What is the fair value of PGR stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for PGR to be between $210.53 and $220.96. The current price is $217.62.

What is the analyst price target for PGR?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for PGR is $232.00. This implies a potential upside of 6.6% from current levels.

Progressive (PGR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

PGR - Progressive Corporation

FIRE, MARINE & CASUALTY INSURANCE

$217.62

1.43 (0.66%) ▲

5d: -2.79%

30d: +4.94%

90d: +7.59%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 21, 2026

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $218.95 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026

Strength: 8.2/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Bottom Line:
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: PGR is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.0% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: -9.3%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$184.13

Based on -2.7% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$114.33

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: PGR is currently trading at $217.62, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $210.53 to $220.96. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.4) is in line with its historical norms (13.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, PGR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $212.63. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR

Historical Trading Range $210.53 - $220.96

Company Quality Score 39/100 (SELL)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 68.6%

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All Signals

NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (44/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($232.00)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
WARNING: Composite score 39/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $210.53 - $220.96

Current vs Trading Range FAIR

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $212.63

Resistance Level $225.45

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 13.36

Wall Street Target $232.00 (+6.6%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 7.3%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 5.0%

Profit Margin 12.8%

Valuation Premium vs History +1.0% premium

PE vs Historical 13.4 vs 13.0 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +1.0% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $219.80 (+1%)

2-Year Target $221.99 (+2%)

3-Year Target $224.21 (+3%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 13→13) PE COMPRESSION $218.24 (+0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: -9.3%) $245.13 (+13%)

Base: (SPY PE: 13.4, Growth: -9.3%) $162.31 (-25%)

Bear: (PE: 11.4, Growth: -9.3%) $137.97 (-37%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

Trailing PE: 10.85 | Current EPS (TTM): $19.93

Bull Case $194.43 (-11%)

Analyst growth -18.2%, PE expands to 11.9

Base Case $176.75 (-19%)

Market implied -18.2%, PE stable at 10.9

Bear Case $147.01 (-32%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.2

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: September 11, 2026 10:23 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:23 PM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

Sells

Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Ro Khanna BUY 2026-03-30

Ro Khanna SELL 2026-03-23

Carl G Joyce SELL 270 shares 2026-03-20

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Advanced PGR Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PGR price and gamma walls.

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