ACGL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACGL - Arch Capital Group Ltd
$100.53
-0.61 (-0.60%)
▼
5d:
-2.74%
30d:
+2.01%
90d:
+6.43%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ACGL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ACGL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$117.75
Based on 4.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$73.11
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACGL is currently trading at $100.53, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $96.81 to $103.42. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.3) is in line with its historical norms (9.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACGL is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $97.58. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $111.55 (+11.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACGL is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $97.58. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $111.55 (+11.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$96.81 -
$103.42
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($111.55)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.6% growth with -10.5% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$96.81 -
$103.42
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$97.58
Resistance Level
$107.09
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.28
Wall Street Target
$111.55
(+11.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-10.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-7.1%
Profit Margin
24.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.6% premium
PE vs Historical
10.3 vs 9.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$102.14
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$103.77
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$105.43
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$100.53
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 4.4%)
$230.46
(+129%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.3, Growth: 4.4%)
$114.26
(+14%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.7, Growth: 4.4%)
$97.12
(-3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 8.18 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.36
Bull Case
$88.04
(-12%)
Analyst growth -20.9%, PE expands to 9.0
Base Case
$80.04
(-20%)
Market implied -20.9%, PE stable at 8.2
Bear Case
$68.77
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 12:14 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:14 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:14 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACGL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Brian S Posner
SELL
3000 shares
2026-03-11
David Gansberg
SELL
5907 shares
2026-03-10
Nicolas Papadopoulo
SELL
21930 shares
2026-03-10
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