ADSK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADSK - Autodesk Inc
$245.25
7.87 (3.32%)
▲
5d:
+20.52%
30d:
+25.61%
90d:
+4.43%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 29, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 27, 2026
27d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: ADSK is 10.8% above its trading range ($221.31). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: ADSK is 10.8% above its trading range ($221.31). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$388.12
Based on 8.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$240.99
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADSK is currently trading at $245.25, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $194.51 to $221.31. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.0) is in line with its historical norms (21.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 231.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADSK is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $249.14. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: ADSK has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $313.89 (+28.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADSK is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $249.14. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: ADSK has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $313.89 (+28.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$194.51 -
$221.31
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
ADSK is technically overbought (RSI 70). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+10.8% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 28.0% below Wall St target ($313.89)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$194.51 -
$221.31
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$202.15
Resistance Level
$249.14
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 29, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.04
Wall Street Target
$313.89
(+28.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
231.4%
Profit Margin
19.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.0 vs 21.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$242.55
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$239.88
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$237.25
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→22)
$245.76
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.0, Growth: 13.8%)
$361.58
(+47%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.8, Growth: 13.8%)
$357.55
(+46%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.7, Growth: 13.8%)
$303.91
(+24%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 33.02 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.19
Bull Case
$423.23
(+73%)
Analyst growth 62.1%, PE expands to 36.3
Base Case
$384.75
(+57%)
Market implied 62.1%, PE stable at 33.0
Bear Case
$161.42
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.0 to 21.8
Stabilization Target:
$254.05
(+3.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 30, 2026 4:12 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:12 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:12 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADSK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
4
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-30
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-23
Michael T. McCaul
BUY
2026-02-27
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