Adeia (ADEA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADEA - Adeia Inc. Common Stock
$26.71
0.41 (1.54%)
▲
5d:
+4.91%
30d:
-4.98%
90d:
-18.12%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 02, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Sep 9, 2026 at $26.83 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026
Strength: 5.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
🚀 STRONG BUY: ADEA shows excellent value with unusually cheap options (IV 10th percentile) and market pricing in only 0.9% annual growth despite strong fundamentals. High conviction opportunity.
🚀 STRONG BUY: ADEA shows excellent value with unusually cheap options (IV 10th percentile) and market pricing in only 0.9% annual growth despite strong fundamentals. High conviction opportunity.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$39.00
Based on 8.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$24.22
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADEA is currently trading at $26.71, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.67 to $28.85. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.6) is in line with its historical norms (16.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADEA is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $27.39. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ADEA scores 72/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (10th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.00 (+61.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADEA is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $27.39. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ADEA scores 72/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (10th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.00 (+61.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$25.67 -
$28.85
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
10th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
87.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 10th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (72/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 61.0% below Wall St target ($43.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 72/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$25.67 -
$28.85
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.46
(9.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.16
Resistance Level
$27.39
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.58
Wall Street Target
$43.00
(+61.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.1%
Profit Margin
26.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.9% premium
PE vs Historical
16.6 vs 16.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$26.95
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$27.19
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$27.44
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$26.64
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 13.1%)
$47.05
(+76%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.6, Growth: 13.1%)
$38.68
(+45%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.1, Growth: 13.1%)
$32.88
(+23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.13 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.09
Bull Case
$42.76
(+60%)
Analyst growth 47.8%, PE expands to 26.6
Base Case
$38.87
(+46%)
Market implied 47.8%, PE stable at 24.1
Bear Case
$17.89
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 1:44 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:44 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:44 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADEA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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