Acadia Realty Trust (AKR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AKR - Acadia Realty Trust
$18.68
-0.06 (-0.32%)
▼
5d:
-2.76%
30d:
-8.66%
90d:
-12.18%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AKR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AKR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$6.33
Based on -5.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$3.93
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AKR is currently trading at $18.68, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.22 to $20.65. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 54.9) compared to its historical average (71.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 400.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AKR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $18.45. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AKR scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.71 (+32.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AKR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $18.45. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AKR scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.71 (+32.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$19.22 -
$20.65
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (31/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 32.3% below Wall St target ($24.71)
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$19.22 -
$20.65
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.45
Resistance Level
$19.65
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
54.94
Wall Street Target
$24.71
(+32.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
400.1%
Profit Margin
13.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
54.9 vs 71.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.07
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$15.61
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$14.26
(-24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 55→72)
$18.67
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 54.9, Growth: -15.0%)
$13.62
(+-27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: -15.0%)
$5.06
(-73%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: -15.0%)
$4.30
(-77%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (55x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (55x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 55.12 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.34
Bull Case
$20.61
(+10%)
Analyst growth 0.0%, PE expands to 60.6
Base Case
$18.74
(+0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 55.1
Bear Case
$12.74
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 46.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 54.9 to 71.9
Stabilization Target:
$24.45
(+30.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+30.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 01, 2026 7:04 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:04 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:04 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AKR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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