Alto Ingredients (ALTO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALTO - Alto Ingredients, Inc. Common Stock
$4.09
0.13 (3.28%)
▲
5d:
-0.37%
30d:
-2.15%
90d:
-26.17%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ALTO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ALTO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$3.17
Based on -4.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1.97
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALTO is currently trading at $4.09, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.99 to $4.27. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.0) is in line with its historical norms (12.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALTO is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3.88, while resistance sits at $4.22. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: ALTO scores 61/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.00 (+127.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALTO is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3.88, while resistance sits at $4.22. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: ALTO scores 61/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.00 (+127.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$3.99 -
$4.27
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
95.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (61/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 127.3% below Wall St target ($9.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$3.99 -
$4.27
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.88
Resistance Level
$4.23
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.00
Wall Street Target
$9.00
(+127.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-66.2%
Profit Margin
5.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.0 vs 12.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.92
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$3.89
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$3.85
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
$3.95
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: -13.2%)
$4.86
(+23%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.0, Growth: -13.2%)
$2.89
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.2, Growth: -13.2%)
$2.45
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 5.82 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.67
Bull Case
$2.15
(-46%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 6.4
Base Case
$1.95
(-51%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 5.8
Bear Case
$2.65
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.0 to 12.3
Stabilization Target:
$4.06
(+2.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 15, 2026 4:52 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:52 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:52 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALTO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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