CarMax (KMX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$54.19
+0.08 (+0.15%)
â˛
5d:
+1.52%
30d:
+6.9%
90d:
-7.7%
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70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Dec 17, 2026
Protect KMX Gains
Updated Nov 10, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (69%)
Quality Score
47/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$51.66 â $55.11
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
21.6x
STRETCHED
vs 18.5x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$61.15
+12.9% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$51.00 / $58.70
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: KMX is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 5.4% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Nov 5, 2026 at $52.61 · last confirmed Nov 10, 2026
Strength: 4.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$43.35
Based on -1.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$26.91
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KMX is currently trading at $54.19, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $51.66 to $55.11. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 21.6) compared to its historical average (18.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KMX is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $51.00, while resistance sits at $58.70.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 54/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $61.15 (+12.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KMX is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $51.00, while resistance sits at $58.70.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 54/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $61.15 (+12.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$51.66 -
$55.11
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
69.0%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$51.66 -
$55.11
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support Level
$51.00
Resistance Level
$58.70
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
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Holding KMX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (54/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($61.15)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.4% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.64
Wall Street Target
$61.15
(+12.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
81.6%
Profit Margin
1.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.4% premium
PE vs Historical
21.6 vs 18.5
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$57.12
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$60.20
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$63.45
(+17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22â19)
PE COMPRESSION
$54.24
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.6, Growth: -6.5%)
$44.30
(+-18%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: -6.5%)
$40.66
(-25%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: -6.5%)
$34.56
(-36%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.64 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.11
Bull Case
$70.64
(+30%)
Analyst growth 18.7%, PE expands to 28.2
Base Case
$64.21
(+19%)
Market implied 18.7%, PE stable at 25.6
Bear Case
$36.79
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (KMX)
Bearish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 10, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
A bearish sentiment prevails on StockTwits regarding $KMX, as one user requested an SEC investigation into Carvana ($CVNA), raising concerns over potential market manipulation and insider activities.
Key Retail Themes:
SEC investigation
Potential market manipulation
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 6:28 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:28 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:28 AM
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