Is UNH stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, UNH is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UNH shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of UNH stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for UNH to be between $399.01 and $426.04. The current price is $390.11.

What is the analyst price target for UNH?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for UNH is $475.23. This implies a potential upside of 23.5% from current levels.

UNH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

UNH - UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INCORPORATED (Delaware)

HOSPITAL & MEDICAL SERVICE PLANS

$390.11

5.26 (1.37%) ▲

5d: -2.89%

30d: -7.9%

90d: +1.99%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 27, 2026

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 13, 2026 at $402.07 · last confirmed Aug 17, 2026

Strength: 7.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UNH shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 13.2%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$588.38

Based on 8.6% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$365.34

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.4x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: UNH is currently trading at $390.11, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $399.01 to $426.04. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.1) is in line with its historical norms (17.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 61.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, UNH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $383.83. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: UNH scores 62/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $475.23 (+23.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $399.01 - $426.04

Company Quality Score 50/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 90.5%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BULLISH: Strong technical setup (62/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 23.5% below Wall St target ($475.23)
WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $399.01 - $426.04

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $383.83

Resistance Level $413.07

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Aug 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 17.15

Wall Street Target $475.23 (+23.5%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 0.4%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 61.5%

Profit Margin 3.1%

Valuation Discount vs History -0.5% cheaper

PE vs Historical 17.2 vs 17.4 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -0.5% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $382.93 (-1%)

2-Year Target $381.01 (-1%)

3-Year Target $379.11 (-2%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 17→17) $384.55 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.1, Growth: 13.2%) $653.85 (+70%)

Base: (SPY PE: 17.2, Growth: 13.2%) $558.84 (+45%)

Bear: (PE: 14.6, Growth: 13.2%) $475.01 (+23%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 25.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $15.35

Bull Case $624.79 (+60%)

Analyst growth 46.2%, PE expands to 27.9

Base Case $567.99 (+46%)

Market implied 46.2%, PE stable at 25.3

Bear Case $264.25 (-32%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.5

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.2 to 17.4

Stabilization Target: $390.38 (+1.4%)

PE Expansion Potential: +1.4%

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Last updated: August 22, 2026 7:48 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:48 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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NEUTRAL

Recent Transactions

Ro Khanna BUY 2026-03-23

Ro Khanna SELL 2026-03-20

Richard McCormick BUY 2026-03-19

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