AGM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AGM - Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation
$201.42
1.95 (0.98%)
▲
5d:
-2.33%
30d:
-7.25%
90d:
-3.86%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 02, 2026
9d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AGM shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AGM shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$294.46
Based on 7.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$182.83
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AGM is currently trading at $201.42, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $203.57 to $219.32. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.7) is in line with its historical norms (8.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 20.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGM is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $197.82. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AGM scores 73/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $257.00 (+27.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGM is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $197.82. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AGM scores 73/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $257.00 (+27.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$203.57 -
$219.32
Company Quality Score
66/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (73/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.6% below Wall St target ($257.00)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 73/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$203.57 -
$219.32
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$197.82
Resistance Level
$208.85
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.73
Wall Street Target
$257.00
(+27.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
24.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
20.8%
Profit Margin
56.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.7 vs 8.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$200.82
(0%)
2-Year Target
$200.21
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$199.61
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
$201.22
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 11.5%)
$634.91
(+215%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.7, Growth: 11.5%)
$279.08
(+39%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.4, Growth: 11.5%)
$237.22
(+18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.91 | Current EPS (TTM): $18.28
Bull Case
$276.95
(+38%)
Analyst growth 26.2%, PE expands to 12.0
Base Case
$251.77
(+25%)
Market implied 26.2%, PE stable at 10.9
Bear Case
$135.64
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.7 to 8.8
Stabilization Target:
$203.05
(+0.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 12:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:46 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:46 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AGM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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