ADSK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADSK - Autodesk Inc
$211.15
-6.65 (-3.05%)
▼
5d:
+2.54%
30d:
+8.94%
90d:
-13.93%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 27, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ADSK shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ADSK shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$389.90
Based on 8.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$242.10
12.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADSK is currently trading at $211.15, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $193.60 to $211.92. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.1) compared to its historical average (21.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 231.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADSK is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $198.01, while resistance sits at $221.81. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: ADSK has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $318.30 (+50.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADSK is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $198.01, while resistance sits at $221.81. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: ADSK has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $318.30 (+50.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$193.60 -
$211.92
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 50.7% below Wall St target ($318.30)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$193.60 -
$211.92
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$198.01
Resistance Level
$221.81
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.12
Wall Street Target
$318.30
(+50.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
231.4%
Profit Margin
19.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.1 vs 21.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$198.27
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$186.18
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$174.82
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→22)
$211.30
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.9, Growth: 13.8%)
$359.95
(+71%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.1, Growth: 13.8%)
$311.30
(+47%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.4, Growth: 13.8%)
$264.61
(+25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.83 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.86
Bull Case
$408.03
(+87%)
Analyst growth 69.9%, PE expands to 35.0
Base Case
$370.93
(+70%)
Market implied 69.9%, PE stable at 31.8
Bear Case
$148.48
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.1 to 21.9
Stabilization Target:
$255.22
(+20.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 21, 2026 5:57 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:57 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:57 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADSK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
4
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-30
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-23
Michael T. McCaul
BUY
2026-02-27
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ADSK price and gamma walls.
