Arch Capital Group (ACGL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$109.17
+0.03 (+0.03%)
▲
5d:
-1.36%
30d:
+12.72%
90d:
+11.36%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (27%)
Quality Score
27/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$96.38 – $106.89
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
10.9x
FAIR
vs 9.9x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$113.58
+4.0% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$103.26 / $113.63
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ACGL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$102.41
Based on 0.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$63.59
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACGL is currently trading at $109.17, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $96.38 to $106.89. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 10.9) compared to its historical average (9.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACGL is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $103.26, while resistance sits at $113.63.
Market Sentiment: ACGL scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACGL is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $103.26, while resistance sits at $113.63.
Market Sentiment: ACGL scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$96.38 -
$106.89
Company Quality Score
27/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.1%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$96.38 -
$106.89
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$103.26
Resistance Level
$113.63
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (5/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($113.58)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.4% growth with -8.9% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 27/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.94
Wall Street Target
$113.58
(+4.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-8.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-15.7%
Profit Margin
23.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.4% premium
PE vs Historical
10.9 vs 9.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$112.88
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$116.72
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$120.69
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$109.20
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -2.5%)
$183.78
(+68%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.9, Growth: -2.5%)
$101.25
(-7%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.3, Growth: -2.5%)
$86.06
(-21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 8.92 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.23
Bull Case
$97.95
(-10%)
Analyst growth -18.4%, PE expands to 9.8
Base Case
$89.04
(-18%)
Market implied -18.4%, PE stable at 8.9
Bear Case
$74.22
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (ACGL)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 28, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Arch Capital Group (ACGL) reported Q3 earnings with a revenue decline of 5.2% YoY to $4.47 billion and an EPS surprise of 24.19%. Key metrics such as underwriting ratios and net premiums earned showed mixed results.
Key Retail Themes:
Earnings report and financial performance
Key performance metrics comparison to estimates
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 8:18 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:18 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:18 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACGL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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