Arch Capital Group (ACGL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACGL - Arch Capital Group Ltd
$93.60
-0.66 (-0.70%)
▼
5d:
-1.12%
30d:
-4.69%
90d:
-8.06%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 26, 2026
23d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ACGL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ACGL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$115.25
Based on 3.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$71.56
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACGL is currently trading at $93.60, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $94.66 to $99.00. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.7) is in line with its historical norms (9.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACGL is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $92.28. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 51/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $111.66 (+18.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACGL is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $92.28. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 51/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $111.66 (+18.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$94.66 -
$99.00
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (51/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($111.66)
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$94.66 -
$99.00
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$92.28
Resistance Level
$97.64
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.66
Wall Street Target
$111.66
(+18.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-10.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-7.1%
Profit Margin
24.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.7 vs 9.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$93.69
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$93.13
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$92.57
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$93.93
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 3.6%)
$221.19
(+135%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.7, Growth: 3.6%)
$104.72
(+11%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.2, Growth: 3.6%)
$89.01
(-6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.44 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.41
Bull Case
$79.90
(-15%)
Analyst growth -21.4%, PE expands to 8.2
Base Case
$72.64
(-23%)
Market implied -21.4%, PE stable at 7.4
Bear Case
$62.80
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.7 to 9.8
Stabilization Target:
$95.65
(+1.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 4:58 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:58 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:58 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACGL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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