What is the fair value of PGR stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for PGR to be between $206.22 and $219.67. The current price is $219.28.

What is the analyst price target for PGR?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for PGR is $229.78. This implies a potential upside of 4.3% from current levels.

PGR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

PGR - Progressive Corporation

FIRE, MARINE & CASUALTY INSURANCE

$219.28

-1.06 (-0.48%) ▼

5d: +4.62%

30d: +5.9%

90d: +10.21%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 14, 2026

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 6, 2026 at $215.33 · last confirmed Aug 21, 2026

Strength: 5.2/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Bottom Line:
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: PGR is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.5% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: -7.6%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$190.81

Based on -1.8% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$118.48

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.9x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: PGR is currently trading at $219.28, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $206.22 to $219.67. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.5) is in line with its historical norms (12.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, PGR is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $223.80. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 54/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY HIGH

Historical Trading Range $206.22 - $219.67

Company Quality Score 48/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 61.4%

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All Signals

NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (54/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($229.78)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $206.22 - $219.67

Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY HIGH

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $203.18

Resistance Level $223.80

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Technical data as of Aug 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 13.54

Wall Street Target $229.78 (+4.3%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 7.3%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 5.0%

Profit Margin 12.8%

Valuation Premium vs History +1.5% premium

PE vs Historical 13.5 vs 12.9 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +1.5% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $223.65 (+2%)

2-Year Target $227.00 (+3%)

3-Year Target $230.40 (+5%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 14→13) PE COMPRESSION $219.46 (0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.1, Growth: -7.6%) $257.47 (+17%)

Base: (SPY PE: 13.5, Growth: -7.6%) $173.75 (-21%)

Bear: (PE: 11.5, Growth: -7.6%) $147.69 (-33%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

Trailing PE: 10.90 | Current EPS (TTM): $19.94

Bull Case $195.00 (-11%)

Analyst growth -18.4%, PE expands to 12.0

Base Case $177.27 (-19%)

Market implied -18.4%, PE stable at 10.9

Bear Case $147.74 (-33%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.3

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: August 22, 2026 7:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:51 PM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

Sells

Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Ro Khanna BUY 2026-03-30

Ro Khanna SELL 2026-03-23

Carl G Joyce SELL 270 shares 2026-03-20

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Advanced PGR Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PGR price and gamma walls.

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