Arch Capital Group (ACGL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACGL - Arch Capital Group Ltd
$96.09
-0.11 (-0.11%)
▼
5d:
-3.75%
30d:
-1.23%
90d:
+5.44%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 26, 2026
Get Alerted When ACGL Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ACGL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ACGL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$116.62
Based on 4.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$72.41
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACGL is currently trading at $96.09, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $97.20 to $99.97. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.8) is in line with its historical norms (9.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACGL is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $94.65. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $111.87 (+16.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACGL is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $94.65. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $111.87 (+16.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$97.20 -
$99.97
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (41/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($111.87)
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$97.20 -
$99.97
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$94.65
Resistance Level
$100.51
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.85
Wall Street Target
$111.87
(+16.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-10.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-7.1%
Profit Margin
24.4%
PE vs Historical
9.9 vs 9.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$96.09
(0%)
2-Year Target
$96.09
(0%)
3-Year Target
$96.09
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$95.62
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 4.1%)
$221.91
(+131%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.8, Growth: 4.1%)
$108.35
(+13%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.4, Growth: 4.1%)
$92.10
(-4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.52 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.79
Bull Case
$80.73
(-16%)
Analyst growth -23.7%, PE expands to 8.3
Base Case
$73.39
(-24%)
Market implied -23.7%, PE stable at 7.5
Bear Case
$65.42
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 10:50 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:50 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:50 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is ACGL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Insurance - Diversified Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Insurance - Diversified by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
HIG
Hartford Financial Servi… |
BUY
19 analysts |
$150 | 59 HOLD |
|
SLF
Sun Life Financial Inc. |
BUY
13 analysts |
$64 | 56 HOLD |
|
AIG
American International G… |
HOLD
17 analysts |
$89 | 42 HOLD |
|
WDH
Waterdrop Inc ADR |
STRONG BUY
5 analysts |
$2 | 44 HOLD |
|
FIHL
Fidelis Insurance Holdin… |
HOLD
9 analysts |
$22 | 47 HOLD |
