Ally Financial (ALLY) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALLY - Ally Financial Inc.
$37.65
0.03 (0.08%)
▲
5d:
-2.81%
30d:
-10.04%
90d:
-16.92%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
17d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ALLY shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ALLY shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$81.50
Based on 13.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$50.60
25.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALLY is currently trading at $37.65, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $39.03 to $42.80. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.9) compared to its historical average (6.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 13.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALLY is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $36.65. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ALLY scores 23/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $51.95 (+38.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALLY is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $36.65. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ALLY scores 23/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $51.95 (+38.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$39.03 -
$42.80
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (23/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 38.0% below Wall St target ($51.95)
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$39.03 -
$42.80
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.65
Resistance Level
$40.49
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.93
Wall Street Target
$51.95
(+38.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.5%
Profit Margin
18.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.9 vs 6.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$35.88
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$34.19
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$32.59
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$37.94
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 22.8%)
$239.99
(+537%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.9, Growth: 22.8%)
$69.72
(+85%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.0, Growth: 22.8%)
$59.26
(+57%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.85 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.25
Bull Case
$61.86
(+64%)
Analyst growth 49.5%, PE expands to 9.7
Base Case
$56.23
(+49%)
Market implied 49.5%, PE stable at 8.9
Bear Case
$25.58
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.9 to 6.9
Stabilization Target:
$43.83
(+16.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 6:05 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:05 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:05 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALLY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Douglas R Timmerman
SELL
39675 shares
2026-04-17
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