Ares Commercial Real Estate (ACRE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACRE - Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation
$3.83
-0.04 (-1.03%)
▼
5d:
-8.59%
30d:
-15.82%
90d:
-15.45%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ACRE shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ACRE shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$5.01
Based on -4.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$3.11
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACRE is currently trading at $3.83, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.12 to $4.61. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.2) compared to its historical average (18.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 14.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1598.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACRE is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $3.75. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ACRE scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.30 (+38.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACRE is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $3.75. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ACRE scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.30 (+38.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$4.12 -
$4.61
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 38.4% below Wall St target ($5.30)
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.12 -
$4.61
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.75
Resistance Level
$4.45
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.19
Wall Street Target
$5.30
(+38.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-58.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1598.1%
Profit Margin
-12.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-14.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.2 vs 18.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-14.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.45
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$3.10
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$2.79
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→18)
$4.54
(+19%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: -12.2%)
$5.09
(+33%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.2, Growth: -12.2%)
$2.79
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.5, Growth: -12.2%)
$2.37
(-38%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.2 to 18.2
Stabilization Target:
$6.23
(+62.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+62.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 11:59 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACRE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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