Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CMG - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
$32.32
0.37 (1.16%)
▲
5d:
+0.97%
30d:
-13.84%
90d:
-8.67%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CMG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CMG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$59.13
Based on 11.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.72
12.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CMG is currently trading at $32.32, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.71 to $37.57. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 23.3) compared to its historical average (26.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMG is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $31.14, while resistance sits at $33.75.
Market Sentiment: CMG scores 63/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.92 (+37.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMG is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $31.14, while resistance sits at $33.75.
Market Sentiment: CMG scores 63/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.92 (+37.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$32.71 -
$37.57
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CMG? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (63/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 37.5% below Wall St target ($43.92)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 29% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$32.71 -
$37.57
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$31.14
Resistance Level
$33.75
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.30
Wall Street Target
$43.92
(+37.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-1.3%
Profit Margin
11.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
23.3 vs 26.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$30.70
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$29.51
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$28.36
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→26)
$32.01
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.3, Growth: 19.3%)
$54.23
(+70%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 19.3%)
$47.48
(+49%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 19.3%)
$40.36
(+26%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.52 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.08
Bull Case
$44.53
(+39%)
Analyst growth 27.0%, PE expands to 32.5
Base Case
$40.48
(+27%)
Market implied 27.0%, PE stable at 29.5
Bear Case
$21.68
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 23.3 to 26.3
Stabilization Target:
$36.07
(+12.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 01, 2026 4:35 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:35 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:35 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced CMG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CMG price and gamma walls.
