ADAM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADAM - Adamas Trust, Inc. Common Stock
$9.39
0.31 (3.47%)
▲
5d:
+7.75%
30d:
+2.68%
90d:
+5.57%
SELL
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⚠️ CAUTION: ADAM is extended with warning signals. Consider taking profits or waiting for better entry.
⚠️ CAUTION: ADAM is extended with warning signals. Consider taking profits or waiting for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9.66
Based on 1.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.00
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADAM is currently trading at $9.38, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.80 to $9.31. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.8) is in line with its historical norms (7.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADAM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $9.39. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: ADAM has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.88 (+30.9%). Given the valuation headwinds and technical position, caution is warranted at these levels.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADAM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $9.39. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: ADAM has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.88 (+30.9%). Given the valuation headwinds and technical position, caution is warranted at these levels.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$8.80 -
$9.31
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
34.3%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading 30.9% below Wall St target ($11.88)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.80 -
$9.31
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.53
Resistance Level
$9.39
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.79
Wall Street Target
$11.88
(+30.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
21.2%
Profit Margin
48.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.2% premium
PE vs Historical
7.8 vs 7.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.09
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$9.11
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$9.12
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$9.02
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: -1.0%)
$23.43
(+158%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.8, Growth: -1.0%)
$8.80
(-3%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.6, Growth: -1.0%)
$7.48
(-18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.39 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.21
Bull Case
$9.47
(+4%)
Analyst growth -3.7%, PE expands to 8.1
Base Case
$8.61
(-5%)
Market implied -3.7%, PE stable at 7.4
Bear Case
$6.08
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 1:52 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:52 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:52 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADAM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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