Is PGR stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, PGR is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PGR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of PGR stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for PGR to be between $208.33 and $219.80. The current price is $221.35.

What is the analyst price target for PGR?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for PGR is $230.57. This implies a potential upside of 4.2% from current levels.

Progressive (PGR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

PGR - Progressive Corporation

FIRE, MARINE & CASUALTY INSURANCE

$221.35

-0.58 (-0.26%) ▼

5d: +3.7%

30d: +6.96%

90d: +6.9%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your PGR Gains

Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 14, 2026 0d

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 14, 2026 at $209.53 · last confirmed Oct 20, 2026

Strength: 4.6/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PGR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

PGR is flagged by 1 backtest-validated scanner today

SPY Bullish (stocks from this scanner have beaten SPY by a median 0.37% over the next 20 trading days; PGR has been on it 2 days). Backtested on 8 months of scanner history vs the S&P 500, as of 2026-10-21.

See all of today's Best Signals in the free scanner →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: -11.8%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$169.58

Based on -3.9% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$105.29

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.8x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: PGR is currently trading at $221.35, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $208.33 to $219.80. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.6) is in line with its historical norms (12.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth.

Technical Outlook: Technically, PGR is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $223.78. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: PGR scores 61/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $208.33 - $219.80

Company Quality Score 49/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 60.5%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
BULLISH: Strong technical setup (61/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($230.57)
BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.0% growth with 3.0% revenue growth
WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $208.33 - $219.80

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $201.02

Resistance Level $223.78

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Technical data as of Oct 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 13.58

Wall Street Target $230.57 (+4.2%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 3.0%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -2.1%

Profit Margin 12.7%

Valuation Premium vs History +2.0% premium

PE vs Historical 13.6 vs 12.8 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +2.0% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $225.78 (+2%)

2-Year Target $230.29 (+4%)

3-Year Target $234.90 (+6%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 14→13) PE COMPRESSION $221.43 (0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 19.9, Growth: -11.8%) $236.01 (+7%)

Base: (SPY PE: 13.6, Growth: -11.8%) $161.36 (-27%)

Bear: (PE: 11.5, Growth: -11.8%) $137.16 (-38%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

Trailing PE: 11.18 | Current EPS (TTM): $19.85

Bull Case $200.48 (-9%)

Analyst growth -17.9%, PE expands to 12.3

Base Case $182.25 (-18%)

Market implied -17.9%, PE stable at 11.2

Bear Case $150.91 (-32%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.5

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: October 22, 2026 6:34 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:34 AM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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Advanced PGR Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PGR price and gamma walls.

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