Is MA stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, MA is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of MA stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for MA to be between $556.20 and $601.70. The current price is $622.62.

What is the analyst price target for MA?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for MA is $674.25. This implies a potential upside of 8.3% from current levels.

Mastercard (MA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

MA - Mastercard Incorporated

SERVICES-BUSINESS SERVICES, NEC

$622.62

2.20 (0.35%) ▲

5d: +3.21%

30d: +12.0%

90d: +17.41%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your MA Gains

Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 29, 2026 6d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 6, 2026 at $566.58 · last confirmed Oct 15, 2026

Strength: 6.7/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 15.7%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$897.17

Based on 9.9% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$557.07

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.4x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: MA is currently trading at $622.62, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $556.20 to $601.70. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 27.0) compared to its historical average (24.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, MA is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $624.66. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: MA scores 10/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $556.20 - $601.70

Company Quality Score 38/100 (SELL)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 24.8%

Protect Your Profits

MA is technically overbought (RSI 76). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (10/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($674.25)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
WARNING: Composite score 38/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $556.20 - $601.70

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $568.49

Resistance Level $624.66

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Oct 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 26.99

Wall Street Target $674.25 (+8.3%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 14.1%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 22.1%

Profit Margin 46.3%

Valuation Premium vs History +3.5% premium

PE vs Historical 27.0 vs 24.4 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +3.5% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $644.41 (+4%)

2-Year Target $666.97 (+7%)

3-Year Target $690.31 (+11%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 27→24) PE COMPRESSION $624.07 (+0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 27.0, Growth: 15.7%) $963.71 (+55%)

Base: (SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 15.7%) $709.13 (+14%)

Bear: (PE: 16.9, Growth: 15.7%) $602.76 (-3%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (34x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (27x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 33.90 | Current EPS (TTM): $18.30

Bull Case $860.30 (+38%)

Analyst growth 26.1%, PE expands to 37.3

Base Case $782.09 (+26%)

Market implied 26.1%, PE stable at 33.9

Bear Case $421.89 (-32%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.8

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: October 21, 2026 9:04 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:04 PM

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