AFYA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AFYA - Afya Limited Class A Common Shares
$12.08
0.04 (0.33%)
▲
5d:
-12.02%
30d:
-17.15%
90d:
-20.89%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 11, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: AFYA is down 12.0% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: AFYA is down 12.0% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$20.32
Based on 7.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.62
4.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AFYA is currently trading at $12.08, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.89 to $14.58. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.2) compared to its historical average (1.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 17.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AFYA is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $11.62, while resistance sits at $13.76.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.42 (+44.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AFYA is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $11.62, while resistance sits at $13.76.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.42 (+44.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$12.89 -
$14.58
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (50/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 44.2% below Wall St target ($17.42)
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.89 -
$14.58
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.62
Resistance Level
$13.76
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.18
Wall Street Target
$17.42
(+44.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.6%
Profit Margin
20.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.2 vs 1.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.39
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$10.74
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$10.13
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→1)
$12.00
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 10.6%)
$281.69
(+2232%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.2, Growth: 10.6%)
$16.32
(+35%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.0, Growth: 10.6%)
$13.87
(+15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.25 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.66
Bull Case
$26.49
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 8.0
Base Case
$24.08
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 7.3
Bear Case
$8.19
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.2 to 1.4
Stabilization Target:
$14.31
(+18.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+18.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 8:31 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:31 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:31 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AFYA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
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2026-04-17
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SELL
16279 shares
2026-04-09
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