AGM
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation
FEDERAL & FEDERALLY-SPONSORED CREDIT AGENCIES
AGM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$174.10
+0.52 (+0.30%)
▲
5d:
-15.31%
30d:
-14.75%
90d:
-24.85%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (57%)
Quality Score
41/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$190.10 – $210.40
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
7.6x
CHEAP
vs 8.8x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$257.00
+47.6% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$171.45 / $209.46
Trend: Sideways
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: AGM is down 15.3% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$294.46
Based on 7.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$182.83
4.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AGM is currently trading at $174.10, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $190.10 to $210.40. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.5) compared to its historical average (8.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 13.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGM is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $171.45. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AGM scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $257.00 (+47.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGM is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $171.45. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AGM scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $257.00 (+47.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$190.10 -
$210.40
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$190.10 -
$210.40
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$171.45
Resistance Level
$209.46
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 47.6% below Wall St target ($257.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.55
Wall Street Target
$257.00
(+47.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.3%
Profit Margin
56.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.6 vs 8.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$165.57
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$157.46
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$149.74
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$174.64
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 11.5%)
$634.91
(+265%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.5, Growth: 11.5%)
$241.23
(+39%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.4, Growth: 11.5%)
$205.04
(+18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.20 | Current EPS (TTM): $18.87
Bull Case
$233.47
(+34%)
Analyst growth 22.3%, PE expands to 10.1
Base Case
$212.24
(+22%)
Market implied 22.3%, PE stable at 9.2
Bear Case
$118.03
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.5 to 8.8
Stabilization Target:
$203.05
(+16.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.6%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (AGM)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 9, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Retirees are facing income shortfalls due to low bond yields and potential Social Security benefit cuts. The article suggests investing in high-quality, dividend-paying equities as a viable alternative.
Key Retail Themes:
Retirement income challenges
Dividend stocks as a solution
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 4:24 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:24 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:24 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AGM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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