ACGL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACGL - Arch Capital Group Ltd
$99.39
0.08 (0.08%)
â˛
5d:
+0.69%
30d:
-0.71%
90d:
+3.39%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ACGL is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.2% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ACGL is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.2% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$117.01
Based on 4.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$72.65
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACGL is currently trading at $99.39, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $98.07 to $102.44. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.2) is in line with its historical norms (9.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACGL is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $96.95. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ACGL scores 69/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $111.87 (+12.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACGL is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $96.95. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ACGL scores 69/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $111.87 (+12.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$98.07 -
$102.44
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (69/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($111.87)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.2% growth with -10.5% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$98.07 -
$102.44
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$96.95
Resistance Level
$100.58
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.18
Wall Street Target
$111.87
(+12.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-10.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-7.1%
Profit Margin
24.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.2% premium
PE vs Historical
10.2 vs 9.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$100.58
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$101.79
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$103.01
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10â10)
PE COMPRESSION
$99.20
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 4.2%)
$221.54
(+123%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.2, Growth: 4.2%)
$112.34
(+13%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.7, Growth: 4.2%)
$95.49
(-4%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.71 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.88
Bull Case
$82.83
(-17%)
Analyst growth -24.2%, PE expands to 8.5
Base Case
$75.30
(-24%)
Market implied -24.2%, PE stable at 7.7
Bear Case
$67.53
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 2:26 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:26 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:26 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACGL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
3000 shares
2026-03-11
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21930 shares
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