The Hartford Insurance Group (HIG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HIG - The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc.
$125.74
3.38 (2.76%)
▲
5d:
+0.04%
30d:
-8.31%
90d:
-8.78%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 26, 2026
23d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HIG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HIG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$174.64
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$108.44
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HIG is currently trading at $125.74, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $128.07 to $138.96. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.2) is in line with its historical norms (9.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 36.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HIG is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $120.42, while resistance sits at $132.78.
Market Sentiment: HIG scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $149.40 (+18.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HIG is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $120.42, while resistance sits at $132.78.
Market Sentiment: HIG scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $149.40 (+18.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$128.07 -
$138.96
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (36/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($149.40)
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$128.07 -
$138.96
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$120.42
Resistance Level
$132.78
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.19
Wall Street Target
$149.40
(+18.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
36.1%
Profit Margin
14.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.2 vs 9.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$123.35
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$121.01
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$118.71
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$125.30
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 7.3%)
$344.47
(+174%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.2, Growth: 7.3%)
$155.18
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.8, Growth: 7.3%)
$131.90
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 8.44 | Current EPS (TTM): $14.49
Bull Case
$127.09
(+1%)
Analyst growth -5.6%, PE expands to 9.3
Base Case
$115.54
(-8%)
Market implied -5.6%, PE stable at 8.4
Bear Case
$83.20
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.2 to 9.7
Stabilization Target:
$132.72
(+5.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 01, 2026 11:02 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:02 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:02 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HIG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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