Asbury Automotive Group (ABG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ABG - Asbury Automotive Group, Inc.
$164.05
-8.08 (-4.69%)
▼
5d:
+1.28%
30d:
-12.3%
90d:
-26.15%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ABG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ABG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$313.86
Based on 8.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$194.88
15.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ABG is currently trading at $164.05, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $165.53 to $188.84. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.6) compared to its historical average (7.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ABG is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $160.30. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: ABG scores 61/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $227.00 (+38.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ABG is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $160.30. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: ABG scores 61/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $227.00 (+38.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$165.53 -
$188.84
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
85.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (61/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.7%)
- BULLISH: Trading 38.4% below Wall St target ($227.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 53/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$165.53 -
$188.84
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$160.30
Resistance Level
$175.73
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.64
Wall Street Target
$227.00
(+38.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-19.4%
Profit Margin
2.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.6 vs 7.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$151.75
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$140.37
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$129.84
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$163.33
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 13.6%)
$845.24
(+415%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.6, Growth: 13.6%)
$240.20
(+46%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.8, Growth: 13.6%)
$204.17
(+25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (6x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 6.41 | Current EPS (TTM): $26.86
Bull Case
$204.90
(+25%)
Analyst growth 8.2%, PE expands to 7.1
Base Case
$186.27
(+14%)
Market implied 8.2%, PE stable at 6.4
Bear Case
$117.05
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.6 to 7.1
Stabilization Target:
$206.37
(+25.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+25.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 3:26 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:26 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:26 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ABG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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