Autodesk (ADSK) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADSK - Autodesk Inc
$239.90
-5.26 (-2.15%)
▼
5d:
+1.93%
30d:
+9.72%
90d:
+10.15%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 16, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 24, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ADSK shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ADSK shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$379.22
Based on 8.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$235.46
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADSK is currently trading at $239.90, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $209.91 to $232.18. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.6) is in line with its historical norms (21.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 59.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADSK is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $218.21, while resistance sits at $251.74.
Market Sentiment: ADSK scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $307.54 (+28.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADSK is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $218.21, while resistance sits at $251.74.
Market Sentiment: ADSK scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $307.54 (+28.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$209.91 -
$232.18
Company Quality Score
33/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
28.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ADSK? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (5/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 28.2% below Wall St target ($307.54)
- WARNING: Composite score 33/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$209.91 -
$232.18
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$218.21
Resistance Level
$251.74
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 16, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.59
Wall Street Target
$307.54
(+28.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
59.6%
Profit Margin
21.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.6 vs 21.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$237.02
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$234.18
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$231.37
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→21)
$239.40
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 13.8%)
$353.69
(+47%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 13.8%)
$341.22
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 13.8%)
$290.04
(+21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.90 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.20
Bull Case
$383.26
(+60%)
Analyst growth 42.1%, PE expands to 32.9
Base Case
$348.42
(+45%)
Market implied 42.1%, PE stable at 29.9
Bear Case
$166.71
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.6 to 21.3
Stabilization Target:
$248.23
(+3.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 18, 2026 6:23 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:23 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:23 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADSK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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