WMG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
WMG - Warner Music Group Corp. Class A Common Stock
$27.71
-1.04 (-3.62%)
▼
5d:
-2.57%
30d:
-2.94%
90d:
-3.38%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: WMG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: WMG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$41.57
Based on 5.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$25.81
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: WMG is currently trading at $27.71, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $27.24 to $29.15. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.7) compared to its historical average (16.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 393.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WMG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $28.62. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $38.12 (+32.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WMG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $28.62. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $38.12 (+32.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$27.24 -
$29.15
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 32.6% below Wall St target ($38.12)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$27.24 -
$29.15
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$28.62
Resistance Level
$34.55
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.67
Wall Street Target
$38.12
(+32.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
393.1%
Profit Margin
6.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.7 vs 16.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$27.63
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$26.55
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$25.52
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→17)
$28.70
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 6.3%)
$51.22
(+78%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.7, Growth: 6.3%)
$34.49
(+20%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.5, Growth: 6.3%)
$29.32
(+2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (35x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 34.51 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.84
Bull Case
$63.78
(+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 38.0
Base Case
$57.98
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 34.5
Bear Case
$19.71
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.7 to 16.5
Stabilization Target:
$32.34
(+12.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 3:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:40 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is WMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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