Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$35.92
+0.18 (+0.50%)
▲
5d:
+8.0%
30d:
+18.16%
90d:
+10.05%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (25%)
Quality Score
32/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$28.85 – $33.68
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
27.1x
FAIR
vs 25.9x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$40.57
+12.9% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$28.07 / $36.19
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CMG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$60.75
Based on 13.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$37.72
4.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CMG is currently trading at $35.92, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $28.85 to $33.68. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 27.1) is in line with its historical norms (25.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMG is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $36.19. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CMG scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $40.57 (+12.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMG is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $36.19. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CMG scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $40.57 (+12.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$28.85 -
$33.68
Company Quality Score
32/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
24.8%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$28.85 -
$33.68
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$28.07
Resistance Level
$36.19
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding CMG? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.7% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($40.57)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.5% growth with 9.6% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 32/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
27.07
Wall Street Target
$40.57
(+12.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-6.2%
Profit Margin
10.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.5% premium
PE vs Historical
27.1 vs 25.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.46
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$37.01
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$37.56
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 27→26)
PE COMPRESSION
$35.93
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 27.1, Growth: 22.1%)
$65.33
(+82%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 22.1%)
$47.92
(+33%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 22.1%)
$40.73
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (27x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 33.40 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.07
Bull Case
$48.75
(+36%)
Analyst growth 24.0%, PE expands to 36.7
Base Case
$44.31
(+23%)
Market implied 24.0%, PE stable at 33.4
Bear Case
$24.30
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (CMG)
Bullish
5 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
4
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 11, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Restaurant chains, including Chipotle and Wendy's, are focusing on menu improvements to attract customers back as Americans eat out less frequently. Chipotle's CEO highlighted the success of its brisket promotion, while Wendy's is testing menu overhauls as part of a broader turnaround plan.
Key Retail Themes:
menu improvements
customer attraction
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 10, 2026 8:58 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:58 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:58 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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