Warner Music Group (WMG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
WMG - Warner Music Group Corp. Class A Common Stock
$26.82
-0.23 (-0.87%)
▼
5d:
-1.2%
30d:
-5.41%
90d:
-2.14%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 19, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: WMG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: WMG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$44.19
Based on 7.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.44
2.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: WMG is currently trading at $26.82, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $27.31 to $28.59. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.6) compared to its historical average (15.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 393.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WMG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $26.45. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: WMG scores 61/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.81 (+41.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WMG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $26.45. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: WMG scores 61/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.81 (+41.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$27.31 -
$28.59
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (61/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 41.0% below Wall St target ($37.81)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 23% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$27.31 -
$28.59
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$26.45
Resistance Level
$28.25
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.62
Wall Street Target
$37.81
(+41.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
393.1%
Profit Margin
9.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.6 vs 15.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$25.53
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$24.30
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$23.14
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→16)
$26.84
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 10.6%)
$54.38
(+103%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.6, Growth: 10.6%)
$36.30
(+35%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.6, Growth: 10.6%)
$30.86
(+15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.64 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.25
Bull Case
$46.87
(+75%)
Analyst growth 57.5%, PE expands to 23.8
Base Case
$42.61
(+59%)
Market implied 57.5%, PE stable at 21.6
Bear Case
$18.39
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.6 to 15.8
Stabilization Target:
$31.11
(+16.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 1:55 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:55 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:55 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is WMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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