TKO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TKO - TKO Group Holdings, Inc.
$203.51
0.81 (0.40%)
▲
5d:
+1.74%
30d:
+6.27%
90d:
+5.18%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TKO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TKO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$171.43
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$106.44
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TKO is currently trading at $203.51, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $192.23 to $205.34. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 41.3) compared to its historical average (35.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TKO is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $186.38, while resistance sits at $212.00.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $234.39 (+15.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TKO is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $186.38, while resistance sits at $212.00.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $234.39 (+15.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$192.23 -
$205.34
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
69.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($234.39)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.6% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$192.23 -
$205.34
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$186.38
Resistance Level
$212.00
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
41.30
Wall Street Target
$234.39
(+15.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
25.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
63.0%
Profit Margin
4.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.6% premium
PE vs Historical
41.3 vs 35.1
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$214.91
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$226.94
(+12%)
3-Year Target
$239.65
(+18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 41→35)
PE COMPRESSION
$203.69
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 41.3, Growth: 9.7%)
$268.31
(+32%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 9.7%)
$141.51
(-31%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 9.7%)
$120.28
(-41%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (52x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (41x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 51.81 | Forward EPS (Implied): $3.93
Bull Case
$245.74
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 54.4
Base Case
$203.51
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 51.8
Bear Case
$155.69
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 46.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 6:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:36 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:36 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TKO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Nick Khan
SELL
9518 shares
2026-04-06
Shane Kapral
SELL
254 shares
2026-03-09
Shane Kapral
SELL
616 shares
2026-03-03
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