WMG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
WMG - Warner Music Group Corp. Class A Common Stock
$25.10
-0.86 (-3.31%)
▼
5d:
-9.09%
30d:
-11.24%
90d:
-10.29%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: WMG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: WMG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$41.06
Based on 5.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$25.50
1.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: WMG is currently trading at $25.10, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $26.67 to $28.74. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.8) compared to its historical average (16.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 393.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WMG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: WMG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.71 (+50.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WMG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: WMG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.71 (+50.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$26.67 -
$28.74
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 50.2% below Wall St target ($37.71)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-9.1%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$26.67 -
$28.74
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.06
Resistance Level
$29.87
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.80
Wall Street Target
$37.71
(+50.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
393.1%
Profit Margin
6.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.8 vs 16.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$23.17
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$21.38
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$19.74
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→16)
$25.12
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 6.3%)
$48.75
(+94%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.8, Growth: 6.3%)
$30.11
(+20%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.9, Growth: 6.3%)
$25.59
(+2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.90 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.84
Bull Case
$57.11
(+128%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 34.0
Base Case
$51.92
(+107%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 30.9
Bear Case
$17.65
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.8 to 16.3
Stabilization Target:
$31.95
(+27.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+27.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 6:13 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:13 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:13 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is WMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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