Arcosa (ACA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACA - Arcosa, Inc. Common Stock
$146.62
0.12 (0.08%)
▲
5d:
+0.0%
30d:
+0.8%
90d:
+0.85%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ACA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ACA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$218.99
Based on 11.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$135.97
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACA is currently trading at $146.62, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $145.09 to $146.15. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 28.6) compared to its historical average (24.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACA is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $145.45. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ACA scores 39/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACA is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $145.45. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ACA scores 39/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$145.09 -
$146.15
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
23.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (39/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($146.67)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 4.8% growth expectation is conservative given 449% recent growth
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$145.09 -
$146.15
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$145.45
Resistance Level
$146.82
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
28.62
Wall Street Target
$146.67
(+0.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
448.6%
Profit Margin
16.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.8% premium
PE vs Historical
28.6 vs 24.8
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$153.53
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$160.90
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$168.62
(+15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 29→25)
PE COMPRESSION
$146.14
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 28.6, Growth: 19.3%)
$248.68
(+70%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 19.3%)
$177.28
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 19.3%)
$150.69
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (29x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.62 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.48
Bull Case
$183.71
(+25%)
Analyst growth 14.3%, PE expands to 35.9
Base Case
$167.01
(+14%)
Market implied 14.3%, PE stable at 32.6
Bear Case
$99.38
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 12:14 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:14 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:14 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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