Arcosa (ACA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACA - Arcosa, Inc. Common Stock
$149.15
0.12 (0.08%)
▲
5d:
+1.46%
30d:
+1.81%
90d:
+2.86%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
6d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ACA trades at premium valuation expecting 5.1% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: ACA trades at premium valuation expecting 5.1% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$220.75
Based on 11.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$137.07
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACA is currently trading at $149.15, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $145.76 to $147.36. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 29.1) compared to its historical average (25.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACA is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $146.37. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACA is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $146.37. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$145.76 -
$147.36
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (57/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($146.67)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 5.1% growth expectation is conservative given 449% recent growth
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (57/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$145.76 -
$147.36
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$146.37
Resistance Level
$149.21
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
29.13
Wall Street Target
$146.67
(-1.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
448.6%
Profit Margin
16.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.1% premium
PE vs Historical
29.1 vs 25.1
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$156.76
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$164.75
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$173.15
(+16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 29→25)
PE COMPRESSION
$149.18
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 29.1, Growth: 19.3%)
$253.17
(+70%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 19.3%)
$172.58
(+16%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 19.3%)
$146.70
(-2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (36x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (29x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 36.44 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.09
Bull Case
$205.20
(+38%)
Analyst growth 25.2%, PE expands to 40.1
Base Case
$186.54
(+25%)
Market implied 25.2%, PE stable at 36.4
Bear Case
$101.34
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 31.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 6:47 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:47 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:47 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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