Is MA stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, MA is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: MA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of MA stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for MA to be between $560.13 and $588.30. The current price is $550.00.

What is the analyst price target for MA?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for MA is $666.71. This implies a potential upside of 21.2% from current levels.

Mastercard (MA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

MA - Mastercard Incorporated

SERVICES-BUSINESS SERVICES, NEC

$550.00

-1.47 (-0.27%) ▼

5d: -2.84%

30d: -5.35%

90d: +1.97%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your MA Gains

Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 29, 2026 27d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 30, 2026 at $551.47 · last confirmed Sep 30, 2026

Strength: 4.6/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 15.5%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$887.84

Based on 9.8% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$551.28

0.2% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.3x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: MA is currently trading at $550.00, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $560.13 to $588.30. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 23.9) is in line with its historical norms (24.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 22.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, MA is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $546.12. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $666.71 (+21.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $560.13 - $588.30

Company Quality Score 55/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 79.5%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (53/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 21.2% below Wall St target ($666.71)
NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (53/100) — watch for confirmation

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $560.13 - $588.30

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $546.12

Resistance Level $571.35

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Oct 1, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 23.89

Wall Street Target $666.71 (+21.2%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 14.1%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 22.1%

Profit Margin 46.3%

Valuation Discount vs History -0.5% cheaper

PE vs Historical 23.9 vs 24.3 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -0.5% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $547.25 (-1%)

2-Year Target $544.51 (-1%)

3-Year Target $541.79 (-2%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 24→24) $551.15 (+0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 23.9, Growth: 15.5%) $848.03 (+54%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 15.5%) $724.22 (+32%)

Bear: (PE: 17.3, Growth: 15.5%) $615.59 (+12%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 30.30 | Current EPS (TTM): $18.20

Bull Case $767.43 (+40%)

Analyst growth 26.5%, PE expands to 33.3

Base Case $697.66 (+27%)

Market implied 26.5%, PE stable at 30.3

Bear Case $375.00 (-32%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.8

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 23.9 to 24.3

Stabilization Target: $559.50 (+1.7%)

PE Expansion Potential: +1.7%

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Last updated: October 01, 2026 6:21 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:21 PM

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