ABG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ABG - Asbury Automotive Group, Inc.
$196.20
-0.85 (-0.43%)
▼
5d:
-1.67%
30d:
+7.31%
90d:
+6.01%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ABG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ABG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$332.16
Based on 9.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$206.24
4.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ABG is currently trading at $196.20, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $183.94 to $198.01. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.6) is in line with its historical norms (7.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 47.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ABG is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $189.13, while resistance sits at $204.04.
Market Sentiment: ABG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $232.30 (+18.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ABG is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $189.13, while resistance sits at $204.04.
Market Sentiment: ABG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $232.30 (+18.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$183.94 -
$198.01
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($232.30)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$183.94 -
$198.01
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$189.13
Resistance Level
$204.04
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.63
Wall Street Target
$232.30
(+18.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
47.1%
Profit Margin
3.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.6 vs 7.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$189.73
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$183.46
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$177.41
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
$195.28
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 14.1%)
$956.42
(+388%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.6, Growth: 14.1%)
$291.23
(+48%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.6, Growth: 14.1%)
$247.54
(+26%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 6.96 | Current EPS (TTM): $28.30
Bull Case
$226.59
(+16%)
Analyst growth 4.5%, PE expands to 7.7
Base Case
$205.99
(+5%)
Market implied 4.5%, PE stable at 7.0
Bear Case
$133.99
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.6 to 7.3
Stabilization Target:
$215.96
(+10.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 6:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:29 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:29 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ABG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
B. Christopher Disantis
BUY
500 shares
2026-03-10
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