Is MA stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, MA is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of MA stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for MA to be between $543.43 and $573.83. The current price is $580.63.

What is the analyst price target for MA?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for MA is $667.30. This implies a potential upside of 14.9% from current levels.

MA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

MA - Mastercard Incorporated

SERVICES-BUSINESS SERVICES, NEC

$580.63

6.78 (1.18%) ▲

5d: +1.99%

30d: +9.49%

90d: +16.21%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Jul 30, 2026 0d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $562.95 · last confirmed Aug 18, 2026

Strength: 5.4/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 15.6%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$886.19

Based on 9.8% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$550.25

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.2x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: MA is currently trading at $580.63, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $543.43 to $573.83. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 25.2) is in line with its historical norms (24.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, MA is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $582.93. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $667.30 (+14.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $543.43 - $573.83

Company Quality Score 49/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 49.5%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (44/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($667.30)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $543.43 - $573.83

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $556.06

Resistance Level $582.93

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Aug 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 25.22

Wall Street Target $667.30 (+14.9%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 14.1%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 22.1%

Profit Margin 46.3%

Valuation Premium vs History +1.4% premium

PE vs Historical 25.2 vs 24.2 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +1.4% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $588.76 (+1%)

2-Year Target $597.00 (+3%)

3-Year Target $605.36 (+4%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 25→24) PE COMPRESSION $580.96 (+0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 25.2, Growth: 15.6%) $897.06 (+55%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 15.6%) $713.97 (+23%)

Bear: (PE: 17.1, Growth: 15.6%) $606.88 (+5%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (25x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 31.55 | Current EPS (TTM): $18.19

Bull Case $799.05 (+38%)

Analyst growth 26.6%, PE expands to 34.7

Base Case $726.41 (+25%)

Market implied 26.6%, PE stable at 31.6

Bear Case $390.22 (-33%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.8

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: August 22, 2026 11:50 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:50 PM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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Net

NEUTRAL

Recent Transactions

Ro Khanna SELL 2026-03-30

Shelley Moore Capito BUY 2026-03-28

Ro Khanna SELL 2026-03-20

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