ACGL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACGL - Arch Capital Group Ltd
$100.55
-1.28 (-1.26%)
▼
5d:
-0.97%
30d:
+10.28%
90d:
+3.14%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
6d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ACGL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.7% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ACGL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.7% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$121.77
Based on 4.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$75.61
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACGL is currently trading at $100.55, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $93.75 to $101.95. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.2) is in line with its historical norms (9.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACGL is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $97.92. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACGL is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $97.92. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$93.75 -
$101.95
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($110.61)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$93.75 -
$101.95
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$97.92
Resistance Level
$103.47
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.25
Wall Street Target
$110.61
(+10.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
94.6%
Profit Margin
24.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.7% premium
PE vs Historical
10.3 vs 9.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$102.26
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$104.00
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$105.77
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$101.09
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.9, Growth: 5.7%)
$242.33
(+141%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.3, Growth: 5.7%)
$118.60
(+18%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.7, Growth: 5.7%)
$100.81
(+0%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.79 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.07
Bull Case
$84.05
(-16%)
Analyst growth -25.0%, PE expands to 8.6
Base Case
$76.40
(-24%)
Market implied -25.0%, PE stable at 7.8
Bear Case
$69.24
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 21, 2026 6:00 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:00 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:00 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACGL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Brian S Posner
SELL
3000 shares
2026-03-11
David Gansberg
SELL
5907 shares
2026-03-10
Nicolas Papadopoulo
SELL
21930 shares
2026-03-10
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