TKO Group (TKO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TKO - TKO Group Holdings, Inc.
$190.31
0.67 (0.35%)
â˛
5d:
+0.47%
30d:
-2.48%
90d:
-10.95%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: TKO is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: TKO is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$155.85
Based on 4.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$96.77
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TKO is currently trading at $190.31, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $184.91 to $196.18. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 38.7) is in line with its historical norms (36.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TKO is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $180.21, while resistance sits at $196.06.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $231.16 (+21.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TKO is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $180.21, while resistance sits at $196.06.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $231.16 (+21.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$184.91 -
$196.18
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.3%
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.5% below Wall St target ($231.16)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 53/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$184.91 -
$196.18
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$180.21
Resistance Level
$196.06
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
38.68
Wall Street Target
$231.16
(+21.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.4%
Profit Margin
4.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.3% premium
PE vs Historical
38.7 vs 36.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$194.69
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$199.16
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$203.75
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 39â36)
PE COMPRESSION
$190.67
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 38.7, Growth: 5.7%)
$224.89
(+18%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 5.7%)
$117.26
(-38%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 5.7%)
$99.67
(-48%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (49x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (39x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 49.26 | Forward EPS (Implied): $3.86
Bull Case
$229.80
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 51.7
Base Case
$190.31
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 49.3
Bear Case
$145.59
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 44.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 7:48 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:48 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:48 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TKO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Nick Khan
SELL
9518 shares
2026-04-06
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