TKO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TKO - TKO Group Holdings, Inc.
$186.01
-3.41 (-1.80%)
▼
5d:
+0.74%
30d:
-0.68%
90d:
-8.59%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 4, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TKO shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TKO shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$155.85
Based on 4.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$96.77
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TKO is currently trading at $186.01, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $183.79 to $195.25. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 37.8) is in line with its historical norms (36.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TKO is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $181.21. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TKO scores 71/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $231.16 (+24.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TKO is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $181.21. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TKO scores 71/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $231.16 (+24.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$183.79 -
$195.25
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
30th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
87.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 30th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (71/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.3% below Wall St target ($231.16)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 71/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$183.79 -
$195.25
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$8.52
(4.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$181.21
Resistance Level
$196.19
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Sep 4, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
37.81
Wall Street Target
$231.16
(+24.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.4%
Profit Margin
4.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.5% premium
PE vs Historical
37.8 vs 36.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$188.80
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$191.63
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$194.51
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 38→36)
PE COMPRESSION
$185.72
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 37.8, Growth: 5.7%)
$219.81
(+18%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 5.7%)
$117.61
(-37%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.2, Growth: 5.7%)
$99.97
(-46%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (43x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (38x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 42.55 | Forward EPS (Implied): $4.37
Bull Case
$224.61
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 44.7
Base Case
$186.01
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 42.6
Bear Case
$142.30
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 38.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 05, 2026 6:09 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:09 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:09 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TKO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Nick Khan
SELL
9518 shares
2026-04-06
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