ADECOAGRO (AGRO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AGRO - ADECOAGRO S.A.
$11.77
-0.56 (-4.54%)
▼
5d:
+1.47%
30d:
+26.7%
90d:
+0.68%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 17, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AGRO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AGRO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$5.03
Based on -12.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$3.12
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AGRO is currently trading at $11.77, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.37 to $11.57. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 9.4) compared to its historical average (8.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGRO is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $10.64, while resistance sits at $12.79. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: AGRO scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.17 (+11.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGRO is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $10.64, while resistance sits at $12.79. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: AGRO scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.17 (+11.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$9.37 -
$11.57
Company Quality Score
32/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
22.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($13.17)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 32/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.37 -
$11.57
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.64
Resistance Level
$12.79
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.43
Wall Street Target
$13.17
(+11.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
39.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
55.6%
Profit Margin
3.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.2% premium
PE vs Historical
9.4 vs 8.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.26
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$12.78
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$13.32
(+13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$11.72
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: -29.3%)
$18.35
(+56%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.4, Growth: -29.3%)
$8.58
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.0, Growth: -29.3%)
$7.29
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.45 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.38
Bull Case
$27.13
(+131%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 35.7
Base Case
$24.66
(+110%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 32.5
Bear Case
$8.38
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 8:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AGRO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
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