Warner Music Group (WMG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
WMG - Warner Music Group Corp. Class A Common Stock
$28.33
0.49 (1.76%)
â˛
5d:
-4.13%
30d:
+14.28%
90d:
-0.77%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: WMG is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -3.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: WMG is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -3.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$44.51
Based on 7.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.64
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: WMG is currently trading at $28.33, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.87 to $28.35. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.4) is in line with its historical norms (15.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 393.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WMG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $27.71. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $36.88 (+30.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WMG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $27.71. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $36.88 (+30.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$25.87 -
$28.35
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (44/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 30.2% below Wall St target ($36.88)
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$25.87 -
$28.35
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$27.71
Resistance Level
$29.67
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.38
Wall Street Target
$36.88
(+30.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
393.1%
Profit Margin
9.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.4 vs 15.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$27.40
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$26.49
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$25.62
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14â16)
$28.33
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 10.6%)
$53.80
(+90%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.4, Growth: 10.6%)
$38.34
(+35%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.2, Growth: 10.6%)
$32.59
(+15%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.45 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.24
Bull Case
$48.67
(+72%)
Analyst growth 58.9%, PE expands to 24.7
Base Case
$44.24
(+56%)
Market implied 58.9%, PE stable at 22.5
Bear Case
$18.93
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.4 to 15.9
Stabilization Target:
$31.33
(+10.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 10:24 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:24 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:24 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is WMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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