Is KMX stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, KMX is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: KMX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of KMX stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for KMX to be between $57.29 and $62.45. The current price is $55.89.

What is the analyst price target for KMX?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for KMX is $62.08. This implies a potential upside of 11.1% from current levels.

CarMax (KMX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

KMX - CarMax Inc.

RETAIL-AUTO DEALERS & GASOLINE STATIONS

$55.89

0.78 (1.42%) ▲

5d: -0.83%

30d: -8.38%

90d: +9.63%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your KMX Gains

Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Sep 29, 2026 0d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 29, 2026 at $59.46 · last confirmed Oct 1, 2026

Strength: 8.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: KMX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: -6.5%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$42.41

Based on -1.2% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$26.33

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.1x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: KMX is currently trading at $55.89, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $57.29 to $62.45. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 22.3) compared to its historical average (18.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, KMX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $54.39. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $62.08 (+11.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $57.29 - $62.45

Company Quality Score 47/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 76.2%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (43/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($62.08)
NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 7.3% growth which is achievable
WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $57.29 - $62.45

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $54.39

Resistance Level $63.67

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Oct 1, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 22.32

Wall Street Target $62.08 (+11.1%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 11.2%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 81.6%

Profit Margin 1.0%

Valuation Premium vs History +7.3% premium

PE vs Historical 22.3 vs 18.1 STRETCHED

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +7.3% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $59.97 (+7%)

2-Year Target $64.35 (+15%)

3-Year Target $69.05 (+24%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 22→18) PE COMPRESSION $55.99 (+0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 22.3, Growth: -6.5%) $45.69 (+-18%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: -6.5%) $41.76 (-25%)

Bear: (PE: 17.3, Growth: -6.5%) $35.50 (-37%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 26.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.12

Bull Case $71.60 (+28%)

Analyst growth 18.1%, PE expands to 28.6

Base Case $65.09 (+17%)

Market implied 18.1%, PE stable at 26.0

Bear Case $37.47 (-33%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.1

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: October 02, 2026 2:20 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:20 AM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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NEUTRAL

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