Ally Financial (ALLY) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALLY - Ally Financial Inc.
$38.80
0.11 (0.28%)
▲
5d:
+2.84%
30d:
+0.57%
90d:
-9.6%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ALLY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ALLY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$76.26
Based on 13.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$47.35
18.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALLY is currently trading at $38.80, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.23 to $39.82. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.3) is in line with its historical norms (6.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 13.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALLY is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $38.87. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ALLY scores 68/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.23 (+24.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALLY is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $38.87. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ALLY scores 68/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.23 (+24.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$37.23 -
$39.82
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (68/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.7% below Wall St target ($48.23)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 68/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$37.23 -
$39.82
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.17
Resistance Level
$38.87
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.35
Wall Street Target
$48.23
(+24.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.5%
Profit Margin
18.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.4 vs 6.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$37.80
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$36.93
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$36.08
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$38.66
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 22.3%)
$221.26
(+472%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.3, Growth: 22.3%)
$70.71
(+83%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.4, Growth: 22.3%)
$60.10
(+55%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.93 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.25
Bull Case
$59.91
(+55%)
Analyst growth 43.4%, PE expands to 9.8
Base Case
$54.46
(+41%)
Market implied 43.4%, PE stable at 8.9
Bear Case
$25.82
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.3 to 6.8
Stabilization Target:
$41.45
(+7.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 10:02 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:02 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:02 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALLY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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