Adamas Trust (ADAM) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$5.33
-0.12 (-2.20%)
▼
5d:
-13.75%
30d:
-30.01%
90d:
-47.18%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (80%)
Quality Score
47/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$6.18 – $7.92
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
4.3x
CHEAP
vs 7.4x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$11.17
+109.5% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$5.32 / $7.29
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ADAM is down 13.8% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.27
Based on 4.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.00
23.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADAM is currently trading at $5.33, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.18 to $7.92. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.3) compared to its historical average (7.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 16.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 21.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADAM is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $5.32. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.17 (+109.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADAM is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $5.32. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.17 (+109.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$6.18 -
$7.92
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$6.18 -
$7.92
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$5.32
Resistance Level
$7.29
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 109.5% below Wall St target ($11.17)
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.29
Wall Street Target
$11.17
(+109.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
129.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
21.2%
Profit Margin
-1.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-16.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.3 vs 7.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-16.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.80
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$4.32
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$3.89
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→7)
$6.71
(+26%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 4.3%)
$28.00
(+425%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.3, Growth: 4.3%)
$6.05
(+13%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.6, Growth: 4.3%)
$5.14
(-4%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.3 to 7.4
Stabilization Target:
$9.20
(+72.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+72.6%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (ADAM)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 28, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Trader on StockTwits expresses bullish sentiment towards $ADAM, expecting the company to beat earnings estimates for the seventh time in nine quarters.
Key Retail Themes:
Earnings
Bullish
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 5:44 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:44 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:44 AM
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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