Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CMG - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
$28.12
-1.53 (-5.16%)
▼
5d:
-7.86%
30d:
-13.82%
90d:
-12.15%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
5d
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 16, 2026 at $30.28 · last confirmed Oct 16, 2026
Strength: 7.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CMG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CMG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$58.72
Based on 11.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.46
22.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CMG is currently trading at $28.12, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $30.06 to $33.57. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 20.6) compared to its historical average (26.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMG is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $27.87. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: CMG scores 22/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.29 (+53.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMG is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $27.87. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: CMG scores 22/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.29 (+53.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$30.06 -
$33.57
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CMG? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (22/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading 53.9% below Wall St target ($43.29)
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$30.06 -
$33.57
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$27.87
Resistance Level
$33.40
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.56
Wall Street Target
$43.29
(+53.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-1.3%
Profit Margin
11.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.6 vs 26.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$25.98
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$24.01
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$22.18
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→26)
$28.05
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 19.1%)
$47.49
(+69%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 19.1%)
$45.87
(+63%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 19.1%)
$38.99
(+39%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.20 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.09
Bull Case
$40.92
(+46%)
Analyst growth 25.5%, PE expands to 29.9
Base Case
$37.20
(+32%)
Market implied 25.5%, PE stable at 27.2
Bear Case
$20.16
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.6 to 26.0
Stabilization Target:
$35.56
(+26.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+26.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 21, 2026 8:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:25 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is CMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced CMG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CMG price and gamma walls.
