Warner Music Group (WMG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
WMG - Warner Music Group Corp. Class A Common Stock
$31.69
0.25 (0.80%)
▲
5d:
+3.26%
30d:
+16.68%
90d:
+19.36%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 19, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: WMG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: WMG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$43.68
Based on 7.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.12
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: WMG is currently trading at $31.69, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $27.14 to $30.14. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.1) is in line with its historical norms (15.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WMG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $32.04. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: WMG scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $38.00 (+19.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WMG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $32.04. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: WMG scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $38.00 (+19.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$27.14 -
$30.14
Company Quality Score
33/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
22.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.1% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($38.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 33/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$27.14 -
$30.14
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$28.27
Resistance Level
$32.04
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.11
Wall Street Target
$38.00
(+19.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
393.1%
Profit Margin
9.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.8% premium
PE vs Historical
16.1 vs 15.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$31.94
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$32.20
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$32.46
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$31.63
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 10.4%)
$52.60
(+66%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.1, Growth: 10.4%)
$42.67
(+35%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.7, Growth: 10.4%)
$36.27
(+14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.15 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.25
Bull Case
$54.43
(+72%)
Analyst growth 57.4%, PE expands to 27.7
Base Case
$49.48
(+56%)
Market implied 57.4%, PE stable at 25.2
Bear Case
$21.38
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 6:50 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:50 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:50 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is WMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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