Ares Commercial Real Estate (ACRE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$3.47
-0.14 (-3.88%)
▼
5d:
+2.06%
30d:
-0.86%
90d:
-26.48%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (24%)
Quality Score
43/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$3.32 – $3.79
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
16.7x
FAIR
vs 17.3x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$4.94
+42.3% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$3.28 / $3.90
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ACRE shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$4.57
Based on 5.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$2.84
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACRE is currently trading at $3.47, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.32 to $3.79. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.7) is in line with its historical norms (17.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 125.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACRE is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3.28, while resistance sits at $3.90. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: ACRE scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $4.94 (+42.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACRE is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3.28, while resistance sits at $3.90. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: ACRE scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $4.94 (+42.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$3.32 -
$3.79
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
23.8%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$3.32 -
$3.79
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$3.28
Resistance Level
$3.90
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (36/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.9%)
- BULLISH: Trading 42.3% below Wall St target ($4.94)
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.73
Wall Street Target
$4.94
(+42.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-28.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
125.0%
Profit Margin
3.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.7 vs 17.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.43
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$3.39
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$3.36
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→17)
$3.47
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 5.9%)
$4.89
(+41%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.7, Growth: 5.9%)
$4.12
(+19%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.2, Growth: 5.9%)
$3.50
(+1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 7.34 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.47
Bull Case
$4.19
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 7.7
Base Case
$3.47
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 7.3
Bear Case
$2.65
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 6.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.7 to 17.3
Stabilization Target:
$3.59
(+3.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.4%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (ACRE)
Bullish
1 Retail Mentions
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Jan 7, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Bullish sentiment prevails on StockTwits with one trader expressing confidence in $ACRE's potential to reach $4.80. The latest article from Zacks Investment Research features Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation (ACRE) as one of seven strong finance stocks slated for positive earnings surprises.
Key Retail Themes:
Positive earnings surprises
Bullish sentiment
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 9:16 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:16 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:16 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACRE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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