ADM
Archer Daniels Midland Company
FATS & OILS
Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$69.30
-0.54 (-0.77%)
▼
5d:
-1.84%
30d:
-13.83%
90d:
-13.08%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
0d
Protect ADM Gains
Updated Nov 10, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (77%)
Quality Score
51/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$73.49 – $82.68
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
12.3x
CHEAP
vs 14.6x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$78.50
+13.3% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$68.79 / $78.26
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ADM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 29, 2026 at $76.20 · last confirmed Nov 9, 2026
Strength: 6.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.07
Based on -23.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.22
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADM is currently trading at $69.30, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $73.49 to $82.68. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.3) compared to its historical average (14.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 671.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $68.79. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $78.50 (+13.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $68.79. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $78.50 (+13.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$73.49 -
$82.68
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$73.49 -
$82.68
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$68.79
Resistance Level
$78.26
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding ADM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($78.50)
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.26
Wall Street Target
$78.50
(+13.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
671.0%
Profit Margin
2.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.3 vs 14.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$65.35
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$61.62
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$58.11
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→15)
$69.20
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -51.2%)
$110.54
(+60%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.3, Growth: -51.2%)
$68.24
(-2%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.4, Growth: -51.2%)
$58.00
(-16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.64 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.12
Bull Case
$84.81
(+22%)
Analyst growth 10.4%, PE expands to 15.0
Base Case
$77.10
(+11%)
Market implied 10.4%, PE stable at 13.6
Bear Case
$47.49
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.3 to 14.6
Stabilization Target:
$82.52
(+19.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.1%
Share ADM Analysis
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (ADM)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 6, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) stock trades at a lower P/E ratio than the median S&P 500 company, and the company has reported a significant year-over-year increase in profit. However, cash from operations and earnings per share trail earlier years.
Key Retail Themes:
ADM's profit growth
Cash flow concerns
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 7:36 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:36 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:36 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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