Alto Ingredients (ALTO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALTO - Alto Ingredients, Inc. Common Stock
$3.79
0.02 (0.53%)
▲
5d:
+3.27%
30d:
-5.96%
90d:
-32.92%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
29d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ALTO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ALTO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$3.17
Based on -4.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1.97
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALTO is currently trading at $3.79, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.78 to $4.09. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.5) is in line with its historical norms (12.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALTO is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3.53, while resistance sits at $3.96.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.33 (+119.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALTO is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3.53, while resistance sits at $3.96.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.33 (+119.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$3.78 -
$4.09
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (57/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 119.9% below Wall St target ($8.33)
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$3.78 -
$4.09
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.53
Resistance Level
$3.96
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 5, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.48
Wall Street Target
$8.33
(+119.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-66.2%
Profit Margin
5.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.5 vs 12.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.71
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$3.63
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$3.55
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→12)
$3.80
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.7, Growth: -13.2%)
$4.74
(+25%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.5, Growth: -13.2%)
$2.76
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.8, Growth: -13.2%)
$2.35
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 5.63 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.67
Bull Case
$2.07
(-45%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 6.2
Base Case
$1.89
(-50%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 5.6
Bear Case
$2.56
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.5 to 12.3
Stabilization Target:
$4.06
(+7.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 05, 2026 6:24 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:24 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:24 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALTO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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