Adeia (ADEA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADEA - Adeia Inc. Common Stock
$21.27
-1.29 (-5.72%)
âŧ
5d:
-2.16%
30d:
-15.09%
90d:
-18.03%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 02, 2026
9d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ADEA is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -6.0% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ADEA is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -6.0% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$37.91
Based on 8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.54
9.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADEA is currently trading at $21.27, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.55 to $25.70. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.3) compared to its historical average (16.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADEA is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $20.33, while resistance sits at $24.42. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: ADEA scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.00 (+102.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADEA is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $20.33, while resistance sits at $24.42. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: ADEA scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.00 (+102.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$22.55 -
$25.70
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
85.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (74/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.7%)
- BULLISH: Trading 102.2% below Wall St target ($43.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 53/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$22.55 -
$25.70
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.33
Resistance Level
$24.42
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.29
Wall Street Target
$43.00
(+102.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.1%
Profit Margin
26.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.3 vs 16.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$19.99
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$18.79
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$17.67
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13â16)
$21.27
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 12.4%)
$45.18
(+112%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.3, Growth: 12.4%)
$30.23
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.3, Growth: 12.4%)
$25.70
(+21%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.09
Bull Case
$36.45
(+71%)
Analyst growth 46.9%, PE expands to 22.8
Base Case
$33.13
(+56%)
Market implied 46.9%, PE stable at 20.7
Bear Case
$15.34
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.3 to 16.0
Stabilization Target:
$25.61
(+20.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 1:31 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:31 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:31 AM
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Technical Signals Check
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
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NEUTRAL
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