Arch Capital Group (ACGL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACGL - Arch Capital Group Ltd
$102.69
2.41 (2.40%)
▲
5d:
+3.4%
30d:
+7.91%
90d:
-0.65%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ACGL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ACGL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$187.03
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$116.13
11.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACGL is currently trading at $102.69, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $94.15 to $99.19. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.5) is in line with its historical norms (9.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACGL is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $103.84. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ACGL scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACGL is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $103.84. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ACGL scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$94.15 -
$99.19
Company Quality Score
35/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (20/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($110.13)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.1% growth with -10.5% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 35/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$94.15 -
$99.19
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$95.43
Resistance Level
$103.84
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.48
Wall Street Target
$110.13
(+7.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-10.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-7.1%
Profit Margin
24.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.1% premium
PE vs Historical
10.5 vs 9.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$104.85
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$107.05
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$109.30
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$102.22
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 39.0%)
$196.93
(+92%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.5, Growth: 39.0%)
$103.90
(+1%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.9, Growth: 39.0%)
$88.31
(-14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.85 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.78
Bull Case
$84.59
(-18%)
Analyst growth -23.3%, PE expands to 8.6
Base Case
$76.90
(-25%)
Market implied -23.3%, PE stable at 7.9
Bear Case
$68.19
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 6:27 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:27 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:27 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACGL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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