Progressive (PGR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PGR - Progressive Corporation
$210.96
3.65 (1.76%)
▲
5d:
+4.35%
30d:
-4.34%
90d:
-9.16%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
18d
Get Alerted When PGR Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PGR is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: PGR is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$177.85
Based on -3.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$110.43
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PGR is currently trading at $210.96, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $209.16 to $221.50. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.9) is in line with its historical norms (12.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PGR is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $215.56. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PGR scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PGR is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $215.56. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PGR scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$209.16 -
$221.50
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
86.7%
Protect Your Profits
Holding PGR? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($231.38)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 17% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$209.16 -
$221.50
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$200.96
Resistance Level
$215.56
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.95
Wall Street Target
$231.38
(+9.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
5.0%
Profit Margin
12.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.4% premium
PE vs Historical
13.0 vs 12.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$211.80
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$212.65
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$213.50
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$210.98
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: -10.0%)
$242.21
(+15%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.0, Growth: -10.0%)
$153.79
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.0, Growth: -10.0%)
$130.72
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 10.40 | Current EPS (TTM): $19.94
Bull Case
$186.26
(-12%)
Analyst growth -18.3%, PE expands to 11.4
Base Case
$169.33
(-20%)
Market implied -18.3%, PE stable at 10.4
Bear Case
$140.97
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 01, 2026 11:03 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:03 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:03 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is PGR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Insurance - Property & Casualty Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Insurance - Property & Casualty by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
ALL
The Allstate Corporation |
BUY
25 analysts |
$276 | 55 HOLD |
|
CB
Chubb Ltd |
HOLD
25 analysts |
$366 | 63 BUY |
|
TRV
The Travelers Companies … |
SELL
28 analysts |
$361 | 53 HOLD |
|
HIG
Hartford Financial Servi… |
BUY
19 analysts |
$144 | 48 HOLD |
|
HCI
HCI Group Inc |
STRONG BUY
5 analysts |
$242 | 61 BUY |
Advanced PGR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PGR price and gamma walls.
