Is UNH stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, UNH is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UNH shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of UNH stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for UNH to be between $390.06 and $406.24. The current price is $379.09.

What is the analyst price target for UNH?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for UNH is $475.23. This implies a potential upside of 25.4% from current levels.

UNH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

UNH - UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INCORPORATED (Delaware)

HOSPITAL & MEDICAL SERVICE PLANS

$379.09

-9.19 (-2.37%) ▼

5d: -5.45%

30d: -6.53%

90d: -6.52%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 27, 2026

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $397.14 · last confirmed Sep 11, 2026

Strength: 7.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UNH shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 13.2%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$588.38

Based on 8.6% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$365.34

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.4x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: UNH is currently trading at $379.09, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $390.06 to $406.24. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.9) is in line with its historical norms (17.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 61.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, UNH is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $375.90. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $475.23 (+25.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $390.06 - $406.24

Company Quality Score 49/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 79.5%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (48/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 25.4% below Wall St target ($475.23)
WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $390.06 - $406.24

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $375.90

Resistance Level $406.53

Current Trend Uptrend

Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 16.90

Wall Street Target $475.23 (+25.4%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 0.4%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 61.5%

Profit Margin 3.1%

Valuation Discount vs History -1.0% cheaper

PE vs Historical 16.9 vs 17.4 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -1.0% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $375.30 (-1%)

2-Year Target $371.55 (-2%)

3-Year Target $367.83 (-3%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 17→17) $378.78 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: 13.2%) $657.11 (+73%)

Base: (SPY PE: 16.9, Growth: 13.2%) $550.48 (+45%)

Bear: (PE: 14.4, Growth: 13.2%) $467.91 (+23%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 25.25 | Current EPS (TTM): $15.38

Bull Case $623.04 (+64%)

Analyst growth 45.9%, PE expands to 27.8

Base Case $566.40 (+49%)

Market implied 45.9%, PE stable at 25.3

Bear Case $264.03 (-30%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.5

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.9 to 17.4

Stabilization Target: $390.38 (+3.0%)

PE Expansion Potential: +3.0%

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Last updated: September 11, 2026 9:00 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:00 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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NEUTRAL

Recent Transactions

Ro Khanna BUY 2026-03-23

Ro Khanna SELL 2026-03-20

Richard McCormick BUY 2026-03-19

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