What is the fair value of MA stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for MA to be between $525.06 and $564.11. The current price is $562.95.

What is the analyst price target for MA?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for MA is $660.34. This implies a potential upside of 15.7% from current levels.

MA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

MA - Mastercard Incorporated

SERVICES-BUSINESS SERVICES, NEC

$562.95

-13.00 (-2.26%) ▼

5d: -1.77%

30d: +7.6%

90d: +12.38%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Aug 7, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Jul 30, 2026 0d

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $562.95 · last confirmed Aug 7, 2026

Strength: 6.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Bottom Line:
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: MA is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.0% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 15.4%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$876.25

Based on 9.7% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$544.09

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.1x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: MA is currently trading at $562.95, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $525.06 to $564.11. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 24.9) is in line with its historical norms (24.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, MA is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $542.02, while resistance sits at $583.71.

Market Sentiment: MA has a weak technical setup (24/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $660.34 (+15.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY HIGH

Historical Trading Range $525.06 - $564.11

Company Quality Score 46/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 41.4%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Weak technical setup (24/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($660.34)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $525.06 - $564.11

Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY HIGH

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $542.02

Resistance Level $583.71

Current Trend Uptrend

Technical data as of Aug 7, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 24.86

Wall Street Target $660.34 (+15.7%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 14.1%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 22.1%

Profit Margin 46.3%

Valuation Premium vs History +1.0% premium

PE vs Historical 24.9 vs 24.1 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +1.0% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $576.68 (+1%)

2-Year Target $582.45 (+2%)

3-Year Target $588.27 (+3%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 25→24) PE COMPRESSION $570.20 (0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 24.9, Growth: 15.4%) $877.56 (+54%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 15.4%) $731.66 (+28%)

Bear: (PE: 17.6, Growth: 15.4%) $621.91 (+9%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (25x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 31.54 | Current EPS (TTM): $18.17

Bull Case $796.74 (+42%)

Analyst growth 26.4%, PE expands to 34.7

Base Case $724.31 (+29%)

Market implied 26.4%, PE stable at 31.5

Bear Case $389.71 (-31%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.8

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: August 08, 2026 6:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:06 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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NEUTRAL

Recent Transactions

Ro Khanna SELL 2026-03-30

Shelley Moore Capito BUY 2026-03-28

Ro Khanna SELL 2026-03-20

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