PGR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PGR - Progressive Corporation
$211.42
-1.86 (-0.87%)
▼
5d:
-1.13%
30d:
-6.16%
90d:
+5.04%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 14, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PGR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PGR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$192.57
Based on -1.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$119.57
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PGR is currently trading at $211.42, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $209.00 to $228.38. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.0) is in line with its historical norms (12.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PGR is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $203.11, while resistance sits at $223.10.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PGR is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $203.11, while resistance sits at $223.10.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$209.00 -
$228.38
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($230.24)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$209.00 -
$228.38
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$203.11
Resistance Level
$223.10
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.98
Wall Street Target
$230.24
(+8.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
5.0%
Profit Margin
12.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.1% premium
PE vs Historical
13.0 vs 12.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$211.63
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$211.84
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$212.05
(+0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$210.78
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: -7.3%)
$269.27
(+27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.0, Growth: -7.3%)
$168.58
(-20%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.0, Growth: -7.3%)
$143.29
(-32%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 10.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $19.93
Bull Case
$191.76
(-9%)
Analyst growth -18.3%, PE expands to 11.8
Base Case
$174.33
(-18%)
Market implied -18.3%, PE stable at 10.7
Bear Case
$145.03
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 2:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:49 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:49 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PGR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-30
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
Carl G Joyce
SELL
270 shares
2026-03-20
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Advanced PGR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PGR price and gamma walls.
