ACRE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACRE - Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation
$4.25
-0.01 (-0.23%)
▼
5d:
-8.41%
30d:
-5.97%
90d:
-19.66%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
TODAY
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ACRE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ACRE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.72
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.01
61.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACRE is currently trading at $4.25, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.38 to $4.60. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.2) compared to its historical average (19.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 22.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1598.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACRE is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.14. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ACRE has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.20 (+22.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACRE is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.14. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ACRE has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.20 (+22.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$4.38 -
$4.60
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.1% below Wall St target ($5.20)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-8.4%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.38 -
$4.60
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.14
Resistance Level
$4.68
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.22
Wall Street Target
$5.20
(+22.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-88.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1598.1%
Profit Margin
-36.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-22.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.2 vs 19.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-22.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.83
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$3.45
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$3.11
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→20)
$6.63
(+56%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 45.2%)
$29.31
(+588%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.2, Growth: 45.2%)
$13.04
(+206%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.8, Growth: 45.2%)
$11.08
(+160%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.2 to 19.7
Stabilization Target:
$9.10
(+113.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+113.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 4:00 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:00 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:00 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACRE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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