Is AFRM stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, AFRM is currently a HOLD with low confidence. 📊 HOLD: AFRM is fairly valued with market pricing in -0.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.

What is the fair value of AFRM stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for AFRM to be between $69.12 and $75.17. The current price is $70.43.

What is the analyst price target for AFRM?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for AFRM is $99.09. This implies a potential upside of 40.7% from current levels.

Affirm (AFRM) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

AFRM - Affirm Holdings, Inc. Class A Common Stock

PERSONAL CREDIT INSTITUTIONS

$70.43

1.20 (1.73%) ▲

5d: -1.59%

30d: +0.7%

90d: -16.73%

HOLD

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 05, 2026

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 30, 2026 at $70.04 · last confirmed Oct 1, 2026

Strength: 5.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AFRM is fairly valued with market pricing in -0.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 15.8%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$112.90

Based on 9.9% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$70.10

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.8x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: AFRM is currently trading at $70.43, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $69.12 to $75.17. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.7) is in line with its historical norms (18.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in -0.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, AFRM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $66.63, while resistance sits at $73.37.

Market Sentiment: AFRM scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $99.09 (+40.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY LOW

Historical Trading Range $69.12 - $75.17

Company Quality Score 63/100 (BUY)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 91.4%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 40.7% below Wall St target ($99.09)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in -0.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 17% over 20 days — wait for relative strength

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $69.12 - $75.17

Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY LOW

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $66.63

Resistance Level $73.37

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Oct 1, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 18.73

Wall Street Target $99.09 (+40.7%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 33.0%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 2186.9%

Profit Margin 45.3%

PE vs Historical 18.7 vs 18.8 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): 0% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $70.43 (0%)

2-Year Target $70.43 (0%)

3-Year Target $70.43 (0%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 19→19) $70.67 (+0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.4, Growth: 15.8%) $118.95 (+69%)

Base: (SPY PE: 18.7, Growth: 15.8%) $109.24 (+55%)

Bear: (PE: 15.9, Growth: 15.8%) $92.86 (+32%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

Trailing PE: 12.54 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.52

Bull Case $51.86 (-26%)

Analyst growth -31.9%, PE expands to 13.8

Base Case $47.15 (-33%)

Market implied -31.9%, PE stable at 12.5

Bear Case $47.08 (-33%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.7

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: October 02, 2026 4:53 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:53 AM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Noel Bertram Watson SELL 2000 shares 2026-04-14

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Advanced AFRM Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AFRM price and gamma walls.

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