AFYA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AFYA - Afya Limited Class A Common Shares
$14.96
0.05 (0.37%)
▲
5d:
+3.0%
30d:
+10.13%
90d:
+7.59%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 11, 2026
19d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AFYA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AFYA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$20.64
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.81
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AFYA is currently trading at $14.96, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.79 to $14.70. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 1.4) is in line with its historical norms (1.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AFYA is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $15.25. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AFYA scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.46 (+17.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AFYA is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $15.25. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AFYA scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.46 (+17.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$12.79 -
$14.70
Company Quality Score
22/100
(STRONG SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($17.46)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 22/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.79 -
$14.70
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.77
Resistance Level
$15.25
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.45
Wall Street Target
$17.46
(+17.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.6%
Profit Margin
20.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.1% premium
PE vs Historical
1.5 vs 1.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.06
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$15.23
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$15.40
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→1)
PE COMPRESSION
$14.84
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 11.1%)
$279.71
(+1777%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.5, Growth: 11.1%)
$20.46
(+37%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.2, Growth: 11.1%)
$17.39
(+17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.15 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.65
Bull Case
$33.22
(+123%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 10.1
Base Case
$30.20
(+103%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 9.2
Bear Case
$10.27
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 10:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:46 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:46 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AFYA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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