Alto Ingredients (ALTO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$3.66
-0.05 (-1.35%)
▼
5d:
-2.14%
30d:
+0.0%
90d:
-13.27%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (51%)
Quality Score
43/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$3.56 – $3.75
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
11.1x
FAIR
vs 12.1x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$8.33
+127.7% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$3.45 / $3.97
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ALTO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$3.12
Based on -4.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1.94
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALTO is currently trading at $3.66, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.56 to $3.75. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.1) is in line with its historical norms (12.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALTO is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3.45, while resistance sits at $3.96.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.33 (+127.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALTO is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3.45, while resistance sits at $3.96.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.33 (+127.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$3.56 -
$3.75
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.0%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$3.56 -
$3.75
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$3.45
Resistance Level
$3.97
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 13, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (47/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 127.7% below Wall St target ($8.33)
- WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.09
Wall Street Target
$8.33
(+127.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-13.9%
Profit Margin
5.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.1 vs 12.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.56
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$3.46
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$3.36
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→12)
$3.67
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -13.2%)
$4.78
(+31%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.1, Growth: -13.2%)
$2.67
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.4, Growth: -13.2%)
$2.27
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 5.71 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.65
Bull Case
$2.07
(-43%)
Analyst growth -49.2%, PE expands to 6.3
Base Case
$1.88
(-49%)
Market implied -49.2%, PE stable at 5.7
Bear Case
$2.52
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.1 to 12.1
Stabilization Target:
$3.99
(+9.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.1%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (ALTO)
Bullish
4 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
3 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 5, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Alto Ingredients (ALTO) reported strong Q3 earnings, beating estimates and generating $21M in adjusted EBITDA. The company's net 45Z tax credit earnings are expected to reach $20M in 2026, and strategic investments aim to increase production capacity and reduce costs.
Key Retail Themes:
Strong financial performance
Tax credit momentum
Strategic investments
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 15, 2026 3:50 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:50 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:50 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALTO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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