ADM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADM - Archer Daniels Midland Company
$79.27
-1.34 (-1.66%)
▼
5d:
-7.74%
30d:
+3.47%
90d:
+6.35%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
1d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ADM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ADM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$123.88
Based on 9.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$76.92
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADM is currently trading at $79.27, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $76.86 to $84.29. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.5) is in line with its historical norms (14.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 0.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $78.93. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $78.93. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$76.86 -
$84.29
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ADM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($75.50)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -7.7% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$76.86 -
$84.29
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$78.93
Resistance Level
$88.46
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.50
Wall Street Target
$75.50
(-4.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
0.9%
Profit Margin
1.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.5 vs 14.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$78.72
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$78.16
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$77.62
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→15)
$79.22
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 13.9%)
$167.24
(+111%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.5, Growth: 13.9%)
$116.98
(+48%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.3, Growth: 13.9%)
$99.44
(+25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (36x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 35.83 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.25
Bull Case
$177.34
(+124%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 39.4
Base Case
$161.22
(+103%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 35.8
Bear Case
$54.81
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 30.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.5 to 14.8
Stabilization Target:
$80.91
(+2.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 5:50 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:50 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:50 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-03-20
Ian R Pinner
SELL
34106 shares
2026-03-13
Gregory A Morris
SELL
50000 shares
2026-03-10
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