Mastercard (MA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$658.84
+3.03 (+0.46%)
▲
5d:
+1.8%
30d:
+10.71%
90d:
+17.71%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (23%)
Quality Score
34/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$585.46 – $648.77
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
28.4x
STRETCHED
vs 24.6x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$716.39
+8.7% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$605.00 / $681.99
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 30, 2026 at $635.87 · last confirmed Nov 10, 2026
Strength: 7.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$904.17
Based on 9.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$561.42
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MA is currently trading at $658.84, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $585.46 to $648.77. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 28.4) compared to its historical average (24.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MA is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $605.00, while resistance sits at $681.99.
Market Sentiment: MA scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MA is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $605.00, while resistance sits at $681.99.
Market Sentiment: MA scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$585.46 -
$648.77
Company Quality Score
34/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
22.9%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$585.46 -
$648.77
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$605.00
Resistance Level
$681.99
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Protect Your Profits
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View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($716.39)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.0% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 34/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
28.44
Wall Street Target
$716.39
(+8.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
21.7%
Profit Margin
46.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.0% premium
PE vs Historical
28.4 vs 24.6
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$691.78
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$726.37
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$762.69
(+16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 28→25)
PE COMPRESSION
$659.61
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 28.4, Growth: 15.5%)
$1014.25
(+54%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 15.5%)
$708.15
(+8%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 15.5%)
$601.93
(-9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (34x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (28x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 34.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $19.11
Bull Case
$874.37
(+33%)
Analyst growth 21.2%, PE expands to 37.8
Base Case
$794.88
(+21%)
Market implied 21.2%, PE stable at 34.3
Bear Case
$445.95
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (MA)
Bearish
4 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
3
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 5, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Bill Ackman expressed concerns over the volatile and leveraged stock market, but despite his warning, he continues to hold stocks including Pershing Square, which barely moved after hours. The market chaos, according to Ackman, is leading to massive moves in stocks, which could be risky for investors.
Key Retail Themes:
Market volatility
Pershing Square holding
Ackman's warning
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 10, 2026 9:10 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:10 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:10 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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