CarMax (KMX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KMX - CarMax Inc.
$51.49
-2.33 (-4.33%)
▼
5d:
+3.35%
30d:
-9.41%
90d:
-11.82%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: KMX shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: KMX shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$42.88
Based on -1.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$26.62
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KMX is currently trading at $51.49, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $52.28 to $58.25. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 20.6) compared to its historical average (18.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KMX is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $49.05, while resistance sits at $54.80. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: KMX scores 84/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $63.77 (+23.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KMX is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $49.05, while resistance sits at $54.80. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: KMX scores 84/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $63.77 (+23.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$52.28 -
$58.25
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
86.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (84/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 23.8% below Wall St target ($63.77)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 84/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$52.28 -
$58.25
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$49.05
Resistance Level
$54.80
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.56
Wall Street Target
$63.77
(+23.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
81.6%
Profit Margin
1.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.0% premium
PE vs Historical
20.6 vs 18.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$53.55
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$55.69
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$57.92
(+13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→18)
PE COMPRESSION
$51.54
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: -6.5%)
$42.10
(+-18%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: -6.5%)
$40.66
(-21%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: -6.5%)
$34.56
(-33%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.51 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.11
Bull Case
$70.26
(+36%)
Analyst growth 18.7%, PE expands to 28.1
Base Case
$63.87
(+24%)
Market implied 18.7%, PE stable at 25.5
Bear Case
$36.60
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 3:26 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:26 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:26 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KMX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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