Alignment Healthcare (ALHC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALHC - Alignment Healthcare, Inc. Common Stock
$12.61
-0.15 (-1.18%)
▼
5d:
-6.9%
30d:
-6.73%
90d:
-37.7%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 24, 2026 at $13.43 · last confirmed Sep 11, 2026
Strength: 8.4/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ALHC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ALHC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.63
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.75
44.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALHC is currently trading at $12.61, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.05 to $13.89. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.8) compared to its historical average (32.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 20.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 142.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALHC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.39. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ALHC scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.08 (+90.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALHC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.39. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ALHC scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.08 (+90.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$13.05 -
$13.89
Company Quality Score
34/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ALHC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 90.9% below Wall St target ($24.08)
- WARNING: Composite score 34/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.05 -
$13.89
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.39
Resistance Level
$13.94
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.76
Wall Street Target
$24.08
(+90.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
31.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
142.9%
Profit Margin
0.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-20.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.8 vs 32.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-20.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.35
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$10.21
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$9.19
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→33)
$17.99
(+43%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 52.0%)
$51.23
(+306%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.8, Growth: 52.0%)
$42.56
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.2, Growth: 52.0%)
$36.17
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (67x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 67.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.19
Bull Case
$28.07
(+123%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 73.9
Base Case
$25.52
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 67.2
Bear Case
$8.68
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 57.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.8 to 32.8
Stabilization Target:
$24.68
(+95.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+95.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 11, 2026 9:10 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:10 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:10 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALHC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
16
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Dawn Christine Maroney
SELL
30000 shares
2026-04-15
John E Kao
SELL
82299 shares
2026-04-13
John E Kao
SELL
215701 shares
2026-04-10
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Advanced ALHC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ALHC price and gamma walls.
