KMX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KMX - CarMax Inc.
$53.49
2.48 (4.86%)
▲
5d:
+4.92%
30d:
+11.41%
90d:
+18.03%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 10, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 29, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: KMX trades at premium valuation expecting 9.6% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: KMX trades at premium valuation expecting 9.6% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$37.96
Based on -1.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.57
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KMX is currently trading at $53.49, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $47.56 to $52.94. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 21.4) compared to its historical average (16.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 9.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KMX is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $49.42. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KMX is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $49.42. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$47.56 -
$52.94
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.3%
Protect Your Profits
Holding KMX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.9%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($51.31)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 9.6% growth with 5.5% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$47.56 -
$52.94
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$41.08
Resistance Level
$49.43
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.36
Wall Street Target
$51.31
(-4.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-5.2%
Profit Margin
0.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+9.6% premium
PE vs Historical
21.4 vs 16.2
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+9.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$58.63
(+10%)
2-Year Target
$64.25
(+20%)
3-Year Target
$70.42
(+32%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$53.40
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -6.5%)
$44.59
(+-17%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.4, Growth: -6.5%)
$43.73
(-18%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.2, Growth: -6.5%)
$33.16
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.63
Bull Case
$86.20
(+61%)
Analyst growth 53.6%, PE expands to 34.4
Base Case
$78.36
(+47%)
Market implied 53.6%, PE stable at 31.3
Bear Case
$34.69
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 8:28 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:28 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:28 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is KMX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-29
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-22
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