AFYA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AFYA - Afya Limited Class A Common Shares
$14.27
-0.02 (-0.14%)
▼
5d:
+2.66%
30d:
-4.87%
90d:
-0.97%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 12, 2026
8d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AFYA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AFYA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.94
Based on 6.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.38
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AFYA is currently trading at $14.27, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.01 to $14.83. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 1.4) is in line with its historical norms (1.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 3.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AFYA is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $13.57, while resistance sits at $14.78.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.03 (+19.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AFYA is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $13.57, while resistance sits at $14.78.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.03 (+19.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$14.01 -
$14.83
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($17.03)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.01 -
$14.83
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.58
Resistance Level
$14.78
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.40
Wall Street Target
$17.03
(+19.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3.2%
Profit Margin
20.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.4 vs 1.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.20
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$14.13
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$14.06
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→1)
$14.09
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 9.8%)
$280.31
(+1864%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.4, Growth: 9.8%)
$18.89
(+32%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.2, Growth: 9.8%)
$16.06
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.10 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.57
Bull Case
$31.44
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 10.0
Base Case
$28.58
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 9.1
Bear Case
$9.72
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.4 to 1.4
Stabilization Target:
$14.30
(+0.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 7:15 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:15 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:15 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AFYA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
12
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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2026-04-17
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SELL
16279 shares
2026-04-09
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