Alliance Entertainment (AENT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AENT - Alliance Entertainment Holding Corporation Class A Common Stock
$4.49
0.08 (1.81%)
▲
5d:
-7.99%
30d:
-10.2%
90d:
-24.92%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 11, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AENT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AENT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.10
Based on 9.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.89
34.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AENT is currently trading at $4.49, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.71 to $5.55. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.6) compared to its historical average (12.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 14.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 24.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AENT is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 54/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.00 (+100.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AENT is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 54/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.00 (+100.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$4.71 -
$5.55
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
MODERATE
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (54/100)
- BULLISH: Trading 100.4% below Wall St target ($9.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.71 -
$5.55
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.36
Resistance Level
$5.30
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.61
Wall Street Target
$9.00
(+100.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
24.8%
Profit Margin
1.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-14.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.6 vs 12.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-14.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.04
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$3.64
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$3.27
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→12)
$5.20
(+16%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 14.6%)
$18.10
(+303%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.6, Growth: 14.6%)
$6.75
(+50%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.5, Growth: 14.6%)
$5.74
(+28%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.96 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.26
Bull Case
$9.70
(+116%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 18.7
Base Case
$8.82
(+96%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 17.0
Bear Case
$3.00
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.6 to 12.1
Stabilization Target:
$7.14
(+59.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+59.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 6:33 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:33 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:33 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AENT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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