AGM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AGM - Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation
$186.10
3.03 (1.65%)
▲
5d:
+1.44%
30d:
+5.13%
90d:
+30.36%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AGM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AGM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$244.88
Based on 6.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$152.05
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AGM is currently trading at $186.09, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $175.60 to $183.08. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.6) is in line with its historical norms (8.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGM is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $187.44. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AGM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $219.67 (+20.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGM is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $187.44. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AGM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $219.67 (+20.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$175.60 -
$183.08
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($219.67)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$175.60 -
$183.08
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$172.52
Resistance Level
$187.44
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.57
Wall Street Target
$219.67
(+20.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
18.5%
Profit Margin
56.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.9% premium
PE vs Historical
8.6 vs 8.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$184.72
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$186.38
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$188.06
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$182.03
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 9.4%)
$608.43
(+232%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.6, Growth: 9.4%)
$239.54
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.3, Growth: 9.4%)
$203.61
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.57 | Current EPS (TTM): $17.36
Bull Case
$248.20
(+36%)
Analyst growth 23.0%, PE expands to 11.6
Base Case
$225.64
(+23%)
Market implied 23.0%, PE stable at 10.6
Bear Case
$124.76
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 2:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:51 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AGM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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