AGRO
ADECOAGRO S.A.
Agricultural Production-Crops
ADECOAGRO (AGRO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$9.05
+0.12 (+1.34%)
▲
5d:
-1.95%
30d:
-14.14%
90d:
+0.0%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence (80%)
Quality Score
53/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$9.29 – $10.36
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
6.1x
CHEAP
vs 8.2x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$13.44
+48.5% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$8.82 / $9.98
Trend: Sideways
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 HOLD: AGRO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$14.30
Based on 3.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.88
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AGRO is currently trading at $9.05, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.29 to $10.36. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.1) compared to its historical average (8.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 55.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGRO is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $8.82. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.44 (+48.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGRO is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $8.82. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.44 (+48.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$9.29 -
$10.36
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$9.29 -
$10.36
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$8.82
Resistance Level
$9.98
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (53/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 48.5% below Wall St target ($13.44)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (53/100) — watch for confirmation
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.07
Wall Street Target
$13.44
(+48.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
39.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
55.6%
Profit Margin
3.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.1 vs 8.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.20
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$7.43
(-18%)
3-Year Target
$6.73
(-26%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→8)
$9.09
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 2.4%)
$31.78
(+251%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.1, Growth: 2.4%)
$9.72
(+7%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.2, Growth: 2.4%)
$8.26
(-9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.90 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.39
Bull Case
$19.65
(+117%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 25.2
Base Case
$17.86
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 22.9
Bear Case
$6.07
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.1 to 8.2
Stabilization Target:
$12.22
(+35.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+35.0%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (AGRO)
Bullish
3 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
2
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 30, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Trader on StockTwits expresses bullish sentiment towards $AGRO, anticipating a price increase of $10 before the dividend day.
Key Retail Themes:
Anticipated price increase
Dividend day
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 4:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:46 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:46 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AGRO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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