Adamas Trust (ADAM) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADAM - Adamas Trust, Inc. Common Stock
$7.81
0.03 (0.39%)
▲
5d:
-4.05%
30d:
-18.73%
90d:
-14.83%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ADAM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ADAM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$10.98
Based on 2.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.82
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADAM is currently trading at $7.81, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.30 to $9.74. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.3) compared to its historical average (7.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 21.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADAM is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $7.53, while resistance sits at $9.05.
Market Sentiment: ADAM scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.12 (+55.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADAM is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $7.53, while resistance sits at $9.05.
Market Sentiment: ADAM scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.12 (+55.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$8.30 -
$9.74
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 55.2% below Wall St target ($12.12)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 34% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.30 -
$9.74
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.53
Resistance Level
$9.05
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.26
Wall Street Target
$12.13
(+55.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
129.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
21.2%
Profit Margin
53.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.3 vs 7.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.29
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$6.81
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$6.36
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→8)
$7.83
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 1.4%)
$26.58
(+240%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.3, Growth: 1.4%)
$8.15
(+4%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.3, Growth: 1.4%)
$6.93
(-11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 4.63 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.68
Bull Case
$6.36
(-19%)
Analyst growth -25.7%, PE expands to 5.1
Base Case
$5.78
(-26%)
Market implied -25.7%, PE stable at 4.6
Bear Case
$5.29
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 3.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.3 to 7.7
Stabilization Target:
$9.61
(+23.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+23.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 10:59 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:59 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:59 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADAM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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