ADEA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADEA - Adeia Inc. Common Stock
$26.25
-0.71 (-2.63%)
▼
5d:
-12.0%
30d:
-2.45%
90d:
-0.42%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 20, 2026 at $26.96 · last confirmed Aug 20, 2026
Strength: 6.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ADEA is down 12.0% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ADEA is down 12.0% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$39.00
Based on 8.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$24.22
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADEA is currently trading at $26.25, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.81 to $29.16. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.3) is in line with its historical norms (16.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADEA is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $26.15. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ADEA scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.00 (+63.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADEA is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $26.15. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ADEA scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.00 (+63.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$25.81 -
$29.16
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (20/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 63.8% below Wall St target ($43.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$25.81 -
$29.16
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$26.15
Resistance Level
$30.41
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.30
Wall Street Target
$43.00
(+63.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.1%
Profit Margin
26.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.3% premium
PE vs Historical
16.3 vs 16.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$26.33
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$26.41
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$26.49
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$26.17
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 13.1%)
$46.81
(+78%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.3, Growth: 13.1%)
$38.01
(+45%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.9, Growth: 13.1%)
$32.31
(+23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.20 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.07
Bull Case
$44.64
(+70%)
Analyst growth 50.5%, PE expands to 27.7
Base Case
$40.59
(+55%)
Market implied 50.5%, PE stable at 25.2
Bear Case
$18.33
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 11:04 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:04 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:04 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADEA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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