CMG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CMG - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
$35.25
0.65 (1.88%)
▲
5d:
-0.4%
30d:
+17.97%
90d:
+2.95%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 10, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
15d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.8/10
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3 traders called CMG this week
75% bullish • 1 bearish
75% bullish • 1 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CMG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CMG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$58.70
Based on 11.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.45
3.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CMG is currently trading at $35.25, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $29.97 to $34.07. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 26.0) is in line with its historical norms (26.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMG is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $33.59. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CMG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.03 (+22.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMG is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $33.59. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CMG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.03 (+22.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$29.97 -
$34.07
Company Quality Score
68/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.1% below Wall St target ($43.03)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$29.97 -
$34.07
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$30.45
Resistance Level
$33.59
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 29, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
26.01
Wall Street Target
$43.03
(+22.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-17.9%
Profit Margin
12.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
26.0 vs 26.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$35.00
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$34.76
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$34.51
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 26→27)
$35.30
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 26.0, Growth: 19.5%)
$60.22
(+71%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 19.5%)
$50.43
(+43%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 19.5%)
$42.87
(+22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (26x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.74 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.09
Bull Case
$47.33
(+34%)
Analyst growth 24.3%, PE expands to 34.9
Base Case
$43.02
(+22%)
Market implied 24.3%, PE stable at 31.7
Bear Case
$23.53
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 26.0 to 26.6
Stabilization Target:
$36.05
(+2.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 4:36 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:36 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:36 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
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SELL
2026-03-10
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-01-29
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