Is ALRS stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, ALRS is currently a HOLD with low confidence. 📊 HOLD: ALRS is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.

What is the fair value of ALRS stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for ALRS to be between $32.17 and $33.32. The current price is $32.67.

What is the analyst price target for ALRS?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for ALRS is $35.00. This implies a potential upside of 7.1% from current levels.

Alerus Financial (ALRS) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

ALRS - Alerus Financial Corporation Common Stock

NATIONAL COMMERCIAL BANKS

$32.67

0.94 (2.96%) ▲

5d: +1.55%

30d: -1.92%

90d: +4.98%

HOLD

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 29, 2026 26d

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ALRS is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: -6.5%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$26.92

Based on -1.2% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$16.71

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.2x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: ALRS is currently trading at $32.67, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.17 to $33.32. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.6) compared to its historical average (10.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, ALRS is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $33.03. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: ALRS scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (16th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR

Historical Trading Range $32.17 - $33.32

Company Quality Score 68/100 (BUY)

Options IV Signal 16th percentile (LOW)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 83.5%

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All Signals

NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 16th percentile)
BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($35.00)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 16% over 20 days — wait for relative strength

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $32.17 - $33.32

Current vs Trading Range FAIR

Expected Move (7 Days) ±$1.75 (5.4%)

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $30.84

Resistance Level $33.04

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Oct 2, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 11.59

Wall Street Target $35.00 (+7.1%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 7.2%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 3.8%

Profit Margin 11.5%

Valuation Premium vs History +4.4% premium

PE vs Historical 11.6 vs 10.2 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +4.4% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $34.11 (+4%)

2-Year Target $35.61 (+9%)

3-Year Target $37.17 (+14%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 12→10) PE COMPRESSION $32.73 (+0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.4, Growth: -6.5%) $47.03 (+44%)

Base: (SPY PE: 11.6, Growth: -6.5%) $26.71 (-18%)

Bear: (PE: 9.8, Growth: -6.5%) $22.70 (-31%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 29.38 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.08

Bull Case $69.81 (+114%)

Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 32.3

Base Case $63.46 (+94%)

Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 29.4

Bear Case $21.58 (-34%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.0

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: October 02, 2026 6:58 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:58 PM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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