Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TXRH - Texas Roadhouse, Inc.
$181.17
0.12 (0.07%)
▲
5d:
-4.17%
30d:
-15.45%
90d:
+8.03%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TXRH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TXRH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$320.71
Based on 11.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$199.14
9.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TXRH is currently trading at $181.17, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $191.07 to $210.01. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 23.2) is in line with its historical norms (24.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXRH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $177.33. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $218.09 (+20.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXRH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $177.33. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $218.09 (+20.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$191.07 -
$210.01
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TXRH? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.5% below Wall St target ($218.09)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (45/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$191.07 -
$210.01
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$177.33
Resistance Level
$201.21
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.24
Wall Street Target
$218.09
(+20.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-0.5%
Profit Margin
6.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
23.2 vs 24.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$177.79
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$174.59
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$171.45
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→25)
$180.74
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.2, Growth: 18.1%)
$297.98
(+65%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 18.1%)
$258.61
(+43%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 18.1%)
$219.82
(+21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.24 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.13
Bull Case
$250.60
(+38%)
Analyst growth 27.1%, PE expands to 32.2
Base Case
$227.82
(+26%)
Market implied 27.1%, PE stable at 29.2
Bear Case
$121.90
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 23.2 to 24.5
Stabilization Target:
$190.86
(+5.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 11, 2026 3:28 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:28 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:28 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TXRH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Regina A Tobin
SELL
4450 shares
2026-03-19
Hugh J Carroll
SELL
988 shares
2026-03-16
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