$106.90
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.1 to 24.3
Stabilization Target:
$188.93
(+20.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 01, 2026 4:08 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:08 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:08 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TXRH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced TXRH Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TXRH price and gamma walls.
