TXRH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TXRH - Texas Roadhouse, Inc.
$204.48
3.29 (1.64%)
â˛
5d:
-1.27%
30d:
+7.14%
90d:
+14.84%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: TXRH is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.4% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: TXRH is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.4% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$320.24
Based on 11.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$198.84
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TXRH is currently trading at $204.48, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $195.59 to $209.51. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 26.3) is in line with its historical norms (24.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXRH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $199.97. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TXRH scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXRH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $199.97. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TXRH scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$195.59 -
$209.51
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TXRH? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (34/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($217.74)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.4% growth with 11.1% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$195.59 -
$209.51
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
Âą$7.16
(3.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$199.97
Resistance Level
$216.30
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
26.29
Wall Street Target
$217.74
(+6.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-0.5%
Profit Margin
6.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.4% premium
PE vs Historical
26.3 vs 24.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$209.39
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$214.41
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$219.56
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 26â25)
PE COMPRESSION
$204.63
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 26.3, Growth: 18.1%)
$336.52
(+65%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 18.1%)
$256.93
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 18.1%)
$218.39
(+7%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (26x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.45 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.20
Bull Case
$277.66
(+36%)
Analyst growth 25.5%, PE expands to 35.7
Base Case
$252.42
(+23%)
Market implied 25.5%, PE stable at 32.5
Bear Case
$136.81
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 11:50 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:50 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:50 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TXRH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Regina A Tobin
SELL
4450 shares
2026-03-19
Hugh J Carroll
SELL
988 shares
2026-03-16
Hernan E Mujica
SELL
5000 shares
2026-03-13
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Advanced TXRH Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TXRH price and gamma walls.
