AFYA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$10.72
+0.21 (+2.00%)
▲
5d:
+2.1%
30d:
-26.17%
90d:
-20.06%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
HOLD
LOW Confidence (91%)
Quality Score
63/100
Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
30-Day Fair Range
$10.62 – $14.69
Position: SLIGHTLY LOW
Forward P/E & Valuation
1.0x
CHEAP
vs 1.4x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$15.17
+44.3% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$9.66 / $11.05
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 HOLD: AFYA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.24
Based on 6.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.95
10.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AFYA is currently trading at $10.72, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.62 to $14.69. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.0) compared to its historical average (1.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 17.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AFYA is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $9.66, while resistance sits at $11.05.
Market Sentiment: AFYA scores 88/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.17 (+44.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AFYA is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $9.66, while resistance sits at $11.05.
Market Sentiment: AFYA scores 88/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.17 (+44.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$10.62 -
$14.69
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$10.62 -
$14.69
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support Level
$9.66
Resistance Level
$11.05
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (88/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 44.3% below Wall St target ($15.17)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 14% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.04
Wall Street Target
$15.17
(+44.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.6%
Profit Margin
20.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.0 vs 1.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.54
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$8.67
(-18%)
3-Year Target
$7.87
(-25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→1)
$10.57
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 8.8%)
$257.98
(+2355%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.0, Growth: 8.8%)
$13.54
(+29%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.9, Growth: 8.8%)
$11.51
(+10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 6.51 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.64
Bull Case
$23.47
(+123%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 7.2
Base Case
$21.34
(+103%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 6.5
Bear Case
$7.26
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.0 to 1.4
Stabilization Target:
$14.12
(+34.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+34.3%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (AFYA)
Bullish
1 Retail Mentions
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 2, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
StockTwits user, using Stock Meadow's scoring model, ranked $AFYA as the 12th best stock in the consumer defensive sector with a score of 84.
Key Retail Themes:
consumer defensive sector performance
AFYA's ranking within the sector
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
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Last updated: November 11, 2026 11:16 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:16 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:16 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AFYA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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