CVS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CVS - CVS HEALTH CORPORATION
$104.43
-0.79 (-0.75%)
▼
5d:
-3.07%
30d:
-0.36%
90d:
+25.38%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
1d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CVS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CVS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$135.19
Based on 8.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$83.94
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CVS is currently trading at $104.43, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $103.02 to $107.53. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 12.4) compared to its historical average (10.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVS is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $103.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVS is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $103.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$103.02 -
$107.53
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.7%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($113.50)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 4.9% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$103.02 -
$107.53
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$103.01
Resistance Level
$110.68
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.40
Wall Street Target
$113.50
(+8.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
63.1%
Profit Margin
0.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.9% premium
PE vs Historical
12.4 vs 10.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$109.55
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$114.91
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$120.55
(+15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$104.00
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 13.0%)
$251.75
(+141%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.4, Growth: 13.0%)
$150.61
(+44%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.5, Growth: 13.0%)
$128.02
(+23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (47x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 46.56 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.26
Bull Case
$231.48
(+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 51.2
Base Case
$210.44
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 46.6
Bear Case
$71.55
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 39.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 2:54 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:54 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:54 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CVS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-24
Michael T. McCaul
BUY
2026-02-20
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