Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TXRH - Texas Roadhouse, Inc.
$167.82
-1.39 (-0.82%)
âŧ
5d:
+0.71%
30d:
+1.02%
90d:
-12.07%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
13d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: TXRH is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -3.5% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: TXRH is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -3.5% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$319.14
Based on 11.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$198.16
15.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TXRH is currently trading at $167.82, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $158.18 to $174.13. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 21.6) compared to its historical average (24.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXRH is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $158.07, while resistance sits at $172.94.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $210.33 (+25.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXRH is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $158.07, while resistance sits at $172.94.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $210.33 (+25.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$158.18 -
$174.13
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TXRH? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (44/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 25.3% below Wall St target ($210.33)
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$158.18 -
$174.13
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$158.07
Resistance Level
$172.94
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.62
Wall Street Target
$210.33
(+25.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-0.5%
Profit Margin
6.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.6 vs 24.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$161.95
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$156.28
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$150.81
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22â24)
$168.09
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.6, Growth: 18.8%)
$281.24
(+68%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 18.8%)
$258.31
(+54%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 18.8%)
$219.56
(+31%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.07 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.25
Bull Case
$231.14
(+38%)
Analyst growth 24.2%, PE expands to 29.8
Base Case
$210.13
(+25%)
Market implied 24.2%, PE stable at 27.1
Bear Case
$115.06
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.6 to 24.1
Stabilization Target:
$187.05
(+11.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 21, 2026 8:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:25 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TXRH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced TXRH Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TXRH price and gamma walls.
