Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADM - Archer Daniels Midland Company
$79.52
0.14 (0.18%)
▲
5d:
-2.88%
30d:
-5.95%
90d:
+3.56%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
Get Alerted When ADM Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ADM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ADM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$99.23
Based on 3.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$61.61
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADM is currently trading at $79.52, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $80.10 to $85.88. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.0) is in line with its historical norms (14.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 315.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $78.10. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ADM scores 37/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $78.10. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ADM scores 37/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$80.10 -
$85.88
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ADM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (37/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($80.40)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$80.10 -
$85.88
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$78.10
Resistance Level
$87.93
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.02
Wall Street Target
$80.40
(+1.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
315.6%
Profit Margin
2.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.0 vs 14.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$78.17
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$76.84
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$75.53
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→15)
$79.17
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 3.1%)
$126.74
(+59%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.0, Growth: 3.1%)
$87.13
(+10%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.9, Growth: 3.1%)
$74.06
(-7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.66
Bull Case
$135.27
(+70%)
Analyst growth 54.9%, PE expands to 23.9
Base Case
$122.98
(+55%)
Market implied 54.9%, PE stable at 21.7
Bear Case
$53.98
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.0 to 14.7
Stabilization Target:
$83.35
(+4.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 4:13 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:13 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:13 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is ADM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Featured in Portfolios
ADM is a key holding in these high-performance investment strategies.
Top Rated Farm Products Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Farm Products by analyst ratings.
Advanced ADM Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ADM price and gamma walls.
