ADSK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADSK - Autodesk Inc
$193.82
0.75 (0.39%)
▲
5d:
-5.72%
30d:
-20.62%
90d:
-21.74%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 28, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ADSK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ADSK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$402.36
Based on 8.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$249.83
22.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADSK is currently trading at $193.82, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $211.11 to $244.01. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.6) compared to its historical average (22.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 231.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADSK is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $190.86. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $319.27 (+64.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADSK is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $190.86. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $319.27 (+64.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$211.11 -
$244.01
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ADSK? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 64.7% below Wall St target ($319.27)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.7% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$211.11 -
$244.01
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$190.86
Resistance Level
$236.50
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.63
Wall Street Target
$319.27
(+64.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
231.4%
Profit Margin
19.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.6 vs 22.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$175.02
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$158.04
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$142.71
(-26%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→23)
$193.93
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 13.8%)
$374.21
(+93%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.6, Growth: 13.8%)
$285.75
(+47%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.1, Growth: 13.8%)
$242.89
(+25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.19 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.85
Bull Case
$361.31
(+86%)
Analyst growth 70.1%, PE expands to 31.0
Base Case
$328.47
(+70%)
Market implied 70.1%, PE stable at 28.2
Bear Case
$131.29
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.6 to 22.6
Stabilization Target:
$263.38
(+35.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+35.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 20, 2026 12:42 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:42 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:42 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADSK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
4
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-30
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-23
Michael T. McCaul
BUY
2026-02-27
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