Alerus Financial (ALRS) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALRS - Alerus Financial Corporation Common Stock
$33.27
0.34 (1.03%)
▲
5d:
-0.3%
30d:
-1.68%
90d:
+11.38%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ALRS trades at premium valuation expecting 5.4% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: ALRS trades at premium valuation expecting 5.4% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.65
Based on -1.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.55
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALRS is currently trading at $33.27, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.87 to $33.68. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.8) compared to its historical average (10.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALRS is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $33.93. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALRS is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $33.93. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$32.87 -
$33.68
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
31th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.3%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ALRS? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 31th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($35.40)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.4% growth which is achievable
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (45/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$32.87 -
$33.68
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.19
(6.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$32.27
Resistance Level
$33.93
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.80
Wall Street Target
$35.40
(+6.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3.8%
Profit Margin
11.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.4% premium
PE vs Historical
11.8 vs 10.1
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$35.07
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$36.96
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$38.96
(+17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$33.35
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: -6.5%)
$46.50
(+40%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.8, Growth: -6.5%)
$27.20
(-18%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.0, Growth: -6.5%)
$23.12
(-31%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.49 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.08
Bull Case
$72.45
(+118%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 33.5
Base Case
$65.86
(+98%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 30.5
Bear Case
$22.39
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 2:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:06 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALRS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced ALRS Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ALRS price and gamma walls.
