What is the fair value of CMG stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for CMG to be between $33.48 and $37.62. The current price is $36.24.

What is the analyst price target for CMG?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for CMG is $43.77. This implies a potential upside of 21.1% from current levels.

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

CMG - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

RETAIL-EATING PLACES

$36.25

0.11 (0.32%) ▲

5d: -3.53%

30d: +11.04%

90d: +15.98%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 28, 2026

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $36.96 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026

Strength: 7.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Bottom Line:
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: CMG is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.0% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 19.2%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$58.93

Based on 11.6% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$36.59

1.0% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: CMG is currently trading at $36.24, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $33.48 to $37.62. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 26.4) is in line with its historical norms (26.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in -0.0% annual earnings growth.

Technical Outlook: Technically, CMG is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $35.66. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: CMG scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.77 (+21.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR

Historical Trading Range $33.48 - $37.62

Company Quality Score 37/100 (SELL)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 50.0%

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All Signals

NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (34/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 21.1% below Wall St target ($43.77)
WARNING: Composite score 37/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $33.48 - $37.62

Current vs Trading Range FAIR

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $35.66

Resistance Level $38.92

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 26.38

Wall Street Target $43.77 (+21.1%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 9.3%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -1.3%

Profit Margin 11.4%

PE vs Historical 26.4 vs 26.4 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): 0% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $36.13 (0%)

2-Year Target $36.13 (0%)

3-Year Target $36.13 (0%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 26→26) $36.16 (+0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 26.4, Growth: 19.2%) $61.12 (+69%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 19.2%) $46.74 (+29%)

Bear: (PE: 17.1, Growth: 19.2%) $39.73 (+10%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (26x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 33.36 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.08

Bull Case $50.26 (+39%)

Analyst growth 26.8%, PE expands to 36.7

Base Case $45.69 (+27%)

Market implied 26.8%, PE stable at 33.4

Bear Case $24.50 (-32%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.4

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: September 11, 2026 3:43 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:43 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

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Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Ro Khanna SELL 2026-03-23

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