What is the fair value of KMX stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for KMX to be between $58.31 and $62.41. The current price is $61.32.

What is the analyst price target for KMX?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for KMX is $54.85. This implies a potential upside of -10.6% from current levels.

CarMax (KMX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

KMX - CarMax Inc.

RETAIL-AUTO DEALERS & GASOLINE STATIONS

$61.32

0.80 (1.32%) ▲

5d: -2.11%

30d: +4.45%

90d: +18.91%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Sep 24, 2026 11d

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $63.29 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026

Strength: 8.9/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Bottom Line:
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: KMX is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 11.5% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: -6.5%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$41.47

Based on -1.2% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$25.75

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.7x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: KMX is currently trading at $61.32, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $58.31 to $62.41. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 24.5) compared to its historical average (17.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 11.5% annual earnings growth.

Technical Outlook: Technically, KMX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $59.00, while resistance sits at $63.53.

Market Sentiment: KMX scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $54.85. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR

Historical Trading Range $58.31 - $62.41

Company Quality Score 30/100 (SELL)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 43.8%

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All Signals

NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BEARISH: Trading 10.6% above Wall St target ($54.85)
BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 11.5% growth with 5.5% revenue growth
WARNING: Composite score 30/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $58.31 - $62.41

Current vs Trading Range FAIR

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $59.00

Resistance Level $63.53

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 24.49

Wall Street Target $54.85 (-10.6%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 5.5%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -5.2%

Profit Margin 0.8%

Valuation Premium vs History +11.5% premium

PE vs Historical 24.5 vs 17.7 STRETCHED

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +11.5% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $68.37 (+12%)

2-Year Target $76.23 (+24%)

3-Year Target $85.00 (+39%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 24→18) PE COMPRESSION $61.44 (+0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 24.5, Growth: -6.5%) $50.13 (+-18%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: -6.5%) $41.29 (-33%)

Bear: (PE: 17.1, Growth: -6.5%) $35.10 (-43%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (37x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 37.36 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.62

Bull Case $102.90 (+68%)

Analyst growth 54.6%, PE expands to 41.1

Base Case $93.54 (+53%)

Market implied 54.6%, PE stable at 37.4

Bear Case $41.15 (-33%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 31.8

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: September 11, 2026 11:33 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:33 AM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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