TKO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TKO - TKO Group Holdings, Inc.
$183.91
2.10 (1.16%)
▲
5d:
+0.57%
30d:
-5.41%
90d:
-1.1%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TKO shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TKO shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$112.87
Based on 2.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$70.08
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TKO is currently trading at $183.91, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $179.84 to $198.97. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 46.5) compared to its historical average (35.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 9.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TKO is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $178.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $232.32 (+26.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TKO is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $178.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $232.32 (+26.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$179.84 -
$198.97
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.6%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.3% below Wall St target ($232.32)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 9.3% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$179.84 -
$198.97
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$178.50
Resistance Level
$188.85
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
46.53
Wall Street Target
$232.32
(+26.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
25.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
63.0%
Profit Margin
4.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+9.3% premium
PE vs Historical
46.5 vs 35.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+9.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$201.01
(+9%)
2-Year Target
$219.71
(+20%)
3-Year Target
$240.14
(+31%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 47→36)
PE COMPRESSION
$184.25
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 46.5, Growth: 1.4%)
$191.69
(+4%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 1.4%)
$85.40
(-54%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 1.4%)
$72.59
(-61%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 46.30 | Forward EPS (Implied): $3.97
Bull Case
$222.07
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 48.6
Base Case
$183.91
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 46.3
Bear Case
$140.69
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 41.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 2:44 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:44 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:44 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TKO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Nick Khan
SELL
9518 shares
2026-04-06
Shane Kapral
SELL
254 shares
2026-03-09
Shane Kapral
SELL
616 shares
2026-03-03
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