Asbury Automotive Group (ABG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ABG - Asbury Automotive Group, Inc.
$178.47
6.17 (3.58%)
▲
5d:
-0.82%
30d:
-14.75%
90d:
-13.11%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ABG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ABG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$339.87
Based on 9.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$211.03
15.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ABG is currently trading at $178.47, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $183.92 to $213.98. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.9) compared to its historical average (7.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ABG is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $169.02, while resistance sits at $188.24. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $258.36 (+44.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ABG is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $169.02, while resistance sits at $188.24. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $258.36 (+44.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$183.92 -
$213.98
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 44.8% below Wall St target ($258.36)
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$183.92 -
$213.98
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$169.02
Resistance Level
$188.24
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.89
Wall Street Target
$258.36
(+44.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-19.4%
Profit Margin
2.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.9 vs 7.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$166.87
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$156.02
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$145.88
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$178.22
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 14.7%)
$932.23
(+422%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.9, Growth: 14.7%)
$269.32
(+51%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.0, Growth: 14.7%)
$228.92
(+28%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (6x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 6.47 | Current EPS (TTM): $26.62
Bull Case
$215.61
(+21%)
Analyst growth 13.8%, PE expands to 7.1
Base Case
$196.01
(+10%)
Market implied 13.8%, PE stable at 6.5
Bear Case
$117.16
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.9 to 7.2
Stabilization Target:
$218.03
(+22.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 2:20 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:20 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:20 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ABG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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