Autodesk (ADSK) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADSK - Autodesk Inc
$217.90
-19.62 (-8.26%)
▼
5d:
-16.4%
30d:
-10.13%
90d:
-5.24%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 4, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 27, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Sep 1, 2026 at $250.75 · last confirmed Sep 4, 2026
Strength: 8.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ADSK is down 16.4% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ADSK is down 16.4% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$386.34
Based on 8.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$239.89
9.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADSK is currently trading at $217.90, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $235.47 to $257.03. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.7) compared to its historical average (21.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 59.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADSK is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $216.20. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 8.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: ADSK scores 29/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $315.37 (+44.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADSK is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $216.20. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 8.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: ADSK scores 29/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $315.37 (+44.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$235.47 -
$257.03
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ADSK? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (29/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-8.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 44.7% below Wall St target ($315.37)
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$235.47 -
$257.03
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$216.20
Resistance Level
$271.72
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 4, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.70
Wall Street Target
$315.37
(+44.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
59.6%
Profit Margin
21.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.7 vs 21.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$207.22
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$197.07
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$187.41
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→22)
$217.50
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 13.8%)
$347.58
(+60%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.7, Growth: 13.8%)
$321.25
(+47%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.9, Growth: 13.8%)
$273.07
(+25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.81 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.71
Bull Case
$394.92
(+81%)
Analyst growth 51.2%, PE expands to 33.9
Base Case
$359.02
(+65%)
Market implied 51.2%, PE stable at 30.8
Bear Case
$161.51
(-26%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.7 to 21.7
Stabilization Target:
$252.89
(+16.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 08, 2026 7:27 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:27 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:27 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADSK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-30
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-23
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Advanced ADSK Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ADSK price and gamma walls.
