MA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MA - Mastercard Incorporated
$484.09
-5.70 (-1.16%)
▼
5d:
-1.2%
30d:
-2.8%
90d:
-2.46%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 9.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MA appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.4% annual earnings decline despite 21% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MA appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.4% annual earnings decline despite 21% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$886.20
Based on 10.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$550.26
12.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MA is currently trading at $484.09, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $484.36 to $499.04. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 21.2) compared to its historical average (24.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 21.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MA is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $464.52, while resistance sits at $500.11.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $644.89 (+33.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MA is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $464.52, while resistance sits at $500.11.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $644.89 (+33.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$484.36 -
$499.04
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 33.2% below Wall St target ($644.89)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$484.36 -
$499.04
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$464.52
Resistance Level
$500.11
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.25
Wall Street Target
$644.89
(+33.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
21.2%
Profit Margin
45.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.3 vs 24.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$462.79
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$442.43
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$422.96
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→24)
$483.64
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 15.9%)
$771.77
(+59%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.3, Growth: 15.9%)
$753.04
(+56%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.1, Growth: 15.9%)
$640.08
(+32%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.33 | Current EPS (TTM): $17.29
Bull Case
$709.82
(+47%)
Analyst growth 31.7%, PE expands to 31.2
Base Case
$645.29
(+33%)
Market implied 31.7%, PE stable at 28.3
Bear Case
$333.06
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.3 to 24.3
Stabilization Target:
$553.54
(+14.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 2:20 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:20 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:20 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
6
Buys
6
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Shelley Moore Capito
BUY
2026-03-28
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-20
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