Adeia (ADEA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$17.13
+0.88 (+5.38%)
▲
5d:
+1.18%
30d:
-25.96%
90d:
-40.31%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (84%)
Quality Score
46/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$18.67 – $24.50
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
12.6x
CHEAP
vs 15.8x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$38.25
+123.4% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$14.66 / $22.69
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ADEA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.86
Based on 3.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.05
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADEA is currently trading at $17.12, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.67 to $24.50. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.6) compared to its historical average (15.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADEA is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $14.66, while resistance sits at $22.69. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 58/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $38.25 (+123.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADEA is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $14.66, while resistance sits at $22.69. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 58/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $38.25 (+123.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$18.67 -
$24.50
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$18.67 -
$24.50
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$14.66
Resistance Level
$22.69
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (58/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading 123.4% below Wall St target ($38.25)
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.58
Wall Street Target
$38.25
(+123.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-8.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-75.0%
Profit Margin
25.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.6 vs 15.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.87
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$14.72
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$13.64
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→16)
$17.13
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 3.5%)
$29.99
(+75%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.6, Growth: 3.5%)
$19.00
(+11%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.7, Growth: 3.5%)
$16.15
(-6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.78 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.03
Bull Case
$23.62
(+38%)
Analyst growth 32.2%, PE expands to 17.4
Base Case
$21.48
(+25%)
Market implied 32.2%, PE stable at 15.8
Bear Case
$11.05
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.6 to 15.8
Stabilization Target:
$21.51
(+25.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+25.6%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (ADEA)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 9, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Trader on StockTwits expresses bullish outlook on $ADEA, predicting a return to $20.
Key Retail Themes:
Price prediction
Bullish sentiment
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 1:23 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:23 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:23 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADEA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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