Ares Commercial Real Estate (ACRE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACRE - Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation
$3.26
0.10 (3.16%)
▲
5d:
-8.94%
30d:
-22.75%
90d:
-28.35%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 06, 2026
13d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ACRE shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ACRE shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$6.13
Based on 4.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$3.81
14.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACRE is currently trading at $3.26, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.60 to $4.31. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.8) compared to its historical average (17.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1598.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACRE is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3.16, while resistance sits at $3.69. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.00 (+53.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACRE is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3.16, while resistance sits at $3.69. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.00 (+53.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$3.60 -
$4.31
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (50/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading 53.4% below Wall St target ($5.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$3.60 -
$4.31
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.16
Resistance Level
$3.69
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.82
Wall Street Target
$5.00
(+53.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-58.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1598.1%
Profit Margin
-12.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.8 vs 17.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$2.93
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$2.64
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$2.38
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→18)
$3.56
(+9%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 5.3%)
$6.41
(+97%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.8, Growth: 5.3%)
$3.81
(+17%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.0, Growth: 5.3%)
$3.24
(-1%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.8 to 17.7
Stabilization Target:
$4.88
(+49.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+49.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 7:31 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:31 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:31 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACRE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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