Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$188.16
-2.36 (-1.24%)
▼
5d:
+1.99%
30d:
+18.48%
90d:
-12.19%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (27%)
Quality Score
30/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$158.39 – $180.50
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
25.2x
FAIR
vs 24.0x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$210.38
+11.8% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$166.42 / $198.85
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TXRH shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$297.51
Based on 10.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$184.73
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TXRH is currently trading at $188.16, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $158.39 to $180.50. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 25.2) is in line with its historical norms (24.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXRH is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $166.42, while resistance sits at $198.84.
Market Sentiment: TXRH scores 8/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $210.38 (+11.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXRH is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $166.42, while resistance sits at $198.84.
Market Sentiment: TXRH scores 8/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $210.38 (+11.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$158.39 -
$180.50
Company Quality Score
30/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.1%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$158.39 -
$180.50
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$166.42
Resistance Level
$198.85
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding TXRH? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (8/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($210.38)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 30/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
25.23
Wall Street Target
$210.38
(+11.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
8.8%
Profit Margin
6.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.6% premium
PE vs Historical
25.2 vs 24.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$191.17
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$194.23
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$197.34
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 25→24)
PE COMPRESSION
$187.73
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 25.2, Growth: 17.6%)
$306.11
(+63%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 17.6%)
$240.97
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 17.6%)
$204.82
(+9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (25x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.96 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.36
Bull Case
$245.76
(+31%)
Analyst growth 17.3%, PE expands to 33.0
Base Case
$223.42
(+19%)
Market implied 17.3%, PE stable at 30.0
Bear Case
$129.55
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (TXRH)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 29, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
The latest research calls in Wall Street include upgrades for Skyworks, Procter & Gamble, Penn Entertainment, and Texas Roadhouse, while Nike was downgraded by Berenberg.
Key Retail Themes:
Company upgrades in the technology, consumer goods, and gaming sectors
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 10, 2026 8:58 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:58 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:58 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TXRH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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