ACRE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACRE - Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation
$4.55
0.03 (0.66%)
▲
5d:
-5.21%
30d:
-6.76%
90d:
-5.6%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ACRE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ACRE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$22.50
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.97
67.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACRE is currently trading at $4.55, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.68 to $4.99. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.6) compared to its historical average (21.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 26.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1598.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACRE is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ACRE has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.30 (+16.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACRE is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ACRE has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.30 (+16.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$4.68 -
$4.99
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($5.30)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.2% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.68 -
$4.99
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.21
(4.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.50
Resistance Level
$5.06
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.63
Wall Street Target
$5.30
(+16.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-88.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1598.1%
Profit Margin
-36.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-26.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.6 vs 21.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-26.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.09
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$3.69
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$3.32
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→22)
$8.42
(+85%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 39.7%)
$31.35
(+589%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.6, Growth: 39.7%)
$12.41
(+173%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.3, Growth: 39.7%)
$10.55
(+132%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.6 to 21.9
Stabilization Target:
$11.55
(+153.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+153.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 5:05 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:05 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:05 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACRE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Anton Feingold
SELL
7606 shares
2026-01-14
Bryan Patrick Donohoe
SELL
21761 shares
2026-01-14
Jeffrey Michael Gonzales
SELL
6218 shares
2026-01-14
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