AGM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AGM - Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation
$214.79
5.60 (2.68%)
▲
5d:
+0.36%
30d:
-3.52%
90d:
+6.93%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 02, 2026
29d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AGM is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: AGM is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$290.62
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$180.45
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AGM is currently trading at $214.79, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $214.96 to $224.98. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.3) is in line with its historical norms (8.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $203.38, while resistance sits at $223.70.
Market Sentiment: AGM scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $257.00 (+19.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $203.38, while resistance sits at $223.70.
Market Sentiment: AGM scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $257.00 (+19.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$214.96 -
$224.98
Company Quality Score
68/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
89.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($257.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 19% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$214.96 -
$224.98
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$203.38
Resistance Level
$223.70
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.28
Wall Street Target
$257.00
(+19.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
24.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
20.8%
Profit Margin
56.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.8% premium
PE vs Historical
9.3 vs 8.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$218.66
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$222.59
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$226.60
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$214.83
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 10.8%)
$642.53
(+199%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.3, Growth: 10.8%)
$292.36
(+36%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.9, Growth: 10.8%)
$248.50
(+16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.33 | Current EPS (TTM): $18.47
Bull Case
$288.29
(+34%)
Analyst growth 25.3%, PE expands to 12.5
Base Case
$262.08
(+22%)
Market implied 25.3%, PE stable at 11.3
Bear Case
$142.25
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 11:01 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:01 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:01 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AGM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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