What is the fair value of AFRM stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for AFRM to be between $72.41 and $79.16. The current price is $77.03.

What is the analyst price target for AFRM?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for AFRM is $91.20. This implies a potential upside of 18.4% from current levels.

AFRM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

AFRM - Affirm Holdings, Inc. Class A Common Stock

PERSONAL CREDIT INSTITUTIONS

$77.03

1.98 (2.64%) ▲

5d: -1.68%

30d: +8.17%

90d: +14.66%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Aug 27, 2026 3d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 19, 2026 at $77.33 · last confirmed Aug 21, 2026

Strength: 5.4/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Bottom Line:
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: AFRM is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 3.5% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 20.6%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$123.34

Based on 12.3% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$76.58

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.7x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: AFRM is currently trading at $77.03, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $72.41 to $79.16. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 20.7) compared to its historical average (18.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, AFRM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $71.50, while resistance sits at $80.65.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 52/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $91.20 (+18.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR

Historical Trading Range $72.41 - $79.16

Company Quality Score 53/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 71.0%

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All Signals

NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (52/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($91.20)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
WARNING: Composite score 53/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $72.41 - $79.16

Current vs Trading Range FAIR

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $71.50

Resistance Level $80.65

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Aug 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 20.72

Wall Street Target $91.20 (+18.4%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 32.6%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 3529.3%

Profit Margin 9.6%

Valuation Premium vs History +3.5% premium

PE vs Historical 20.7 vs 18.7 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +3.5% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $79.73 (+4%)

2-Year Target $82.52 (+7%)

3-Year Target $85.40 (+11%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 21→19) PE COMPRESSION $77.09 (+0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.7, Growth: 20.6%) $134.99 (+75%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 20.6%) $130.78 (+70%)

Bear: (PE: 17.1, Growth: 20.6%) $111.16 (+44%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (40x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.

Forward PE: 40.00 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.93

Bull Case $93.01 (+21%)

Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 42.0

Base Case $77.03 (0%)

Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 40.0

Bear Case $58.93 (-24%)

Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 36.0

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: August 22, 2026 8:23 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:23 PM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Noel Bertram Watson SELL 2000 shares 2026-04-14

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