Progressive (PGR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$231.75
+4.23 (+1.86%)
▲
5d:
+1.15%
30d:
+5.21%
90d:
+11.76%
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70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Oct 14, 2026
0d
Protect PGR Gains
Updated Nov 10, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (50%)
Quality Score
41/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$216.05 – $230.68
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
14.3x
FAIR
vs 12.9x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$232.38
+0.3% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$224.30 / $241.02
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PGR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Nov 6, 2026 at $228.80 · last confirmed Nov 9, 2026
Strength: 4.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$168.47
Based on -4.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$104.61
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PGR is currently trading at $231.75, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $216.05 to $230.68. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 14.3) compared to its historical average (12.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PGR is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $224.30, while resistance sits at $241.02.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PGR is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $224.30, while resistance sits at $241.02.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$216.05 -
$230.68
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
49.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$216.05 -
$230.68
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$224.30
Resistance Level
$241.02
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding PGR? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (44/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($232.38)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.5% growth with 3.0% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 40/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.30
Wall Street Target
$232.38
(+0.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-1.8%
Profit Margin
12.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.5% premium
PE vs Historical
14.3 vs 12.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$239.86
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$248.26
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$256.95
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$231.72
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -12.1%)
$234.56
(+1%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.3, Growth: -12.1%)
$168.95
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.2, Growth: -12.1%)
$143.60
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 11.46 | Current EPS (TTM): $19.85
Bull Case
$204.27
(-12%)
Analyst growth -18.4%, PE expands to 12.6
Base Case
$185.70
(-20%)
Market implied -18.4%, PE stable at 11.5
Bear Case
$154.71
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (PGR)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 3, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
A financial analyst on StockTwits expresses optimism about the growth of Progressive Corporation ($PGR) insurance agencies after a period of stabilization.
Key Retail Themes:
Insurance industry
Company growth
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 8:53 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:53 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:53 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PGR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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