Adeia (ADEA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADEA - Adeia Inc. Common Stock
$25.74
0.40 (1.58%)
â˛
5d:
+1.02%
30d:
+3.04%
90d:
-12.24%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 02, 2026
29d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ADEA is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.1% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ADEA is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.1% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$38.15
Based on 8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.69
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADEA is currently trading at $25.74, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.82 to $26.40. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.1) is in line with its historical norms (16.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADEA is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $23.55, while resistance sits at $26.52.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.00 (+67.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADEA is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $23.55, while resistance sits at $26.52.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.00 (+67.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$24.82 -
$26.40
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 67.1% below Wall St target ($43.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 53/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$24.82 -
$26.40
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$23.55
Resistance Level
$26.53
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.08
Wall Street Target
$43.00
(+67.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.1%
Profit Margin
26.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.1 vs 16.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$25.71
(0%)
2-Year Target
$25.69
(0%)
3-Year Target
$25.66
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16â16)
$25.70
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 12.4%)
$46.41
(+80%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.1, Growth: 12.4%)
$36.58
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.7, Growth: 12.4%)
$31.10
(+21%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.25 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.09
Bull Case
$40.94
(+59%)
Analyst growth 46.9%, PE expands to 25.6
Base Case
$37.21
(+45%)
Market implied 46.9%, PE stable at 23.3
Bear Case
$17.23
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.1 to 16.1
Stabilization Target:
$25.77
(+0.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 11:01 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:01 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:01 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADEA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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