ALRS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALRS - Alerus Financial Corporation Common Stock
$31.26
-0.06 (-0.19%)
▼
5d:
+0.45%
30d:
+5.32%
90d:
+22.59%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
15d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ALRS trades at premium valuation expecting 5.6% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: ALRS trades at premium valuation expecting 5.6% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$23.32
Based on -2.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.48
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALRS is currently trading at $31.26, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $29.53 to $31.10. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.3) compared to its historical average (9.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALRS is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $31.86. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALRS is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $31.86. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$29.53 -
$31.10
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
35th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
50.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ALRS? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 35th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($31.00)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.6% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$29.53 -
$31.10
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.19
(7.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$30.13
Resistance Level
$31.86
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.31
Wall Street Target
$31.00
(-0.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
71.2%
Profit Margin
11.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.6% premium
PE vs Historical
11.3 vs 9.6
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$33.01
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$34.86
(+12%)
3-Year Target
$36.81
(+18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$31.26
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -8.9%)
$45.54
(+46%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.3, Growth: -8.9%)
$23.64
(-24%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.6, Growth: -8.9%)
$20.07
(-36%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.83 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.05
Bull Case
$68.90
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 32.8
Base Case
$62.64
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 29.8
Bear Case
$21.30
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 6:02 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:02 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:02 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALRS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced ALRS Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ALRS price and gamma walls.
