Asbury Automotive Group (ABG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ABG - Asbury Automotive Group, Inc.
$208.50
-0.31 (-0.15%)
▼
5d:
-3.21%
30d:
-0.43%
90d:
+4.52%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ABG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ABG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$344.59
Based on 9.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$213.97
2.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ABG is currently trading at $208.50, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $208.14 to $217.59. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.9) is in line with its historical norms (7.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ABG is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $207.03. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $258.36 (+23.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ABG is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $207.03. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $258.36 (+23.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$208.14 -
$217.59
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (49/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.9% below Wall St target ($258.36)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (49/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$208.14 -
$217.59
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$207.03
Resistance Level
$223.50
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.89
Wall Street Target
$258.36
(+23.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-19.4%
Profit Margin
2.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.9 vs 7.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$204.75
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$201.06
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$197.44
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
$209.34
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 14.7%)
$921.72
(+342%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.9, Growth: 14.7%)
$314.63
(+51%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.9, Growth: 14.7%)
$267.44
(+28%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.91 | Current EPS (TTM): $26.41
Bull Case
$263.37
(+26%)
Analyst growth 14.7%, PE expands to 8.7
Base Case
$239.43
(+15%)
Market implied 14.7%, PE stable at 7.9
Bear Case
$141.99
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.9 to 7.3
Stabilization Target:
$221.06
(+6.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 11, 2026 9:04 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:04 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:04 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ABG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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