CMG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CMG - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
$32.79
-0.92 (-2.73%)
▼
5d:
-11.9%
30d:
-5.23%
90d:
-1.44%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 7, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $32.79 · last confirmed Aug 7, 2026
Strength: 6.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: CMG is down 11.9% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: CMG is down 11.9% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$58.62
Based on 11.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.40
9.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CMG is currently trading at $32.79, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.76 to $35.97. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 24.0) is in line with its historical norms (26.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMG is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $32.51. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (43/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $44.05 (+34.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMG is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $32.51. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (43/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $44.05 (+34.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$32.76 -
$35.97
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CMG? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (43/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 34.3% below Wall St target ($44.05)
- WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$32.76 -
$35.97
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$32.51
Resistance Level
$39.09
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 7, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.96
Wall Street Target
$44.05
(+34.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-1.3%
Profit Margin
11.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
24.0 vs 26.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$31.74
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$30.73
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$29.74
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→26)
$32.77
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.0, Growth: 19.0%)
$55.32
(+69%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 19.0%)
$46.70
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.2, Growth: 19.0%)
$39.70
(+21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.21 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.08
Bull Case
$46.98
(+43%)
Analyst growth 26.7%, PE expands to 34.3
Base Case
$42.71
(+30%)
Market implied 26.7%, PE stable at 31.2
Bear Case
$22.92
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 24.0 to 26.4
Stabilization Target:
$36.13
(+10.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 08, 2026 4:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:46 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:46 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-10
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CMG price and gamma walls.
