TKO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TKO - TKO Group Holdings, Inc.
$193.14
-2.31 (-1.18%)
▼
5d:
-4.04%
30d:
+7.64%
90d:
+0.79%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TKO is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: TKO is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$155.71
Based on 4.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$96.68
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TKO is currently trading at $193.14, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $181.68 to $194.70. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 39.8) compared to its historical average (36.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TKO is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $185.61, while resistance sits at $203.04.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $232.47 (+18.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TKO is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $185.61, while resistance sits at $203.04.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $232.47 (+18.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$181.68 -
$194.70
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
30th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TKO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 30th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (43/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($232.47)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (43/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$181.68 -
$194.70
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$8.85
(4.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$185.61
Resistance Level
$203.04
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
39.76
Wall Street Target
$232.47
(+18.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.4%
Profit Margin
4.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.3% premium
PE vs Historical
39.8 vs 36.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$201.90
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$208.56
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$215.45
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 40→36)
PE COMPRESSION
$195.06
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 39.8, Growth: 5.7%)
$230.67
(+18%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 5.7%)
$116.43
(-40%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 5.7%)
$98.96
(-49%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (48x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (40x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 47.85 | Forward EPS (Implied): $4.04
Bull Case
$233.22
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 50.2
Base Case
$193.14
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 47.9
Bear Case
$147.75
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 43.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 6:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TKO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Nick Khan
SELL
9518 shares
2026-04-06
Shane Kapral
SELL
254 shares
2026-03-09
Shane Kapral
SELL
616 shares
2026-03-03
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