Arcosa (ACA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACA - Arcosa, Inc. Common Stock
$145.00
-0.25 (-0.17%)
âŧ
5d:
-0.33%
30d:
-0.03%
90d:
+14.22%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ACA is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 4.8% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ACA is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 4.8% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$217.22
Based on 11.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$134.88
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACA is currently trading at $145.00, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $144.99 to $145.46. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 28.3) compared to its historical average (24.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACA is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $145.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACA is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $145.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$144.99 -
$145.46
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (43/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($146.67)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 4.8% growth expectation is conservative given 449% recent growth
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$144.99 -
$145.46
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$145.00
Resistance Level
$145.77
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
28.32
Wall Street Target
$146.67
(+1.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
448.6%
Profit Margin
16.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.8% premium
PE vs Historical
28.3 vs 24.6
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$151.96
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$159.25
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$166.90
(+15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 28â25)
PE COMPRESSION
$144.96
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 28.3, Growth: 19.3%)
$246.13
(+70%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 19.3%)
$175.28
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 19.3%)
$148.99
(+3%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (28x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.49 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.47
Bull Case
$182.99
(+26%)
Analyst growth 14.5%, PE expands to 35.7
Base Case
$166.36
(+15%)
Market implied 14.5%, PE stable at 32.5
Bear Case
$98.77
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 9:37 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:37 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:37 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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