TXRH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TXRH - Texas Roadhouse, Inc.
$179.77
2.02 (1.14%)
▲
5d:
+7.1%
30d:
+0.8%
90d:
+5.2%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TXRH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TXRH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$317.90
Based on 11.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$197.39
8.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TXRH is currently trading at $179.77, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $167.06 to $179.36. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 23.5) is in line with its historical norms (24.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 10.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXRH is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $160.00, while resistance sits at $185.58.
Market Sentiment: TXRH has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $197.96 (+10.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXRH is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $160.00, while resistance sits at $185.58.
Market Sentiment: TXRH has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $197.96 (+10.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$167.06 -
$179.36
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.3%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($197.96)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$167.06 -
$179.36
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$8.23
(4.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$160.00
Resistance Level
$185.58
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.51
Wall Street Target
$197.96
(+10.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
10.0%
Profit Margin
6.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
23.5 vs 24.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$178.33
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$176.91
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$175.49
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→24)
$179.92
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.5, Growth: 19.3%)
$304.86
(+70%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 19.3%)
$282.47
(+57%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 19.3%)
$240.10
(+34%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.35 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.27
Bull Case
$238.49
(+33%)
Analyst growth 22.0%, PE expands to 31.2
Base Case
$216.81
(+21%)
Market implied 22.0%, PE stable at 28.4
Bear Case
$120.87
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 23.5 to 24.1
Stabilization Target:
$184.31
(+2.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 4:57 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:57 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:57 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TXRH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Regina A Tobin
SELL
4450 shares
2026-03-19
Hugh J Carroll
SELL
988 shares
2026-03-16
Hernan E Mujica
SELL
5000 shares
2026-03-13
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Advanced TXRH Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TXRH price and gamma walls.
