AGM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AGM - Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation
$220.84
-0.01 (0.00%)
âŧ
5d:
-5.1%
30d:
+7.48%
90d:
+24.76%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: AGM is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 3.2% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: AGM is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 3.2% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$287.32
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$178.40
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AGM is currently trading at $220.84, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $208.88 to $235.22. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.5) is in line with its historical norms (8.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $219.03. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AGM scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $257.00 (+16.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $219.03. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AGM scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $257.00 (+16.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$208.88 -
$235.22
Company Quality Score
37/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
48.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($257.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 37/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$208.88 -
$235.22
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$219.03
Resistance Level
$240.49
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.54
Wall Street Target
$257.00
(+16.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
24.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
20.8%
Profit Margin
56.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.2% premium
PE vs Historical
9.5 vs 8.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$227.91
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$235.20
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$242.73
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10â9)
PE COMPRESSION
$221.27
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 10.8%)
$632.13
(+186%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.5, Growth: 10.8%)
$300.59
(+36%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.1, Growth: 10.8%)
$255.50
(+16%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.41 | Current EPS (TTM): $17.80
Bull Case
$315.82
(+43%)
Analyst growth 30.0%, PE expands to 13.7
Base Case
$287.10
(+30%)
Market implied 30.0%, PE stable at 12.4
Bear Case
$150.18
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 5:49 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:49 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:49 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AGM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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