AGM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AGM - Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation
$225.51
0.91 (0.41%)
▲
5d:
-0.29%
30d:
-5.27%
90d:
+24.34%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 02, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AGM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.7% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AGM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.7% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$287.32
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$178.40
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AGM is currently trading at $225.51, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $220.80 to $234.17. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 9.8) compared to its historical average (8.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $229.88. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AGM scores 61/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $257.00 (+14.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $229.88. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AGM scores 61/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $257.00 (+14.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$220.80 -
$234.17
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.9%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (61/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($257.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 61/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$220.80 -
$234.17
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$217.00
Resistance Level
$229.88
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.75
Wall Street Target
$257.00
(+14.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
24.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
20.8%
Profit Margin
56.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.7% premium
PE vs Historical
9.8 vs 8.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$233.85
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$242.51
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$251.48
(+12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$224.50
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 10.8%)
$635.28
(+182%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.7, Growth: 10.8%)
$306.95
(+36%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.3, Growth: 10.8%)
$260.91
(+16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $18.28
Bull Case
$312.75
(+39%)
Analyst growth 26.6%, PE expands to 13.5
Base Case
$284.31
(+26%)
Market implied 26.6%, PE stable at 12.3
Bear Case
$152.73
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 10:10 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:10 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:10 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is AGM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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