The Allstate (ALL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$261.12
+7.33 (+2.89%)
â˛
5d:
-0.15%
30d:
+12.26%
90d:
+2.06%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (41%)
Quality Score
41/100
Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
30-Day Fair Range
$231.40 â $259.84
Position: SLIGHTLY HIGH
Forward P/E & Valuation
9.2x
FAIR
vs 8.7x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$274.95
+5.3% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$249.21 / $281.11
Trend: Sideways
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ALL is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.9% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Nov 2, 2026 at $262.03 · last confirmed Nov 10, 2026
Strength: 7.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$133.38
Based on -11.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$82.82
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALL is currently trading at $261.12, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $231.40 to $259.84. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.2) is in line with its historical norms (8.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALL is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $249.21, while resistance sits at $281.11.
Market Sentiment: ALL scores 28/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALL is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $249.21, while resistance sits at $281.11.
Market Sentiment: ALL scores 28/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$231.40 -
$259.84
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
41.4%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$231.40 -
$259.84
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support Level
$249.21
Resistance Level
$281.11
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding ALL? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (28/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($274.95)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.9% growth with 0.5% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.20
Wall Street Target
$274.95
(+5.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-42.4%
Profit Margin
16.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.9% premium
PE vs Historical
9.2 vs 8.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$266.08
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$271.14
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$276.29
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9â9)
PE COMPRESSION
$261.17
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -25.9%)
$410.76
(+57%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.2, Growth: -25.9%)
$190.36
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.8, Growth: -25.9%)
$161.80
(-38%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 5.76 | Current EPS (TTM): $44.09
Bull Case
$179.64
(-31%)
Analyst growth -35.7%, PE expands to 6.3
Base Case
$163.31
(-38%)
Market implied -35.7%, PE stable at 5.8
Bear Case
$172.58
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (ALL)
Bullish
1 Retail Mentions
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 3, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Allstate Corporation (ALL) is expected to report Q3 2026 earnings on Nov. 4, with consensus estimates suggesting a 37.1% year-over-year decline in earnings but a 4.9% increase in revenues. The article highlights the company's robust history of earnings beats and positive Earnings ESP, as well as growth in net premiums earned and net investment income.
Key Retail Themes:
earnings beats
net premiums earned
net investment income
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 10, 2026 9:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:46 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:46 PM
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