ALTO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALTO - Alto Ingredients, Inc. Common Stock
$4.08
0.08 (2.13%)
▲
5d:
-2.74%
30d:
-8.43%
90d:
-23.11%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 26, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ALTO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ALTO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$3.17
Based on -4.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1.97
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALTO is currently trading at $4.08, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.12 to $4.91. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.1) is in line with its historical norms (12.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALTO is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3.92, while resistance sits at $4.39.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 59/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.00 (+125.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALTO is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3.92, while resistance sits at $4.39.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 59/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.00 (+125.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$4.12 -
$4.91
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (59/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 125.6% below Wall St target ($9.00)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (59/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.12 -
$4.91
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.92
Resistance Level
$4.40
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 26, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.09
Wall Street Target
$9.00
(+125.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-66.2%
Profit Margin
5.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.1 vs 12.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.96
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$3.93
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$3.91
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
$3.97
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: -13.2%)
$4.82
(+21%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.1, Growth: -13.2%)
$2.91
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.3, Growth: -13.2%)
$2.47
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.55 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.64
Bull Case
$2.38
(-40%)
Analyst growth -48.4%, PE expands to 7.2
Base Case
$2.16
(-46%)
Market implied -48.4%, PE stable at 6.6
Bear Case
$2.85
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.1 to 12.3
Stabilization Target:
$4.06
(+1.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 26, 2026 4:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:06 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALTO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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