Adamas Trust (ADAM) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADAM - Adamas Trust, Inc. Common Stock
$7.73
0.29 (3.90%)
▲
5d:
-0.77%
30d:
-8.3%
90d:
-10.64%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ADAM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ADAM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$10.72
Based on 2.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.66
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADAM is currently trading at $7.73, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.48 to $8.59. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.2) compared to its historical average (7.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 21.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADAM is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $7.91. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: ADAM scores 68/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (26th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.04 (+55.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADAM is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $7.91. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: ADAM scores 68/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (26th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.04 (+55.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$7.48 -
$8.59
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
26th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
96.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 26th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (68/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.9%)
- BULLISH: Trading 55.8% below Wall St target ($12.04)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 68/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$7.48 -
$8.59
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.62
(8.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.30
Resistance Level
$7.91
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.23
Wall Street Target
$12.04
(+55.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
129.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
21.2%
Profit Margin
53.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.2 vs 7.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.24
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$6.79
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$6.36
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→8)
$7.76
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 1.2%)
$25.54
(+230%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.2, Growth: 1.2%)
$8.01
(+4%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.3, Growth: 1.2%)
$6.81
(-12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 4.43 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.68
Bull Case
$6.05
(-22%)
Analyst growth -26.1%, PE expands to 4.9
Base Case
$5.50
(-29%)
Market implied -26.1%, PE stable at 4.4
Bear Case
$5.06
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 3.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.2 to 7.6
Stabilization Target:
$9.43
(+22.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 6:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADAM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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