WMG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
WMG - Warner Music Group Corp. Class A Common Stock
$25.96
-1.60 (-5.81%)
▼
5d:
-2.22%
30d:
-6.28%
90d:
-8.17%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: WMG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: WMG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$41.06
Based on 5.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$25.50
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: WMG is currently trading at $25.96, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $26.87 to $28.64. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.2) compared to its historical average (16.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 393.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WMG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.83. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: WMG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.71 (+45.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WMG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.83. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: WMG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.71 (+45.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$26.87 -
$28.64
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 45.2% below Wall St target ($37.71)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$26.87 -
$28.64
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.83
Resistance Level
$29.87
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.24
Wall Street Target
$37.71
(+45.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
393.1%
Profit Margin
6.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.2 vs 16.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.22
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$22.60
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$21.08
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→16)
$25.95
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 6.3%)
$48.75
(+88%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.2, Growth: 6.3%)
$31.14
(+20%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.3, Growth: 6.3%)
$26.47
(+2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (35x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 34.89 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.79
Bull Case
$60.63
(+134%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 38.4
Base Case
$55.12
(+112%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 34.9
Bear Case
$18.74
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.2 to 16.3
Stabilization Target:
$31.95
(+23.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+23.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 2:14 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:14 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:14 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is WMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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